Toronto Blue Jays: An offseason checklist for Ross Atkins

The Blue Jays have a lot be excited about from their 2022 season, but there’s plenty of work for Ross Atkins and the front office to do in order to take the next step.

Even though the playoffs are still ongoing, that doesn’t mean that the front office should be taking a break right now, and it doesn’t look like they are. When I originally started drafting this article, step one of my offseason checklist for Atkins included re-signing John Schneider and retaining his services as the big league skipper. On Friday it was announced that Schneider has signed a three-year deal, meaning the first order of business is already taken care of. Whether that means the entire coaching staff will remain the same is a question that has yet to be answered, but we know Schneider will be at the helm next spring.

Unfortunately that’s not the only bit of work that Atkins and co. have to do over the winter, but at least they got it out of the way nice and early. Now comes the fun, and the far more difficult part of trying to make the necessary roster tweaks to take this talented Blue Jays team from 92 wins and a first round exit, into a legitimate World Series contender. They showed progress and earned their way to the postseason with the top Wild Card spot, but I think it’s safe to say that the team and the fan base are left wanting more.

So what does Ross Atkins’ offseason checklist look like? It’s not all that different from what’s been on it for the last few years, but let’s take an updated look at the situation and get an idea of what they might be trying to accomplish with the roster this offseason.

Investing doesn’t always solve the problem

If we take a look at the Blue Jays’ payroll, there’s no denying that this front office has been willing to invest in the starting rotation. Kevin Gausman inked a five-year, 110 million dollar contract last offseason, Yusei Kikuchi signed for three years and 36 million, and Jose Berrios agreed to a seven-year extension worth 131 million dollars. On top of that, they’re still paying Hyun Jin Ryu 20 million per season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, although his contract will run out at the end of the 2023 campaign and that money will be off the books.

Despite those investments, the Blue Jays find themselves in need of at least one starting pitcher this offseason, and probably two. As things stand, they expect Alek Manoah to join Gausman and Berrios as the rotation staples, and there are a lot of question marks after that. Ross Stripling is a free agent after a career-best season in 2022, and it’s hard to say whether the Blue Jays will look to re-sign him. He was a crucial part of their success this past season, so you have to think that if they don’t bring him back they’ll at least look to replace him with someone of similar value.

As for the fifth spot in the rotation, it was a disaster of a year from Kikuchi, and it’s possible that he could end up in the bullpen on a permanent basis. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Jays gave him another chance to start in spring training, but it’s hard to bank on anything from the hard-throwing southpaw. Otherwise, the rotation options include Mitch White, MAYBE Nate Pearson, or perhaps even a few names we didn’t see much of in 2022 like Anthony Kay or Thomas Hatch. As you can see, depth will be an important thing to address as well.

The good news is the Blue Jays have a very strong pair to lead their rotation in Manoah and Gausman, and there’s a strong chance that Berrios finds his form and pitches to at least the level of a #3 starter. The Jays would be wise to find a way to shore up the middle of the rotation one way or another, and I suspect it’ll be a top priority for the front office as they navigate the hot stove season.

Give the bullpen what it really needs

If you read about the Blue Jays bullpen on social media over the last few months, you’d think they were a dumpster fire for the entire season. In reality, they were only really bad for a stretch in the middle of the year, but overall the relief corps in Toronto wasn’t a major weakness overall, especially after they brought in Anthony Bass and Zach Pop to reinforce the group.

As the Jays look ahead to 2023, there’s a good chance that the bullpen mix looks pretty similar. For the sake of a visual, here’s what they have for returning arms at the moment.

1- Jordan Romano
2- Anthony Bass
3- Yimi Garcia
4- Tim Mayza
5- Adam Cimber
6- Trevor Richards
7- Zach Pop

Other possibilities:  Kikuchi, White, Pearson, Julian Merryweather, Matt Gage, etc

As you can see, there are probably enough in-house options to at least get the 2023 season started, especially if they look at re-signing their effective veteran in David Phelps, who might not be that expensive to retain. Regardless of whether they bring Phelps back or not, there’s a certain type of reliever they really need to add, and that’s one that can bring more “swing and miss”.

This might be something that the Blue Jays ultimately pursue a little closer to next summer’s trade deadline, especially with an area as volatile as the bullpen. Patience is often a virtue when it comes to bullpen value, and Atkins and his team have been good at finding effective arms for a relatively cheap coster. That said, after watching the Blue Jays in this year’s playoffs, it’s clear that the time for bargain shopping should be over.

In order to get over the hump and truly join the elite teams in Major League Baseball, they need a strong bullpen, and one that can shut down even the top lineups when the pressure is at its highest. Jordan Romano again proved that he can be that kind of closer/late-inning reliever this year, and others like Garcia and Bass are capable as well, but it’s just enough quite enough.

I’m not sure whether the Blue Jays will be patient when it comes to looking for a difference maker for the bullpen, or if it’ll be a priority right away, but I’d certainly vote for the latter, especially with the quality depth they already have in place. They’ve got the quantity, and now it’s time to find true quality and move to the next tier in baseball.

Last but not least

Once Atkins and the front office have made a few trades, and hopefully shored up the pitching staff in the process, there’s one last thing they should be serious about this winter, and that’s locking up some of their premium young talent for the long term. That list could include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, or even Alek Manoah.

After a second place finish in AL MVP voting in 2021, Guerrero Jr. looked like he might be heading for a record contract for a big league first baseman, but unfortunately he took a bit of a step back this year. It’s not as if he was bad by any means, earning another All-Star appearance for his resume while hitting 32 home runs, but he wasn’t the same dominant hitter we saw a year before. For that reason, I personally think it’ll be hard for the Blue Jays and Vlad Jr’s camp to figure out a contract that works for everyone, but it does sound like there’s an appetite to work out an extension.

As for Bichette, the 24 year old had a bit of an up and down 2022 campaign, but he finished the year absolutely on fire and reminded baseball that he’s one of the most talented hitters in the world while leading the AL in hits for the second straight season. The jury is still out on whether Bichette can be an above-average shortstop at some point in his career, but there’s no question about what he can bring to the table with a bat in his hands.

Lastly, I’m not sure that I expect the Blue Jays to engage with Manoah on a long-term deal this winter, as that’s a lot less frequent with young pitchers. That said, Manoah proved himself as one of the very best young starters in baseball this year, and he gives the pitching staff a legitimate ace both now and in the future. It might not be the decade-long contract that some of the other young stars in baseball have been signing, but this could be a scenario where the Blue Jays buy out a free agent year or two in exchange for locking Manoah up to a new contract. The Atlanta Braves recently made a move like this with their rookie sensation in Spencer Strider, and it might not be a bad idea for the Blue Jays to make a similar offer.

I don’t expect that the Blue Jays are going to sign all three players to extensions, as that might not be something their payroll ever allows them to do depending on what else they do over the winter. However, I would like to see the front office take a step toward giving this roster a long-term face, and that likely belongs to Guerrero Jr. at least to start with.

So to recap, the list of needs really hasn’t changed all that much from what we’ve been talking about for the last few years. Address the rotation by bringing in at least one starter, especially if they can’t keep Stripling around, find some more “swing and miss” for the bullpen, and hopefully add a high-end left-handed bat to bring some balance to the lineup, while likely trading some valuable players in the process. No pressure or anything.