Blue Jays brass will look like geniuses if Jesús Sánchez can beat these projections

It was a bit of a shock last week when the Toronto Blue Jays made a move to try and compensate for the loss of Anthony Santander. The Blue Jays swapped outfielder Joey Loperfido for another outfielder, Jesús Sánchez in a deal with the Houston Astros.

Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins spoke to Toronto media following the deal and talked about the potential power that Sánchez could tap into, especially against right-handed pitching. And should Sánchez do just that, the Blue Jays brass will come off looking like geniuses for this move. Especially if Sánchez can beat the current projections for 2026.

Blue Jays brass will look like geniuses if Jesús Sánchez can beat these projections

The 28-year-old Sánchez is expected to hit anywhere between as low as 13 homeruns (projected by Steamer) and as high as 18 home run (projected by ZiPS). Those totals also represent his lows and highs in an individual season since making his big league debut in 2020. Since 2021, Sánchez has averaged 14.6 home runs per year, with 73 career big league fly's.

The Blue Jays are hoping he can bring closer to the 18 homer pop, especially in the absence of Anthony Santander and Bo Bichette. Last year, Bichette (who left in free agency for the Mets) hit 18 home runs, finishing fifth on the team. Santander missed most of last season, hitting six home runs in 54 games and will once again miss up to six months to recover from shoulder surgery. Last season, Sánchez hit 14 home runs, with 13 of them coming against right-handed pitchers.

His splits overall showcased much better results against righties as he slashed .251/.318/.421 with a .739 OPS and a .170 ISO. That .170 ISO against right-handers matches what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. achieved in that statistical category last season, which was sixth on the team. Ahead of Guerrero were Daulton Varsho (.359), Davis Schneider (.272), George Springer (.261), Addison Barger (.231) and Joey Loperfido (.211). Of course not all of these guys played a full season, but they do lineup with what the Blue Jays will likely roll out when they look at platoon roles and getting the best situational matchups in 2026.

Other numbers that stick out that the Blue Jays would likely love to see Sánchez beat the projections on are his strike out and walk rates. Most projections have him at a 24% strikeout rate. And while that's fair based over his career average of 26.1%, he brought those numbers down to 22.1% in 2025, which was right at the league average rate. In terms of walks, Sánchez was league average last year and projected to be again in 2026, but he had a better walk rate against righties and with the Blue Jays limiting his at-bats against left-handed pitchers, those numbers should only continue to improve.

If Sánchez can finish with higher numbers than he is projected to in home runs, ISO and his walk rate, while striking out at a rate lower than projected, this trade will could be looked back on as an absolute steal of a deal by Atkins and the Blue Jays front office.