Blue Jays: An early prediction of the postseason roster

The Blue Jays have just six games left in the regular season, and soon they’ll have to make some tough decisions about their postseason roster.

Once the playoffs begin the rosters will drop back to their usual number of 26, which means they will be down two players from the group they’ve carried throughout September. The only problem with that is that they will have to leave a useful player or two off the postseason roster, and it’ll be a little more difficult than usual.

They’ll have a few variables that will factor into their decisions, especially when it comes to the health of some of their injured regulars. For example, Lourdes Gurrriel Jr. is doing what he can to  get healthy before the regular season ends, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to factor into the playoff run. The same goes for Santiago Espinal, who mlb.com’s Keegan Matheson reported on Wednesday was “a little behind” of the progress that they’ve seen from Gurriel Jr.

Thankfully the Jays have a fair bit of versatility on their active roster, which has helped to cover the absences of Gurriel Jr. and Espinal, and could be required to do the same early in the playoffs.

One of the other significant variables is the fact that the opening round is just a best of three series, which means the Jays could get creative with how they build things out. For example, that likely means they won’t need a fourth or fifth starter, at least not until the second round should they make it that far.

There’s still a chance a few things could change over the next week as well, but for now I thought I’d take an early stab at what the roster will look like in a little over a week.

The Lineup

I thought the easiest way to do this would be to break it up into three sections, so I’ll begin with the starting lineup and the bench. As I mentioned earlier, the absence or presence of Gurriel Jr. and Espinal will obviously impact the options at John Schneider’s disposal, and the playoff roster in general.

We’ll see how they progress over the next few days, but I’m going to predict that Gurriel Jr. will make it back in time, and Espinal might need until Round 2 before he can re-join the team. I could absolutely see a scenario where the former spends time as the DH rather than being in left field, but for now here’s how I see things:

1- George Springer (CF)
2- Bo Bichette (SS)
3- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)
4- Alejandro Kirk
5- Teoscar Hernandez (RF)
6- Matt Chapman (3B)
7- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF)
8- Danny Jansen (C)
9- Whit Merrifield (2B)

Bench:  Cavan Biggio, Raimel Tapia, Jackie Bradley Jr., Bradley Zimmer, Otto Lopez

Yeah, I realize it’s not ideal to have an all right-handed lineup, but it may not be that big of an issue. I mostly say that because as of right now it looks like the Blue Jays will play the Rays in the first round. That could change of course, but if that’s the case then it’s not a bad match-up for an all righty group of hitters.

The Rays are getting healthier as the regular season comes to an end, and that included the return of Tyler Glasnow on Wednesday night. That said, I’m not sure that I’d bank on Glasnow making that big of a start, even with his high-end potential. More likely, in a three-game series I think the Jays would see two southpaw starts in Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs, and likely a veteran righty in Corey Kluber. You could make the case for Kluber or Drew Rasmussen as well, as the Rays are deep in the rotation as usual, but that’s my guess who the Rays would start against the Jays, who don’t hit lefties that well despite all of the right-handed hitters on their roster.

You could see Schneider mixing in someone like Biggio or Tapia, especially against Kluber or one of the other right-handed starters, and they’ll still have the likes of Bradley Jr. and Zimmer as late-inning defensive replacements and/or pinch runners. Once Espinal is healthy I’m sure he’ll join the fun somewhere, and without the need for as much rotation depth, he can likely take up one of the pitching spots, especially in a short series. To that end, don’t be surprised if Otto Lopez sticks around as an emergency infielder, at least until Espinal can get back on the field.

The Rotation

A few weeks ago it seemed like Schneider and Pete Walker were going to have a tough decision about who to use in their playoff rotation. As we near the end of the regular season, I feel like this is one area of the team that has pretty much decided itself.

The only question I really have at this point is whether they prefer to start their youthful Cy Young contender in Alek Manoah in Game 1, or if they go with an experienced veteran in Kevin Gausman. Either way I’m all but certain that Schneider will turn to the pair to start the first two games, and rightfully so. Gausman has lived up to the free agent contract he signed last winter, posting a 12-10 record with a 3.30 ERA over 30 starts so far this year, and Manoah has been one of the best arms in the American League while going 15-7 with a 2.31 ERA over 30 turns through the rotation of his own.

If you had asked this question at the beginning of the season, 99% of us would have assumed that Jose Berrios would factor into the top three. However, at this point I don’t think there’s any denying that Ross Stripling is third on the depth chart, and you could make an argument for even better than that. The pending free agent has been a godsend for the Blue Jays this year as they’ve navigated Hyun Jin Ryu’s season-ending Tommy John surgery, as well as the struggles for Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi.

The only argument I’m really willing to hear at this point is the fact that Stripling is more experienced as a reliever than the rest of his rotation mates. With that in mind, I can understand the argument for piggy-backing him with Berrios in case the latter has one of his “on” nights, but I don’t know that it’s worth the risk when Stripling has been so solid this year. I certainly wouldn’t roll the dice that way, and I doubt that Schneider and Walker will either.

If the Blue Jays advance beyond the first round then Berrios is going to have to start at some point, and I’m sure he’ll be on the playoff roster even if he’s not in the rotation plans right away. However, in a three-game series, give me Manoah, Gausman, and Stripling all day.