Four internal questions the Blue Jays will need to answer this offseason

Considering this year was “the movie” for the Blue Jays and their fan base, it is safe to say losing in the AL Wild Card is not how this club expected the 2022 campaign to go.

The Jays faced a Seattle Mariners squad that finished two wins behind them at 90-72, bolstered with an excellent pitching corps that ultimately kept them in each of the Wild Card games. The first night saw an absolute gem from Luis Castillo, who outdueled Blue Jays ace Alek Manoah, followed by hard-throwing right-handed reliever Andrés Muñoz that kept the Jays out of the run column and limited them to just seven hits on the day.

Last night seemed more like a horror movie, as the Jays were up 8-1 heading into the sixth inning before the bullpen imploded, with Tim Mayza allowing a three-run shot to Carlos Santana before the likes of Anthony Bass and Jordan Romano surrendered five more runs combined to hand the Mariners the lead and ultimately the win. Teoscar Hernández stole the show for the Jays with his two home runs with Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen both also having multi-hit days.

The top of the eighth saw a scary collision between Bo Bichette and George Springer that saw the outfielder get carted off the field, and also took the wind out of the Rogers Centre sails as the Mariners tied the game. With the Mariners’ comeback win, the Jays enter the wrong side of the record books as it became the largest comeback by a road team in a playoff series and the largest comeback to clinch a postseason series.

With the season now over, it is time to start turning our attention to the impending offseason while the playoffs continue to sort themselves out. The Blue Jays have a few things they need to take care of this winter that could have some major impacts not only on next season but beyond.

Pending Free Agent Decisions

This offseason, the Blue Jays don’t have a ton of players heading to free agency, especially compared to last year. As per Spotrac, Ross Stripling, David Phelps, and Jackie Bradley Jr. are the only names heading to the market this offseason, with the club also needing to decide whether to pick up the option on reliever Anthony Bass (which at $3 million, seems like a no-brainer).

Stripling is the most intriguing name of the bunch, as the right-hander had probably one of the best campaigns he could have had in a walk year. Used in both the rotation and the bullpen for most of his career, the Blue Jays needed him to start games after Hyun Jin Ryu went on the IL and the Pennsylvania product delivered, posting a 3.1 fWAR with a 3.01 ERA through 32 appearances (24 starts). He appeared in a career-high 134.1 innings and posted a 7.4 K/9 with a career-best 1.3 BB/9, supplementing José Berríos on the depth charts if the Blue Jays forced a Game 3 in the Wild Card series.

The pending 33-year-old is eligible for the qualifying offer this winter, which is slated to come in at about $18-19 million. Part of me thinks Stripling signs this deal and will bet on himself again next year, especially since the Jays are without Hyun Jin Ryu for most of the season after he underwent Tommy John surgery and Stripling could slot back into the rotation.

It also wouldn’t be surprising if the Jays try and find an angle to sign him to a multi-year deal, potentially saving some money with the guarantee of more years. That might be hard to come by considering he will likely have some suitors if he hits the free agent market but he is open to returning, stating after the loss last night, “[The Jays] are exciting to be a part of and the future is obviously very bright. So I’d love to be a part of it, for sure.”

Phelps would also be a solid addition back to the Jays, as he posted a 2.83 ERA through 63.2 innings and likely won’t cost too much back on the free agent market (he signed a 1-year deal worth $2.75 million this past offseason). Bradley Jr. could be brought back as a bench outfield option but isn’t high on the priority list given the current outfield situation.

Extending the Young Core

While teams across the league are extending their young stars to long-term mega deals, the Toronto Blue Jays have yet to follow suit, which has been a bit frustrating for the Jays fan base. With the likes of Julio Rodríguez, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Wander Franco all sticking with their respective organizations for numerous years, it makes one wonder why Ross Atkins and co. haven’t followed suit, or, whether they have tried to and aren’t meeting expectations.

The Jays’ biggest pieces without extensions are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, with Alek Manoah starting to enter that conversation as well. It is unlikely the club will extend him before he hits arbitration, mostly because many teams across the league find it risky to extend pitchers so early in their career, but the fan favourite getting locked down will be something needing to be explored in the coming years as well. Bichette and Guerrero Jr. are both on the books for the next three years, heading to free agency following the 2025 campaign.

Blue Jays and the need to extend young stars

The Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr’s camp have talked shop before and it looks like things are heading in the right direction. The Montreal-born slugger is open to signing a long-term extension and the two sides are supposedly going to meet again now that the season is over, mostly because Guerrero didn’t talk contract during the year.  The years will obviously determine how big the salary number becomes but it will likely break the $300 million mark, especially with how he has become one of the league’s top hitters at just 23 years old.

Bichette on the other hand will also need a long-term extension shortly as well, as the shortstop is heading to arbitration for the first time in his career this offseason. The Jays shortstop made waves earlier this season when he did not agree to the Jays’ pre-arbitration raise, stating, “It’s pretty simple — I disagree with sticking to a formula to value us as players.”

The Blue Jays (and teams across the league) use various methods or formulas when calculating salaries for pre-arbitration players (which can be found here) and both he and Manoah did not accept their new numbers this year (with the right-hander stating other reasons for his decision).

The consensus is pretty much that the more the Jays wait to sign either player, the more expensive it is going to cost as they continue to develop and hopefully get better, as well as negatively impacting the relationship the more these two sides have to go to arbitration.

With teams across the league locking up young stars, it is time for the Blue Jays to jump on board and do the same.

Looking at Possible Trade Chips this Offseason

While this winter does not boast many names heading to the free agent market, the following offseason is a completely different story.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Matt Chapman, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernández, Adam Cimber, Raimel Tapia, and Anthony Bass will all become free agents that year, with the club also needing to decide whether to pick up options on Yimi Garcia (club option at $5 MM) and Whit Merrifield ($18 MM mutual option). Looking at the committed money heading into 2024, the Jays have almost $66 million in luxury tax salary tied up in Springer, Gausman, and Berrios, with another $12 owed to Kikuchi, who will be on the last year of his deal.

Assuming the club picks up Garcia and does not pick up Merrifield, the luxury tax salary will sit at around $80 million, which is a solid chunk of change to play with (not including arbitration). That being said, the Jays should be looking to extend some young stars (as I mentioned earlier) and that will cost a pretty penny.

Looking at the Blue Jays money ahead

Thinking on the high side, if the Jays have Bichette and Guerrero Jr. locked up for $55-$60 million combined, they are sitting at $140 million, but that’s not including other player arbitration values, which will include the likes of Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Danny Jansen, Jordan Romano, and Alejandro Kirk (again, assuming Bichette and Guerrero are already locked up).

That could push the value up another $30-$40 million to the $170-180 million area, which could tie the hands of the front office when considering extending pending free agents in Chapman, Gurriel Jr., and/or Hernández. All three players will be eligible for the qualifying offer as well, meaning if they leave and don’t come back, the Jays could gain draft pick compensation, but it might be tough to retain all three without having cash/salary space for other areas on the roster unless Rogers is willing to go past the luxury tax.

That being said, the Jays’ front office could move one of Gurriel Jr. or Hernández this offseason, although it would be a tough decision given how they played this past year and how they are revered by the fanbase, but if the money isn’t there to extend them, it might make future moves easier for the franchise. Again, the numbers I put forward are hypothetical (and also rely on the Jays extending two young stars) but even if they don’t sign extensions, they will still command a strong chunk of change in arbitration anyway which will still drive up payroll.

Factor in non-financial decisions like what the Jays will do with three MLB-ready catchers on their roster, and the club might be making some tough moves this offseason.