Toronto Blue Jays: An offseason checklist for Ross Atkins

Shake up for the short and long-term health of the team

While I’m confident that the Blue Jays will be players in this year’s free agent market, I actually expect them to do most of their work through trades.

It’s something that’s been talked about a lot throughout Blue Jays circles, and in some cases the conversation has been going on for a few years now, but this winter really feels like a make or break it time for the front office. That’s especially the case as they try to balance the short and long-term health of the roster.

First and foremost, I expect that the Blue Jays will finally trade a catcher in order to address another roster deficiency, I just don’t know which one it will be. Both Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk had the best seasons of their young pro careers in 2022, and Gabriel Moreno became a consensus top five prospect in all of baseball, also more than proving that he’s MLB-ready in the process. It’s not that the Blue Jays absolutely have to trade a backstop, but with the embarrassment of riches they’ve got behind the plate in Toronto these days, plenty of teams should be interested in what they’re selling. The trick will be to find the right match, and I’m guessing that could be with a team like the Marlins who may have a starting pitcher or two that they could make available.

Second up on the trade block is the common expectation that the Blue Jays will trade an outfielder at some point as well. Entering next season they’ll still have four years left on George Springer’s contract, but all four of Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Whit Merrifield, and Raimel Tapia are scheduled to be free agents once the 2023 season ends. I’m not so sure they’ll sweat Tapia’s impending free agency, and Merrifield could spend more time in the infield anyway, but it feels like a decision has to be made about the other two.

Like many Blue Jays fans, my prediction is that Teoscar Hernandez will be the one that’s most heavily shopped. It’s not that the Jays wouldn’t want to keep him around, but the two-time Silver Slugger award isn’t going to come cheap when he signs his next contract, and it’s hard to say if the Blue Jays will have the payroll space to retain him, especially if they have other long-term contract goals on the 40-man roster. Hernandez’s potent bat might be a piece that helps bring back an important part of the present and/or future of this team, and opening up a spot in the outfield might help the Jays find room for a long needed left-handed bat to help balance things out.

The Blue Jays could trade from other areas of the roster as well, but between the catching depth and the future of their outfield picture, I suspect those will be the two places they look to at least start with.