The Blue Jays’ best chance to put the AL on notice

With 23 games remaining in the regular season, this week’s five-game series with the Rays may be the most important games of the year for the Blue Jays, and it’s a chance to make an important statement to the rest of the contenders in the American League field.

Up until their 8-2 stretch over their just-completed road trip, the Blue Jays were rightly viewed as a fringe contender in the AL that could squeak into the postseason with the last Wild Card spot. The last ten games have really shifted the Wild Card picture, with the Rays and Mariners being tied for the first (and second) Wild Card spots, and the Jays just a half game behind in the third position. The biggest difference is that the Orioles have fallen to 5.5 games back of the Blue Jays, and they’re the closest to the trio currently in position to move on.

Obviously the Blue Jays can’t forget about the Orioles, or others like the White Sox and Twins, but their recent hot streak may have allowed them to shift their focus a little. Instead of simply just trying to make the playoffs, now it feels like the Jays can actually make a push to finish higher than the 6th seed, and their best opportunity begins on Monday night.

The Blue Jays and Rays still have a total of nine head to head matchups before the regular season is over, but this week is a five-game series at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Not only is it important to take advantage of playing in front of your home crowd on your own field, but in this case it comes with the added bonus of not being “the Trop”, the home field for the Rays, which has been the bane of the Blue Jays’ existence for years.

With just half a game between the two clubs, the Blue Jays could not only overtake the Rays in the Wild Card standings this week, but they could even send them out town a game or two behind. Not that I’m banking on a sweep, but that would put the Blue Jays 4.5 games ahead of the Rays, for example. Even a 3-2 series win would move the Blue Jays up at least one spot, ahead of Tampa Bay of course.

On top of the Wild Card picture, if the Blue Jays managed an 11th hour push for the AL East title, they’re going to have to leapfrog the Rays before they can get to the Yankees. At the end of the MLB schedule on Sunday the Yankees hold a 5.5 lead over the Rays, and they’re 6.0 games ahead of the Blue Jays, who do have two games in hand over the Bronx Bombers. The Blue Jays and Yankees only play three more games against each other this year, so it’s not the same nine-game opportunity to finally chase down and hopefully pass the Rays.

While part of me just wants to see the Blue Jays qualify for the postseason, there is an advantage to finishing with a higher seed. For example, in the first round the higher seed gets to host all three games. With the new format for the postseason, the Jays could finish with the top Wild Card spot, which would give them the 4th seed and the chance to play at home in the opening round. In the event that the Blue Jays and Rays finished 4th and 5th, for example, it’s all that more important to get to play at home. That brings us back to the 5-game series they’re about to start here.

John Schneider and the Blue Jays clearly see the significance of the next five games, even going with a “bullpen game” on Sunday against the Rangers so they could line up their best rotation options against the Rays this week. Right now the Blue Jays are part of what looks like a second-tier of AL contenders along with the Rays, Mariners, and whomever comes out of the Central. That said, the Jays have a chance shift the landscape of the AL playoff picture again this week, going from a team that should squeak into the playoffs, to one that’s really putting the American League on notice as we enter the final stretch run.