AL Wild Card standings check after Blue Jays' push to crash playoff picture vs. Mariners

Michael Corleone said it best in The Godfather Part III: “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”

The Toronto Blue Jays looked dead in the water after an embarrassing series loss to the Kansas City Royals, which ended with them being booed off the field. That loss seemed like the final nail in the coffin—until they recovered by sweeping the Seattle Mariners over the weekend. 

Next up, after an off-day to recover, is a pivotal three-game series in Cleveland against the Guardians. They currently occupy the third and final American League Wild Card spot, setting the stage for a playoff-like atmosphere between two hopefuls. 

Can the Blue Jays afford to lose this Cleveland series? 

The Blue Jays will head to Cleveland 1.5 games back of the Guardians. Working in their favour, however, is that they currently hold a 2-1 advantage in the season series. Taking two of the three games would cut that deficit to a half game while also securing the head-to-head tiebreaker. 

They’ll need to keep playing at the level they did against the Mariners to make that happen. That series was one of the rare times everything—hitting, pitching, defence—has come together for the Blue Jays in 2026. They’ve seemingly been out of sync for the entire season. 

Toronto won’t be calling upon a suddenly rejuvenated Max Scherzer for another dominant performance, but they will have Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano taking the mound on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Spencer Arrighetti will take on Guardians ace Gavin Williams in what appears to be an extreme starting pitching mismatch on Tuesday night. 

The key to the Blue Jays’ success will be the performance of their lineup, as it has been for much of the season. They did a little bit of everything offensively against the Mariners, and, low and behold, they won all three games. A few hits with runners in scoring position can make all the difference. 

Cleveland, like Toronto, is built on pitching but has been trending in the right direction offensively. Trade deadline acquisition Jo Adell has been a run-producing machine behind José Ramírez and rookie Chase DeLauter. Their lineup has significantly more upside than it has in recent years. 

The Blue Jays will need to score early because the Guardians feature one of MLB’s best bullpens. Canadian closer Cade Smith ranks second in baseball with 35 saves, with the likes of Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski bridging the gap to him. They tend to win games whenever they have a late lead. 

Ultimately, Toronto just needs to keep playing its new and improved brand of baseball to put itself in a strong position. If they can play to the level they did against Seattle or the Tampa Bay Rays a few weeks ago, they should take care of business in Cleveland. Their fate is in their hands.

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