3 Blue Jays prospects whose stock could dramatically rise this fall

With the start of the Arizona Fall League (AFL), Blue Jays fans can get back involved in October baseball and cheer on some top prospects in their farm system. Toronto sent eight players to suit up for the Scottsdale Scorpions this fall, including five pitchers and three position players.

The 2024 AFL Opening Day was this past Monday, with a 30-game “regular season” concluding with the AFL Championship Game on November 16. Scottsdale won their opener 9-7 over the Salt River Rafters, with 25-year-old Blue Jays prospect Ryan Jennings (1.93 ERA in 60.2 innings at two stops this year in the Blue Jays system at High-A Vancouver and Double-A New Hampshire) tossing a scoreless inning in relief, with 2 strikeouts to earn a hold.

Given the raft of injured pitchers in the Jays system this year, with top prospects Ricky Tiedemann, Brandon Barriera, Landen Maroudis, Chad Dallas, Nolan Perry and Carson Pierce all undergoing Tommy John surgeries, there is a clear opportunity for pitching prospects to take advantage of the fall league exposure and potentially pitch their way onto Toronto’s 40-man roster.

As Jays Journal contributor Joe Olenick wrote recently, “A few of the expected Blue Jays prospects are on the Jays Journal Top 30 Prospects list, including [T.J.] Brock (ranked number 22), [Lazaro] Estrada (17), and [Kendry] Rojas (8).” They all have an opportunity to move higher in that ranking.

Given the wide open opportunity for these pitchers to make a name for themselves this fall with so many prospects above them rehabbing through next year from Tommy John, that gives us a perfect jumping off point to dig into three Blue Jays prospects whose stock could rise dramatically this fall.

3 Blue Jays prospects to watch in the Arizona Fall League

Kendry Rojas

21-year-old Cuban southpaw Kendry Rojas was signed as an international free agent for $215,000 by the Blue Jays as a 17-year-old in October 2020. He’s already spent 4 seasons in Toronto’s system, compiling a 3.28 ERA over 54 appearances, including 42 starts, and 211 innings with 236 strikeouts. But after missing nearly three months due to a shoulder issue earlier this year, Rojas dominated at High-A Vancouver with a 2.16 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 50 innings following his July 9 return.

Standing 6-foot-2, the 190-pound left-hander features a 94 mph riding fastball that can be a plus pitch. As per Jays Journal’s Matthew Rowell, “He can cut it to keep it off barrels and it's already getting above average swing and miss with less than ideal command. His [low-80s] slider is his main put-a-way pitch. It features tough two-plane break and he can use it all over the zone.”

While durability remains a question mark, Rojas projects as a mid-rotation starter; the AFL is a perfect opportunity for him to add to his 2024 workload and audition for a promotion to the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats in 2025. He won’t have to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft until after next season.

The only Blue Jays pitchers above him on MLB’s updated mid season top 30 prospect ranking were 2024 1st-round pick Trey Yesavage, Jake Bloss — who was acquired in the Yusei Kikuchi trade, the rehabbing Tiedemann, 2024 second-round pick Khal Stephen, fellow lefty Adam Macko — who’s already on the 40-man roster but was dealing with left forearm tightness as the season wound down, and 20-year-old Nicaraguan Fernando Perez.

As Keegan Matheson of MLB.com recently noted, “This is why a prospect like Rojas is so important to the organization. There’s a level of scarcity at play here. The Blue Jays have struggled to develop starting pitching, and while that’s been covered up well by some excellent trades and free-agent signings to bring in José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt, that won’t last forever.”

Lazaro Estrada

Fellow Cuban Estrada will also feature for Scottsdale in the AFL this fall after the Blue Jays extended him for another two years. Given the lack of starting pitching depth in the organisation, it’s not out of the question that he’d could merit a promotion to the 40-man roster if he pitches well in Arizona.

Signed as a 17-year-old, international free agent in January 2018, the now 25-year-old pitched at three levels this year and posted a combined 3.29 ERA in 22 appearances (all starts) over 98.1 innings, with 113 strikeouts against only 33 walks. He allowed a solo home run with two strikeouts over 3 innings in his AFL debut on Wednesday.

While his ERA jumped after a July 9 promotion to New Hampshire, he still featured swing-and-miss stuff, with 55 strikeouts over 52.1 innings at the higher level. Over six minor league seasons with the Blue Jays organisation, he has a 3.28 ERA over 331.2 innings.

As per Jays Journal contributor Matthew Rowell, Estrada features a low-to-mid-90s fastball, “but its combination of extreme ride and his uphill attack angle make it a tricky pitch for hitters to pick up. He has also been known for his strong curveball that tunnels well off his fastball. Estrada has above average control and at least average command.” His advanced age for the level “is more a product of lost development years and a visa issue than lack of production.”