Blue Jays: An early prediction of the postseason roster

The Blue Jays have just six games left in the regular season, and soon they’ll have to make some tough decisions about their postseason roster.

Once the playoffs begin the rosters will drop back to their usual number of 26, which means they will be down two players from the group they’ve carried throughout September. The only problem with that is that they will have to leave a useful player or two off the postseason roster, and it’ll be a little more difficult than usual.

They’ll have a few variables that will factor into their decisions, especially when it comes to the health of some of their injured regulars. For example, Lourdes Gurrriel Jr. is doing what he can to  get healthy before the regular season ends, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to factor into the playoff run. The same goes for Santiago Espinal, who mlb.com’s Keegan Matheson reported on Wednesday was “a little behind” of the progress that they’ve seen from Gurriel Jr.

Thankfully the Jays have a fair bit of versatility on their active roster, which has helped to cover the absences of Gurriel Jr. and Espinal, and could be required to do the same early in the playoffs.

One of the other significant variables is the fact that the opening round is just a best of three series, which means the Jays could get creative with how they build things out. For example, that likely means they won’t need a fourth or fifth starter, at least not until the second round should they make it that far.

There’s still a chance a few things could change over the next week as well, but for now I thought I’d take an early stab at what the roster will look like in a little over a week.

The Rotation

A few weeks ago it seemed like Schneider and Pete Walker were going to have a tough decision about who to use in their playoff rotation. As we near the end of the regular season, I feel like this is one area of the team that has pretty much decided itself.

The only question I really have at this point is whether they prefer to start their youthful Cy Young contender in Alek Manoah in Game 1, or if they go with an experienced veteran in Kevin Gausman. Either way I’m all but certain that Schneider will turn to the pair to start the first two games, and rightfully so. Gausman has lived up to the free agent contract he signed last winter, posting a 12-10 record with a 3.30 ERA over 30 starts so far this year, and Manoah has been one of the best arms in the American League while going 15-7 with a 2.31 ERA over 30 turns through the rotation of his own.

If you had asked this question at the beginning of the season, 99% of us would have assumed that Jose Berrios would factor into the top three. However, at this point I don’t think there’s any denying that Ross Stripling is third on the depth chart, and you could make an argument for even better than that. The pending free agent has been a godsend for the Blue Jays this year as they’ve navigated Hyun Jin Ryu’s season-ending Tommy John surgery, as well as the struggles for Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi.

The only argument I’m really willing to hear at this point is the fact that Stripling is more experienced as a reliever than the rest of his rotation mates. With that in mind, I can understand the argument for piggy-backing him with Berrios in case the latter has one of his “on” nights, but I don’t know that it’s worth the risk when Stripling has been so solid this year. I certainly wouldn’t roll the dice that way, and I doubt that Schneider and Walker will either.

If the Blue Jays advance beyond the first round then Berrios is going to have to start at some point, and I’m sure he’ll be on the playoff roster even if he’s not in the rotation plans right away. However, in a three-game series, give me Manoah, Gausman, and Stripling all day.

The Bullpen

While the rotation may not be that big of a debate, there’s room for argument in the bullpen. If we count 14 position players and four starters, that leaves space for eight relievers. Teams can carry up to 13 pitchers, but it’s not uncommon to see teams go with just 12 because they can drop at least one starter from the equation, especially in a short series.

You could also include Berrios with the eight names below, giving you nine relievers to work with, and you have to hope that should be plenty. Here’s how I see the Blue Jays drawing it up:

1- Jordan Romano
2- Yimi Garcia
3- Tim Mayza
4- Anthony Bass
5- Adam Cimber
6- David Phelps
7- Trevor Richards
8- Zach Pop
*- Berrios

While they had a dark period during the early/mid portion of the season, the bullpen has been one of the Blue Jays’ recent strengths, and hopefully that will continue into the playoffs. In a perfect world with deep outings from their starters, Schneider has plenty of options to attack opposing hitters with different looks, just as they have in the second half.

The noteworthy names I’ve left out include Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White from the current active roster, and others like Julian Merryweather, and yes, Nate Pearson. With just six games left in the regular season I feel like this is the group they’ll go with in the first round. The only guy that could be on the bubble would be Pop, but he hasn’t allowed a run over his last seven outings and should have pitched his way on to the postseason roster in my opinion. If they can advance to the second round, my guess would be White joins the bullpen as a long-man, as Berrios would move back into the rotation at that point.

Of course, I could be wrong about a lot of what I just said, even if a lot of the roster decisions are fairly obvious. Thankfully the Blue Jays are mostly healthy as they head into the postseason (knock on wood), and as I’ve said many times throughout the season, they have the potential to do some serious damage if they can get hot at the right time. Regardless of how they work with the 26-man roster, they have the talent to be the kind of team others won’t want to face.