Blue Jays: Prospects that are at risk of being selected in the Rule 5 Draft

This past offseason, Major League Baseball and the players association spent a couple of months working towards a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, spanning from December 1st to early March with a lockout in place. Players and their respective teams like the Blue Jays went no contact, no trades or Major League signings were made, and players were unable to use team facilities.

One outcome of the lockout was that the MLB portion of the Rule 5 Draft was cancelled, as the draft usually takes place around the Winter Meetings in December. Teams will have an opportunity to protect any players via the 40-man roster before that time, but any eligible players left off the roster do have a chance of being selected by other clubs. Any selected player must remain on the team’s active roster for the entire calendar year or be offered back to the original club. Notable players selected by the Blue Jays in the Rule 5 Draft include Willie Upshaw, George Bell, Jim Acker, Kelly Gruber, Manuel Lee, Joe Biagini, and Elvis Luciano.

As of right now, with Ross Stripling, David Phelps, and Jackie Bradley Jr. heading to free agency, the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster stands at 40 players, which is including the three players (Hyun Jin Ryu, Tayler Saucedo, and Vinny Capra) on the 60-day IL who will need to be activated after the season is over and require a roster spot. That being said, Ryu will start next season on the 60-day IL while recovering from midseason Tommy John surgery while the Jays have a few players that could be removed to make room for adding eligible Rule 5 players as well as offseason acquisitions. Those decisions will come following the postseason.

The Blue Jays will have some tough roster decisions in regard to the 2022 Rule 5 Draft

Before the Rule 5 Draft was officially cancelled last year, the Blue Jays added four players to the 40-man roster: Zach Logue (later traded), Bowden Francis (optioned) Hagen Danner, and Leo Jimenez.

To be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, players signed at or under the age of 18 will need to be protected after five seasons, while players signed at 19 or over must be added after four seasons, or they are at risk for the draft. For this article, we will be using FanGraphs and their roster breakdown and Rule 5 eligibility status.

Here are five Blue Jays prospects that are at risk of being selected if they are not protected on the 40-man roster this offseason:

Spencer Horwitz – 1B/OF

Splitting time on the right side of the diamond and in the corner outfield positions, Maryland product Spencer Horwitz had a great 2022 season split between AA and AAA. On the year, he slashed .275/.391/.452 with 33 doubles and 12 home runs to the tune of 51 RBI, adding a .843 OPS to boot.

This success is no fluke either, as Horwitz also had an impressive 2021 campaign that included a stint in the Arizona Fall League where he posted a .375 batting average with 12 RBI.

Currently ranked as the Blue Jays’ #12 prospect, the 24-year-old is a lock to start next year at AAA and it wouldn’t be surprising if a team needing a bat at first base might give the Radford University product a look if left unprotected. He also added 73 walks compared to 95 strikeouts through a combined 403 at-bats and also added seven stolen bases. Defensively, Horwitz split his time between first base and left field, sporting .996 and .958 fielding percentages respectively.

Batting from the left side, Horwitz is one player to keep an eye on, as there are a few teams across the league who could use his bat and defensive ability in 2023.

Addison Barger – SS/3B

One prospect who finished the 2022 campaign strong is #13 ranked Blue Jays prospect Addison Barger.

Barger started the year in High-A but earned a promotion to AA on July 11th, spending just over two months with the Fisher Cats before joining the Buffalo Bisons to end the season.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Barger really tore up A+ and AA ball, sporting an OPS over .900 in both leagues while also adding 23 home runs combined. Although it was only eight games in AAA, the lefty-batter went 11-31 and earned a hit in each of the eight games he suited up in. Defensively, the Washington product split his time between shortstop and third base, committing 16 errors on the year while sporting .949 and .929 fielding percentages respectively.

The infielder is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League and currently owns a .679 OPS through 28 at-bats, but showcased his power early by adding two home runs on the October 5th game against the Mesa Solar Sox.

Blue Jays infielder Addison Barger continues to improve his prospect stock after a strong 2022 campaign

Barger might need a bit more polish before any team might select him in the Rule 5 Draft but his play this season is one that could persuade the Blue Jays to give him a roster spot, as the temptation of his power and ability to get on base might be too tempting for rival teams.

Chavez Young – OF

One prospect who had a strong Spring Training showing was Chavez Young, making some impressive defensive plays in the outfield. Young would start the year on the IL and wouldn’t see game action until May 14th, suiting in Single-A Dunedin before rejoining the Buffalo Bisons in AAA 10 days later.

With Buffalo, Young authored a .234/.331/.351 slash line with five home runs and 21 RBI, adding 20 stolen bases and a .681 OPS through 65 games. Young’s season would end with him back on the IL, suiting up in just 65 games with the Bisons and his year coming to an end on August 21st. He finished the season with an 86 wRC+.

Blue Jays prospect Chavez Young eligible for the 2022 Rule 5 Draft

One of the biggest caveats to his game was his swing and miss, as the Bahamian product was known to be a bit of a free swinger in years past. This improved this season, as he dropped his K% by 1.6 points but it still sits a bit high at 23.4%. His glove is his calling card, especially with his plus speed, as Young spends most of his time in centre field with some starts in right field mixed in as well. He finished the year with nine assists from all three outfield positions and a combined .989 fielding percentage in centre field.

Any team looking for a glove-first outfielder with some speed is going to have eyes on Chavez but might be hesitant after the limited game action due to injury. He likely gets bumped out of the Blue Jays picture because he fits the same mould as Bradley Zimmer (defense first type) but a rival team could take a flyer on the switch-hitting outfielder.

Adrian Hernandez – RHP

After a brief stint in AA to start the year, right-handed reliever Adrian Hernandez was promoted quickly to AAA Buffalo and was off to a fantastic start.

He was cruising in AAA and was one player that was at least on my radar as a potential call-up candidate later in the season before right shoulder soreness sent him to the IL in mid-June, keeping him out of game action until the start of August. After a quick rehab assignment in the lower levels of the Jays system, Hernandez returned to Buffalo on August 17th and finished the season with the Bisons.

Numerous Blue Jays top prospects eligible for the 2022 Rule 5 Draft

The return was not as strong as his start to the year, as the Mexican native had three outings where he allowed three or more earned runs and he eventually finished the season with a 4.96 ERA through 32.2 innings in Buffalo. He also authored a 12.1 K/9 while adding seven saves in AAA.

The injury obviously hurt his chances of making the MLB roster and after the Blue Jays added Mitch White, Zach Pop, and Anthony Bass at the deadline, Hernandez’s chances decreased only further. That being said, he might not make the team out of Spring Training but could be a callup option sometime in 2023 if he can find that early 2022 form unless another team takes a chance on him in the Rule 5 Draft.

Orelvis Martinez – SS/3B

As I mentioned earlier, there are only two players that I would consider locks to make the 40-man roster this offseason: RHP Yosver Zulueta and infielder Orelvis Martinez.

Martinez, the Blue Jays’ #2 overall prospect and the top-ranked position player, spent all season in AA and showcased his power, belting 30 home runs on the season with 76 RBI. He finished the season with a .203/.286/.446 slash line with a .732 OPS and a 28.5 K%, which is an element of his game that will need to be improved upon over the next season.

His 30 homers set a single-season record for the Fisher Cats as well, finishing second overall in the Eastern League and just one behind Quincy Nieporte on the Erie SeaWolves. On the diamond, Martinez started 60 games at shortstop and 43 games at third base, authoring .937 and .948 fielding percentages respectively with 18 combined errors on the year.

Martinez’s bat is his calling card and given his frame and athletic ability, he will likely end up at third base in the foreseeable future, which could bode well for both him and the Blue Jays with Matt Chapman eligible for free agency following next season.

I don’t suspect Martinez will be left off the 40-man roster, and if he is, there are certainly going to be a few different teams that will try and find a way to stash him on an active roster and use him as DH for the year.

Tanner Morris – INF

A product of the University of Virginia, infielder Tanner Morris split his time between AA and AAA this season and has definitely put himself on the radar of Blue Jays fans and rival executives this season.

On the year, Morris authored a .258/.399/.353 slash line with 13 extra-base hits (five home runs), 18 RBI and a .752 OPS through 252 at-bats. Injuries limited Morris to just 74 games on the year and he is now getting some reps down in the Arizona Fall League, where he currently owns a .610 OPS while going 4 for 17 with one double. One of his best attributes is his plate awareness, as the lefty-batter had the same number of walks to strikeouts on the year at 55 apiece.

The Blue Jays’ #18 ranked prospect, Morris spent most of the year at third base with some starts at second base sprinkled in, committing just three errors on the year through 536.2 innings. He did make some starts at shortstop in 2021 but did not do so this season.

Projected to be more of an infield utility player, Morris could be a sneaky pick for a rebuilding team looking for someone who can chalk up innings on the field with a bat that can play for contact over power.