A Spring Training stat the Blue Jays do not want to carry over in the regular season

Pitching has been a major focus for the Toronto Blue Jays since the end of the 2025 season. It dominated their offseason moves, with the Blue Jays bringing in Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, and Tyler Rogers, while also bringing back Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer. However, despite all that work, the Blue Jays rank last in average fastball velocity so far in Spring Training.

The Blue Jays' average fastball velocity in Spring Training is 92.7, which is 0.4 mph slower than the next slowest team, the Atlanta Braves (93.1) and 2.2 mph slower than the league-leading Miami Marlins (94.9). The Blue Jays average velocity is also down from the 2025 regular season, when the team averaged 93.6 mph.

The Blue Jays need to bring the heat when the season opens

While this stat may seem concerning heading into the regular season, there are many caveats to keep in mind. Firstly, it's Spring Training. It's normal for teams' average velocity to fluctuate before the start of the regular season. In 2025, the San Francisco Giants and the Colorado Rockies had the highest average fastball velocity in Spring Training at 94.7 mph.

The Rockies maintained that during the regular season, but only ranked seventh in average fastball velocity. The Giants, on the other hand, dropped to an average of 94 mph, which ranked 19th in MLB. Further, despite the success the Blue Jays had in 2025, they ranked 27th in average fastball velocity (93.6).

It's also important to remember that many Blue Jays pitchers have had an irregular spring. Trey Yesavage is on a slower ramp-up, as the Blue Jays try not to overload him in his first full season in the majors. Bieber has been MIA while recovering from forearm fatigue, and Scherzer had a late start due to signing with the Blue Jays after Spring Training had started.

Yariel Rodriguez and Adam Macko also left the Blue Jays to play in the World Baseball Classic, representing Cuba and Canada, respectively. Both pitchers' average fastball velocity is above the team average (94.7 mph for Macko and 93.5 mph for Rodriguez).

Another reason for the Blue Jays' low ranking is Rogers. The submarine pitcher, while very effective at what he does, does not throw fast. His average fastball velocity in Spring Training is 82.8 mph, which is 4.9 mph slower than the next slowest pitcher, Mason Fluharty (87.9 mph). He also has the lowest average velocity among all pitchers in Spring Training, 2.4 mph slower than Jackson Kelley (85.2). Without Rogers, the Blue Jays' average velocity increases to 93.1 mph, which is still slow, but much more in line with other teams.

It's normal for pitchers to have a lower average velocity in Spring Training than during the regular season. Louis Varland had the highest velocity among Blue Jays pitchers during the 2025 regular and postseason, averaging 98.4 mph. During the 2025 Spring Training, his average fastball velocity was 96.9 mph. In 2026, his average velocity is 97.3 mph.

Cease has already improved his average velocity from 2025 to 2026 (97 mph vs. 97.4 mph). Ponce's average fastball velocity is up 2.8 mph from when he last played in the majors (96 mph in 2026 vs. 93.2 mph in 2021). Brendon Little has also improved his average velocity from 93.4 mph during the 2025 regular season to 95.5 mph during Spring Training. While the Blue Jays may have the slowest average velocity in Spring Training, there's plenty to be optimistic about the Blue Jays' pitching.