Assessing how many wins the Blue Jays will need to make the playoffs

The 2026 American League playoff race is shaping up to be unforgettable for all the wrong reasons. Instead of several elite teams competing for seeding, a half-dozen sub-.500 teams are jockeying for the final Wild Card spot. 

One of those teams is the Toronto Blue Jays, who entered Friday (Aug. 21) riding high off a rare series win over the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. They are just 0.5 games back of that final playoff spot with a 63-66 record that is trending in the right direction. 

If the Blue Jays were in the National League, they would be 5.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot and effectively dead barring a miracle. Instead, they’re right in the thick of things with about five weeks of baseball left to be played. 

How many games do the Blue Jays need to win to make the playoffs?

The 2017 Minnesota Twins hold the record for the fewest wins to secure an AL Wild Card spot with 85—a mark that appears extremely likely to be broken this season. 

The Blue Jays would need to go 22-11 over their final 33 games to reach 85 wins. Given who is featured in their remaining schedule, this would likely guarantee they wind up back in the postseason when it’s all said and done. 

Still, winning two thirds of your games as a major league baseball team is hard regardless of who you’re playing. The beauty of baseball is that any team can win on any given night. All it takes is a hot pitcher or an unlucky bounce to turn a would-be win into a loss. 

Going 20-13 to finish with 83 wins is probably a more realistic goal. The Blue Jays don’t deserve to make the playoffs if they can’t play .600-ish baseball over a five-week stretch that is shaping up to be entirely against teams with sub-.500 records. 

But will 83 wins be enough? Maybe, but not having the tie-breaker advantages over many teams in the race could hurt the Blue Jays if it comes down to that. 

They’ve already lost the season series against the Minnesota Twins as well as the Texas Rangers, despite still having three games left to play with them. Things with the Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, and Cleveland Guardians have yet to be decided, so taking care of business in those head-to-head matchups will be of the utmost importance. 

The Blue Jays’ margin for error moving forward is incredibly slim. Every win matters, so manager John Schneider will need to be ruthless in his decision-making—this team can’t afford any more losses directly attributable to poor defensive play, for example.

Ultimately, 83 wins will likely be enough to be in the conversation right at the end. Getting to 84 or 85 would significantly improve their chances, especially when considering the multiple tie-breaker scenarios that could be at play.

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