Blue Jays: The AL East is in for a shift in the landscape

The AL East power structure started to shift in 2022, but depending on how this offseason goes we could be in for a lot of change in MLB’s toughest division.

First and foremost, I’m very interested to see how much a more balanced schedule will benefit teams in the AL East, which has long been a deep and competitive division. In the past they’ve had to play inter-division teams for a total of 76 games (19 each), and that number will drop to 52 in 2023. In theory, it should have a positive effect on the Blue Jays and their division rivals.

Speaking of division rivals, it could be a very active offseason for the Blue Jays, and the same could be said for the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Orioles. Each team is in a different position, and I thought it would be worth a look at each scenario to try and get an early gauge on what could happen, and where the division chips could fall by next spring. My guess is that every team will be looking to add to their rosters to varying degrees, but at least a few GM’s will have some tough decisions to make, including Ross Atkins of the Blue Jays.

It will be an important offseason for Atkins and the Jays as they look to take another step toward being true World Series contenders. They’ve moved into the tier of teams we can expect to play postseason baseball, but the same could arguably be said about each of the five teams in the AL East.

Let’s have a look at what the offseason could bring for each of them.

Will 2022 turn out to be an off year in Boston?

As much as I’m tempted to write off the Red Sox, I’ve been watching baseball far too long to expect them to roll over and go into a deep rebuild. That basically never happens with one of baseball’s most valuable franchises, and I don’t expect that will be the case this time around either.

Still, the reality of the situation is that the Red Sox finished last in the AL East in 2022, and they’re looking at four talented teams ahead of them in the standings. They could lose some key players in free agency like J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, and even Xander Bogaerts if he opts out of his contract. There are some talented players coming in the pipeline that have started to arrive, but it would be surprising to see Chaim Bloom and company just stand pat and let some of their best players leave, at least without making an effort to retain them, which I expect they will with Bogaerts at least.

I’m not sure how much of an appetite for patience there is in Boston, but it might be wise if they looked at next year as a bit of a transition season. It’s going to take a fair bit to leapfrog their competition, and while I don’t think they’re going to throw in the towel, I also don’t expect Bloom to try and fix things overnight either.

My expectation is they’ll address Bogaerts’ contract situation, and likely try to do the same for Rafael Devers as well, who is arguably just starting his prime and could be the club’s highest priority as far as extensions go. It makes sense to me that they would try to retain that duo as the leading faces of the core of their next contending effort.

Beyond that, if the Red Sox are going to compete for a playoff spot in 2023, they’re going to need a lot of in-house improvement, and likely some luck on short-term contracts with veterans again. Since it’s the Red Sox, don’t rule it out.

Arriving before they were expected

One of the biggest surprises in baseball last year was the emergence of the Baltimore Orioles as a playoff contender. They ultimately fell short of the postseason, but they showed that they’re going to be a major problem for a long time, and they’re only going to get better as their young stars like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson gain more MLB experience.

One could argue that the smart thing for the Orioles to do would be to sit back and let their young core develop, knowing that they’re probably a couple more years away from being true contenders. However, after what they showed in 2022 I’m not so sure that they won’t look to add another piece to the puzzle at this stage. They should have plenty of money to spend in free agency, and with a more balanced MLB schedule it might not be as hard to convince pitchers to come to the AL East as it once was.

If the Orioles decide to spend this winter then I expect that they’ll mostly look to add to their pitching staff. It wouldn’t shock me if they took a run at someone like Carlos Rodon, for example, but I wouldn’t rule them out from pursuing an elite bat to add to the mix either. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but imagine if they managed to steal Aaron Judge away from the Yankees and added his power bat to the fold. That would be downright scary, and again, they should have the funds to make that kind of splash.

If I had to make a prediction for next season’s AL East standings right now, I don’t think I see the Orioles finishing higher than third even with an aggressive add in free agency. That said, they definitely proved me wrong in 2022, and I’ll be keeping a close eye on them over the winter and throughout the 2023 campaign. I expect that they’ll be in the mix for a Wild Card spot again in 2023, but I’m far more concerned about them in 2024 and beyond, which is when I expect they’ll really start to push their chips in to contend.

Has the window closed in New York?

Other than the Blue Jays, the team I will likely be following the most this offseason will be the Yankees. I could be wrong, but I feel like this might be the most important offseason we’ve seen from the Bronx Bombers in many years.

After absolutely dominating baseball in the first half of the 2022 campaign, the Yankees really came back to earth after the All-Star break. Had they not built such a big lead in the division early in the season then they may not have been able to hold off the Rays and Blue Jays down the stretch, and it seemed like more of their roster flaws were exposed as the season went on.

The obvious elephant in the room for Brian Cashman and the Yankees will be whether they are able to re-sign Aaron Judge after his AL record breaking 62 home run season in 2022. On one hand it would be understandable if they were concerned about locking up the 30 year old to a massive contract for the back half of his career, but I think it’s also fair to point out that Judge basically carried them to the playoffs this year. Without his contribution I don’t think there’s any way the Yankees win the division, and they could have been hard-pressed to even make the playoffs without their best player. Can they really afford to let him walk?

There were several reports that Judge turned down a seven-year contract in the neighbourhood of 213 million last winter, and obviously betting on himself should improve his leverage even if he’s another year older. While I’d be shocked if the Yankees didn’t try to keep him in pinstripes, I’m willing to bet that there will be a limit to how far they’ll go to retain him.

As for the rest of the roster, Judge isn’t the only decision they’ll have to make. Anthony Rizzo has the option to opt out of the 16 million and one year left on his current deal, and he might do just that in order to secure a few more seasons at a solid rate. They also have a club option for Luis Severino for 15 million that they’ll likely exercise, but they could also be working around the edges when it comes to payroll. Unlike back in the glory days of the Steinbrenner era in New York, the Yankees do show some restraint these days.

With some talented youngsters ready to take on big league roles like Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza, the Yankees could look a bit different when next season rolls around. We already know that they won’t be satisfied with losing in the ALCS and will look to come back strong next year, but that could be very difficult without their best player and an aging roster otherwise.

It remains to be seen what happens with Judge, but other than the Red Sox I’m not sure there’s a more vulnerable team in the division at the moment. In fact, unless things go well for Cashman and company this offseason, the Yankees may not only lose their hold on the division, but they could easily fall closer to the bottom of the standings if they’re not careful. In a division this good, things can change quickly, and that could very well happen to the mighty Yankees as soon as next year. Wouldn’t that be nice?

A big winter ahead for the Blue Jays

Last but not least is our beloved Toronto Blue Jays, who have a very important offseason of their own to worry about in the coming months. They’ll need to improve the depth in their starting rotation behind Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, and Jose Berrios, especially if they aren’t able to re-sign Ross Stripling. They’ll also need to move the needle with an addition or two for the bullpen, who even though they were a strong unit in the second half, still showed some flaws when the pressure was at its highest. Lastly, the talk around needing a better left-handed bat isn’t going to go away any time soon either.

On top of looking to add to their roster, the Blue Jays will have some significant decisions to make when it comes to the trade market. They have arguably the strongest catching depth in baseball between Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno, and they could easily find interested trade partners if they want to swap that depth out to improve another area of the roster. There’s also the impending free agency of several of their position players after next season, such as Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Whit Merrifield, and others. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if the Blue Jays traded one of their outfielders this offseason either, especially if they’re looking to make room for the aforementioned left-handed bat.

The Blue Jays definitely have some work to do to go from their 92-win season in 2022 to being able to lead baseball’s toughest division, but in my bias opinion, I like how they’re set up at the moment better than any of their rivals. That doesn’t mean that I think they’re a shoe-in at all, and it’s going to take some strong moves this winter to bring them the finishing touches they need for the roster, but Atkins should have the resources to do what they need to between payroll and the trade chips at his disposal.

As far as the potential shifting landscape of the AL East, the moves made this winter will go a long way to determining the future of the competition. Still, my early (and admittedly bias) rankings would see the Blue Jays at the top, followed by the Rays, Yankees, Orioles, and the Red Sox.

We’ll see if that’s how things go over the winter, but with a lot of balls in the air for most of the league, the landscape could look a lot different by the time teams start reporting next spring.