Blue Jays: Which teams do they have to worry about the most?

The Blue Jays are right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. Which teams are they competing with for a playoff spot, and also for home-field advantage in the first round?

With 33 games left in the regular season for the Blue Jays, there’s still a chance that the playoff race in the American League could change. That said, lately it feels like the field is starting to narrow a bit for the Jays and the rest of the American League contenders, and the picture is starting to become a bit more clear.

At this stage the Blue Jays are highly unlikely to catch up to the Yankees in the AL East, as they are 8.0 games back of the division leaders as of this writing on Wednesday evening. It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility, and the Yankees haven’t been the same team at all in the second half, but they’d really have to falter to give up the division crown.

Assuming that’s the case, they will have to settle for a Wild Card spot, which won’t be a given at all when you look at the field. It not only matters that they secure one of those three spots, but it also matters where they finish among that group. As things stand right now the Jays hold the third Wild Card position with a 2.0 game lead on surprising Orioles.

It’s not just the Orioles that the Blue Jays will have to keep an eye on, especially if their realistic goal might be to shoot for that top Wild Card spot. Let’s have a look at the field of contenders.

Almost out of the race

While it’s almost at the point when you could call it a five-team race in the AL Wild Card picture, there are still two more teams that could change that narrative, even if it’s starting to look unlikely.

First up would be the Boston Red Sox, who have fallen to the bottom of the AL East after being one of the better teams in the American League for several years. After beating the Twins on Wednesday night they’re now 63-68, and 8.0 games behind the Blue Jays for the final postseason spot. Just as I said that I don’t really expect the Blue Jays to make up 8.0 games on the Yankees before the end of the year, I’d be very surprised if Boston can do the same in the Wild Card picture, especially when they have other teams to leapfrog as well. Things just haven’t gone their way this year, whether you’re talking about disappointing performances or a plethora of injury issues, but don’t be surprised if they’re back in the thick of things in 2023, even if the AL East is scarier than ever.

The other team I’d put in the same category would be Tony LaRussa’s Chicago White Sox, who are now 63-66 and 7.0 games back of the Blue Jays. There is a ton of talent in Chicago these days, and they were expected to be a legitimate American League contender in 2022, but it just hasn’t come together for the north siders.

The White Sox managed to snap their five-game losing streak by beating the Royals last night, but they were just 2-8 over their last 10 games prior to the win. They’re not completely out of the picture yet, but I think I’d bet on the Red Sox before I’d put much faith in the White Sox turning their season around.

For what it’s worth, the Blue Jays only have three games remaining against either team, with a three-game series against the Red Sox slated for Sept 30-Oct 2. Hopefully there’s only one team playing for anything once we get to that point.

Arguably the biggest threat is laying in the weeds

I know everyone is talking about the Orioles right now, and with good reason, but the team that worries me the most over the last 30 or so games would be the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins are chasing the Guardians in the AL Central, and it’s entirely possible that they win the division and we could talk about Cleveland here instead. Regardless, the Blue Jays need to keep an eye on whichever team finishes second in that division race, because they could seriously factor into the Wild Card standings.

As of the end of play on Wednesday night the Twins are 67-62, which leaves them three games back of the Blue Jays for the last Wild Card spot. It’s a pretty rare thing for me to be cheering for the Red Sox, but that’s exactly what I was doing on Wednesday.

I feel like the Twins are a sleeper team in the American League, and the type of club that could do some damage if they can make the postseason. They have a deep and talented lineup including the likes of Luis Arraez, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco and more, and they can trot out a pretty competitive rotation as well between Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and a strong bullpen to boot.

Not only do I feel like they’d be a threat if they can make the playoffs, I believe they’ll be the biggest obstacle keeping the Blue Jays from playing postseason baseball in 2022. Unfortunately there are no more head to head match-ups between the two teams, so I imagine both clubs will be doing plenty of scoreboard watching as we enter the stretch.

A dangerous team out west

I know that the Yankees are having a great year, but there are at least two other teams that I’m even more worried about the Blue Jays facing come playoff time, and that’s the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners.

The latter currently holds the second Wild Card spot with a 72-58 record, which leaves them 1.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays as of this writing. The team with the longest active streak of missing the postseason might finally be able to end the drought this fall, and I think they have the roster to do it.

Led by the likes of Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Mitch Haniger, Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo, and many more, the Mariners are a nice mix of veteran leadership and youthful talent. They’ve had a lot of issues with the health of their roster throughout the season, but they’re pretty close to full strength these days, and we’re getting a first-hand look at why they’re so dangerous.

Unfortunately the Jays and Mariners are also done their season series, so there will be some scoreboard watching going on here as well. And while there could be room for both teams to qualify, where they finish is important. For example, if the playoffs began today then the Mariners would be the fifth seed, and play on the road against the top Wild Card team, which is the Rays. I think I’d rather the Blue Jays square off against the Guardians than the Rays, and that’s especially the case because the higher seed will get to host all three games of the opening round.

In a perfect world (other than storming back to win the division somehow) the Blue Jays will find a way to finish in the top Wild Card spot, which would give them the home field advantage in the first round. For a home crowd north of the border that’s hungry for another playoff game, let’s hope that’s exactly how it plays out. If the Blue Jays are going to get there though, they’re going to need to best the Mariners.

Last but certainly not least

A list of AL contenders wouldn’t be complete without talking about the Tampa Bay Rays, right? I look forward to the day that they’re at the bottom of the AL East, but I’m not sure it’s coming any time soon. They always seem to find a way, and despite dealing with injuries to star players pretty much for the entire season the Rays still find themselves in the top Wild Card spot with a record of 72-57, which puts them 2.0 games ahead of the Blue Jays.

I can resolve myself to the fact that the Rays are going to find a way into the postseason pretty much no matter what, but I’m really, really hoping that the Blue Jays don’t play them in the first round and make their home at the Trop. Playing on the road against the Rays has been a nightmare for the Blue Jays for many years, and it’s definitely something to be avoided, even if there’s not much of a supportive fanbase for a consistently competitive team.

More important than the butts in the seats or the stadium they’re in is the fact that the Rays are starting to get healthier, and they’re more dangerous as a result. Pete Fairbanks is back in the bullpen picture after missing most of the year, and Nick Anderson isn’t too far behind. They’re still missing some key pieces like Shan McClanahan, Wander Franco, and Brandon Lowe, but each has a chance to be healthy and factor into the postseason equation.

As far as the rest of the regular season goes, the two teams still have nine games to play against each other. The Blue Jays will host five games in four days from Sept 12-15, and Tampa will return the favour at the Trop with four more from Sept 22-25. Just like with the head to head matchups with the Orioles, the Jays have a chance to determine their own destiny, and they’re going to have to find a way to come out on top against a tough opponent.

For the Blue Jays, it’s one of those things where if they want to be the best, they’re going to have to beat the best, and that includes the pesky Tampa Bay Rays. Whether it’s a battle for a Wild Card spot at all, or even just for position and home field advantage, the Jays have their work cut out for them. Hopefully this talented young team is up to the task.