Toronto Blue Jays: An offseason checklist for Ross Atkins

Investing doesn’t always solve the problem

If we take a look at the Blue Jays’ payroll, there’s no denying that this front office has been willing to invest in the starting rotation. Kevin Gausman inked a five-year, 110 million dollar contract last offseason, Yusei Kikuchi signed for three years and 36 million, and Jose Berrios agreed to a seven-year extension worth 131 million dollars. On top of that, they’re still paying Hyun Jin Ryu 20 million per season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, although his contract will run out at the end of the 2023 campaign and that money will be off the books.

Despite those investments, the Blue Jays find themselves in need of at least one starting pitcher this offseason, and probably two. As things stand, they expect Alek Manoah to join Gausman and Berrios as the rotation staples, and there are a lot of question marks after that. Ross Stripling is a free agent after a career-best season in 2022, and it’s hard to say whether the Blue Jays will look to re-sign him. He was a crucial part of their success this past season, so you have to think that if they don’t bring him back they’ll at least look to replace him with someone of similar value.

As for the fifth spot in the rotation, it was a disaster of a year from Kikuchi, and it’s possible that he could end up in the bullpen on a permanent basis. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Jays gave him another chance to start in spring training, but it’s hard to bank on anything from the hard-throwing southpaw. Otherwise, the rotation options include Mitch White, MAYBE Nate Pearson, or perhaps even a few names we didn’t see much of in 2022 like Anthony Kay or Thomas Hatch. As you can see, depth will be an important thing to address as well.

The good news is the Blue Jays have a very strong pair to lead their rotation in Manoah and Gausman, and there’s a strong chance that Berrios finds his form and pitches to at least the level of a #3 starter. The Jays would be wise to find a way to shore up the middle of the rotation one way or another, and I suspect it’ll be a top priority for the front office as they navigate the hot stove season.

Give the bullpen what it really needs

If you read about the Blue Jays bullpen on social media over the last few months, you’d think they were a dumpster fire for the entire season. In reality, they were only really bad for a stretch in the middle of the year, but overall the relief corps in Toronto wasn’t a major weakness overall, especially after they brought in Anthony Bass and Zach Pop to reinforce the group.

As the Jays look ahead to 2023, there’s a good chance that the bullpen mix looks pretty similar. For the sake of a visual, here’s what they have for returning arms at the moment.

1- Jordan Romano
2- Anthony Bass
3- Yimi Garcia
4- Tim Mayza
5- Adam Cimber
6- Trevor Richards
7- Zach Pop

Other possibilities:  Kikuchi, White, Pearson, Julian Merryweather, Matt Gage, etc

As you can see, there are probably enough in-house options to at least get the 2023 season started, especially if they look at re-signing their effective veteran in David Phelps, who might not be that expensive to retain. Regardless of whether they bring Phelps back or not, there’s a certain type of reliever they really need to add, and that’s one that can bring more “swing and miss”.

This might be something that the Blue Jays ultimately pursue a little closer to next summer’s trade deadline, especially with an area as volatile as the bullpen. Patience is often a virtue when it comes to bullpen value, and Atkins and his team have been good at finding effective arms for a relatively cheap coster. That said, after watching the Blue Jays in this year’s playoffs, it’s clear that the time for bargain shopping should be over.

In order to get over the hump and truly join the elite teams in Major League Baseball, they need a strong bullpen, and one that can shut down even the top lineups when the pressure is at its highest. Jordan Romano again proved that he can be that kind of closer/late-inning reliever this year, and others like Garcia and Bass are capable as well, but it’s just enough quite enough.

I’m not sure whether the Blue Jays will be patient when it comes to looking for a difference maker for the bullpen, or if it’ll be a priority right away, but I’d certainly vote for the latter, especially with the quality depth they already have in place. They’ve got the quantity, and now it’s time to find true quality and move to the next tier in baseball.

Shake up for the short and long-term health of the team

While I’m confident that the Blue Jays will be players in this year’s free agent market, I actually expect them to do most of their work through trades.

It’s something that’s been talked about a lot throughout Blue Jays circles, and in some cases the conversation has been going on for a few years now, but this winter really feels like a make or break it time for the front office. That’s especially the case as they try to balance the short and long-term health of the roster.

First and foremost, I expect that the Blue Jays will finally trade a catcher in order to address another roster deficiency, I just don’t know which one it will be. Both Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk had the best seasons of their young pro careers in 2022, and Gabriel Moreno became a consensus top five prospect in all of baseball, also more than proving that he’s MLB-ready in the process. It’s not that the Blue Jays absolutely have to trade a backstop, but with the embarrassment of riches they’ve got behind the plate in Toronto these days, plenty of teams should be interested in what they’re selling. The trick will be to find the right match, and I’m guessing that could be with a team like the Marlins who may have a starting pitcher or two that they could make available.

Second up on the trade block is the common expectation that the Blue Jays will trade an outfielder at some point as well. Entering next season they’ll still have four years left on George Springer’s contract, but all four of Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Whit Merrifield, and Raimel Tapia are scheduled to be free agents once the 2023 season ends. I’m not so sure they’ll sweat Tapia’s impending free agency, and Merrifield could spend more time in the infield anyway, but it feels like a decision has to be made about the other two.

Like many Blue Jays fans, my prediction is that Teoscar Hernandez will be the one that’s most heavily shopped. It’s not that the Jays wouldn’t want to keep him around, but the two-time Silver Slugger award isn’t going to come cheap when he signs his next contract, and it’s hard to say if the Blue Jays will have the payroll space to retain him, especially if they have other long-term contract goals on the 40-man roster. Hernandez’s potent bat might be a piece that helps bring back an important part of the present and/or future of this team, and opening up a spot in the outfield might help the Jays find room for a long needed left-handed bat to help balance things out.

The Blue Jays could trade from other areas of the roster as well, but between the catching depth and the future of their outfield picture, I suspect those will be the two places they look to at least start with.

Last but not least

Once Atkins and the front office have made a few trades, and hopefully shored up the pitching staff in the process, there’s one last thing they should be serious about this winter, and that’s locking up some of their premium young talent for the long term. That list could include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, or even Alek Manoah.

After a second place finish in AL MVP voting in 2021, Guerrero Jr. looked like he might be heading for a record contract for a big league first baseman, but unfortunately he took a bit of a step back this year. It’s not as if he was bad by any means, earning another All-Star appearance for his resume while hitting 32 home runs, but he wasn’t the same dominant hitter we saw a year before. For that reason, I personally think it’ll be hard for the Blue Jays and Vlad Jr’s camp to figure out a contract that works for everyone, but it does sound like there’s an appetite to work out an extension.

As for Bichette, the 24 year old had a bit of an up and down 2022 campaign, but he finished the year absolutely on fire and reminded baseball that he’s one of the most talented hitters in the world while leading the AL in hits for the second straight season. The jury is still out on whether Bichette can be an above-average shortstop at some point in his career, but there’s no question about what he can bring to the table with a bat in his hands.

Lastly, I’m not sure that I expect the Blue Jays to engage with Manoah on a long-term deal this winter, as that’s a lot less frequent with young pitchers. That said, Manoah proved himself as one of the very best young starters in baseball this year, and he gives the pitching staff a legitimate ace both now and in the future. It might not be the decade-long contract that some of the other young stars in baseball have been signing, but this could be a scenario where the Blue Jays buy out a free agent year or two in exchange for locking Manoah up to a new contract. The Atlanta Braves recently made a move like this with their rookie sensation in Spencer Strider, and it might not be a bad idea for the Blue Jays to make a similar offer.

I don’t expect that the Blue Jays are going to sign all three players to extensions, as that might not be something their payroll ever allows them to do depending on what else they do over the winter. However, I would like to see the front office take a step toward giving this roster a long-term face, and that likely belongs to Guerrero Jr. at least to start with.

So to recap, the list of needs really hasn’t changed all that much from what we’ve been talking about for the last few years. Address the rotation by bringing in at least one starter, especially if they can’t keep Stripling around, find some more “swing and miss” for the bullpen, and hopefully add a high-end left-handed bat to bring some balance to the lineup, while likely trading some valuable players in the process. No pressure or anything.