Blue Jays: Strikeout type free agent relievers to pursue this offseason

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen’s collective 3.77 ERA was ranked 13th across the league by the season’s end, sitting in the middle of the pack. Only two other teams who made the postseason had a worse bullpen ERA, the Padres at 14th (3.83 ERA) and the World Series bound Philadelphia Phillies at 23rd (4.27 ERA).

While the Jays’ bullpen had a strong finish to the year, they struggled in the second game of the Wild Card, blowing an 8-1 lead against the Seattle Mariners that saw the Jays head home early.

Looking ahead to 2023, a lot of the relief corps is scheduled to come back as only David Phelps and Anthony Bass (club option at $3 million) are the only relievers with the potential to reach free agency. The remaining group of Jordan Romano, Tim Mayza, Zach Pop, Trevor Richards, Adam Cimber, and Yimi García are all under contract control and I would bet a lot of money the Jays will bring back Bass, meaning there really is only one or two spots potentially open if the Blue Jays are looking to add at the free agent deadline. Pop is the only one with Minor League options available as well.

This free agent class boasts some strong strikeout-type relievers the Blue Jays will be looking for this offseason.

Overall, the one thing Ross Atkins and co. needs to do is add a swing-and-miss type reliever at the deadline, one that preferably has the ability to light up the radar gun, as Romano is really the only blow-away type bullpen arm the club has. Pop can hit the upper 90s with his sinker but it doesn’t really generate strikeouts (a 15.9% strikeout rate and a 56.1% groundball rate). The Jays also have Julian Merryweather but at this point, he is not considered the most reliable arm.

Internally, Yosver Zulueta could be an option and might be called upon midway through the year should injuries arise, generating a 13.6 K/9 on the year split between four different levels. Hayden Juenger is also another bullpen option next year, hitting the mid-90s with his fastball and generating a 10.2 K/9 through 88.2 innings pitched between New Hampshire and Buffalo this season.

Factor in that Ross Stripling is heading to free agency and the Blue Jays will be under some payroll constraints should they have to stay under the luxury tax, there will be some interesting decisions needing to be made by the Blue Jays’ front office.

If management is keen on adding a reliever or two, here are some names that can throw hard but also generate strikeouts when needed.

Taylor Rogers – LHP

Traded at the deadline this past season, the 2022 campaign was not kind to left-hander Taylor Rogers.

The University of Kentucky product is no stranger to being traded, as the 31-year-old has seen his fair share over the years, but last season saw the reliever post a career-high 4.76 ERA and blow ten saves on the year, leading the league in that category. While these are not the stats one would be looking to amass during a free-agent year, there are some strong takeaways from the season for teams looking into Rogers this winter.

For starters, he posted a strong FIP at 3.32, which was elevated after he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers at the deadline (5.07 with the Brew Crew). He was also healthy and made 66 appearances and pitched 64.1 innings but most importantly, Rogers was still striking players out at a high clip, setting down 84 opposing batters and finishing the year with an 11.8 K/9.

He did give up seven home runs and 34 earned runs on the season but was still striking batters out when he was on, sitting in the 84th percentile in whiff% and in the 90th percentile in K%. His slider features 14.1 inches of horizontal break and he can touch the mid-90s with his sinker but Rogers did get hit around last year, authoring a 7.5% of solid contact and 40.6% hard hit percentage, which is a couple of points higher than the league average.

Overall, even though he had a down year, Rogers will be one of the top southpaws available in a free-agent class that does not boast a lot of quality arms from the left side. The Blue Jays are currently rolling into next season with Tim Mayza throwing from the left side while Matt Gage, Anthony Kay, Foster Griffin, Tayler Saucedo, and Yusei Kikuchi (if he goes back there again) are the only other internal southpaw options.

Spotrac currently has a $13.1 million market value on the veteran reliever and it will be interesting to see if any team (Jays included) will go that high given the rough season. He could be a potential one-year “prove-it” type contract, something the Blue Jays are very familiar with from previous signings, and if he can find his 2019/2021 form, he would really add a spark to the Jays’ bullpen this year.

Miguel Castro – RHP

A former Blue Jays prospect roughly ten years ago, right-hander Miguel Castro is heading to free agency this offseason after spending the past seven seasons with the Colorado Rockies, Baltimore Orioles, and New York Yankees.

Fans might remember Castro from back in 2015 when the relief pitcher cracked the Opening Day roster and racked up four saves before being sent down to AAA in early May. He would later be traded alongside a package of other prospects for Troy Tulowitzki at the deadline later that year and has earned a career 4.12 ERA through 333 appearances and 382.1 innings of work since then.

Castro isn’t the flashiest arm available on the open market but sits in the upper 90s with his sinker and earned a 9.6 K/9 last year, although he did deal with injuries that limited him to only 29.0 innings with the Yankees. He did sit in the 97th percentile for fastball velocity and that type of power could bode well amongst the other relief options the Jays currently employ, using his slider primarily at a 44.5% clip compared to the sinker (36.5%) and changeup (19.0%).

Ultimately, signing Castro is a low-risk middle relief option that could pay dividends should he stay healthy and if he can reel in the walks (4.7 BB/9 last year). I would think signing Castro wouldn’t be the only move the Blue Jays make in the bullpen market but having him in Spring Training as some extra competition couldn’t hurt as well.

Michael Fulmer – RHP

You might remember Michael Fulmer from the 2022 trade deadline, as the right-hander was one option that was circled on the wish list of quite a few Blue Jays fans earlier this year. Ultimately, the Detroit Tigers traded him to the Minnesota Twins and he finished the year by throwing to a 3.70 ERA through 24.1 innings of work with his new club.

While Fulmer’s fastball doesn’t blow you away like Díaz or Castro, the Oklahoma product uses a slider to generate weak contact and strikeouts, earning an 8.6 K/9 on the year. He sat in the 91st percentile of barrel % and generated a 113 ERA+ split between the Tigers and the Twins, although he did take a step back after the trade.

Adding Fulmer into the Blue Jays bullpen wouldn’t necessarily provide the velocity fans might be looking for. Still, he is experienced and is coming off two solid seasons as a relief option since converting from the rotation that also has some closing experience dating back to 2021.

Fulmer would be considered a middle reliever and similar to Castro, the addition would hopefully be just another piece to the puzzle that is the free agent offseason (with more moves likely to follow) but he could slot into the relief corps if the Jays don’t bring back David Phelps.

Robert Suarez – RHP

An intriguing arm to watch this offseason is right-hander Robert Suarez, as the San Diego Padres relief pitcher had an incredible season, authoring a 2.27 ERA through 47.2 innings of work with a 166 ERA+ and an 11.5 K/9 on the year.

What makes Suarez so interesting is that he kind of came out of nowhere, spending the previous five seasons overseas with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and the Hanshin Tigers in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league in Japan. While playing in the NPB, Suarez earned a collective 2.81 ERA through 205.0 innings while also amassing 68 saves to the tune of a 1.161 WHIP and a 9.2 K/9.

The Venezuelan product signed a deal with the Padres last offseason that includes a $5 million player option for the 2023 campaign, which we don’t know whether he will accept or decline at this time. Should he decline the option, he will likely have a long list of suitors and Spotrac currently has him at a $6.5 million market value heading into this offseason.

Considered by some to be an unsung hero for the Padres this year, Suarez did miss some time due to knee issues but still made 45 appearances this year. With a fastball and sinker sitting in the high 90s with a changeup, cutter, and curveball to boot, signing Suarez does check quite a few boxes for the Blue Jays should he become available this winter.

Andrew Chafin – LHP

After signing a one-year deal with a player option for 2023 with the Detroit Tigers last offseason, southpaw Andrew Chafin is going to head to free agency after a solid year in the bullpen. The left-hander amassed a 2.83 ERA and a 1.169 WHIP through 57.1 innings with the Tigers last year while striking out 67 batters and walking 19.

Commanding a three-pitch arsenal that includes a low 90’s sinker and fastball with a slider that 40.7 inches of drop, Chafin produced an 89th percentile chase rate as well as an 87 percentile whiff%, limiting opposing batters to a .222 batting average and a .619 OPS.

Considering Chafin has already announced that he will be declining his player option, he will likely become one of the top left-handers available for the bullpen this offseason, joining the likes of Taylor Rogers, Will Smith (club option), Matt Strahm, and Brad Hand.

The left-hander could be a valuable asset for the Blue Jays considering the club only has Tim Mayza heading into 2023 but there could be a bidding war for his services given the lack of LHP options this offseason.

Considering it appears Chafin is likely looking for more than the $6.5 million he declined with the Tigers with his player option, it will be interesting to see where his value ends up being and whether the Blue Jays will be willing to go that high for his services.