Are Blue Jays going to let John Schneider enter 2025 as a lame-duck manager?

It feels like the Toronto Blue Jays are at a tipping point this winter. Unable to land any of the big-name free agents they've reportedly been involved with, it's difficult to see how the team plans to compete in the American League East in 2025.

As the Blue Jays wade through the muddied waters of the offseason, there are plenty of contract situations that remain fuzzy and out of focus. First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., still without an extension, is in the same boat as his teammate, Bo Bichette. Both players will see their contracts expire after the 2025 season unless an extension is reached.

They're joined by team president and CEO Mark Shapiro and manager John Schneider; both of whom will see their contracts run out this year. Will the Blue Jays let Schneider, who just completed his second full season as Toronto's bench boss, head into 2025 without any promise of employment beyond this year?

Blue Jays manager John Schneider could be a lame-duck manager in 2025

After taking over for Charlie Montoyo on an interim basis halfway through the 2022 campaign, the team inked Schneider to a three-year contract in October of that year. It was all smiles and pats on the back after Schneider led the Jays to two consecutive postseason appearances. But after two playoff disappointments and a disastrous 2024, things have gotten a little more sour since then.

Whatever your feelings about Schneider, if the Jays miss the playoffs again in 2025, it's going to be hard to pin the failure on him if the organization is unable to add impact pieces to the lineup. Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have repeatedly said that Schneider is their guy, and he has returned the favor by towing the company line, for better or worse.

The front office has had extension talks with Schneider, according to the Blue Jays skipper. “Things are normal,” Schneider told Sportsnet's Shi Davidi at the end of the 2024. “This time of year those conversations happen and those conversations have started to happen. I’ll keep them private. But we are looking forward to next year, and I think that we’ve got a good head start on it. I am under contract and I'm thrilled to continue to lead this team. Those conversations, I'll keep private for now.”

Even if the Blue Jays offer John Schneider a short-term deal, it doesn't amount to much

Even if Atkins extends the manager before the season, Schneider might still be a lame duck. We all know that a contract doesn't guarantee job security in professional sports. Schneider's predecessor learned that the hard way. Toronto canned Montoyo in July 2022, just three and a half months after extending him through the 2023 campaign, a deal that also included two option years.

With the very real possibility of the Blue Jays fielding a team that won't feature either Guerrero or Bichette in 2026, Schneider's time in the Toronto dugout might also be running out. He feels intrinsically tied to the two core star players, after managing them coming up through the system.

If the front office parts ways with both players, this era of Blue Jays baseball is over, and with it, likely Schneider as well — if he's not gone beforehand with another in-season last-ditch attempt for the front office to save face.

Considering the contract situations of some of the biggest names in the Blue Jays organization, including Schneider, it feels like things will be coming to a head in Toronto sooner rather than later.

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