Toronto Blue Jays: AL East Matchups to Watch For Through the End of the Season

Tampa Bay Rays

With nine more games against Tampa Bay, winning at least five of them would help the Jays gain at least one game on the Rays, all else equal.

Winning six of them would ensure the Jays hold the season series tiebreaker 10-9, which will determine playoff seeding in case of a tie after the 162-game regular season. But the Rays are playing some of their best baseball of the season, going 7-3 in their past ten with a +55 run differential that only trails the Yankees and Astros in the American League.

They’ve just given a two-year contract extension through 2024 to the rehabbing Tyler Glasnow, and last year locked up star shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year deal worth $182 million, with an option for a 12th year for a total of $223 million. This signifies a change in payroll upside for the Rays, who have never previously paid any player a $25 million annual salary.

Since trading for super-utilityman Isaac Parades ahead of their season opener, and adding LF David Peralta and CF Jose Siri ahead of the August 2nd trade deadline, the Rays have been having a solid season.

The team is 16-9 since the trade deadline and features strong starting pitching led by Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan, and a lights-out bullpen featuring former Blue Jay Jason Adam, Brooks Raley, Colin Poche and Pete Fairbanks.

Their team ERA is the third best in baseball after the Dodgers and Guardians since August 2nd at 2.97, and they lead baseball on FIP at 2.97 as well. This is a team that doesn’t beat itself, with only 64 unearned runs on 63 errors season to date and they have just enough offense to win 70 games so far and go 30-25 against AL East opponents season to date.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Baltimore Orioles

While FanGraphs only puts their playoff odds at around ~10% at present, they have a slightly easier strength of schedule than the Jays remaining at .506%. With ten more games against Baltimore, winning seven of them would ensure the Jays hold the season series tiebreaker 10-9, which will determine playoff seeding in case of a tie.

That will be a tough ask though, as seven of their remaining ten head-to-head games are at Camden Yards, where the Orioles are 37-24 (.607 winning percentage). The O’s have also gone 15-9 since trading away longtime star Trey Mancini and closer Jorge Lopez at the trade deadline.

And as per MLBTR,

The Orioles – the surprise of the 2022 season – have some decisions to make about their September roster. The biggest decisions center on top prospects Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, and Gunnar Henderson, the 56th, 4th, and top-ranked prospects in the game, per Baseball America.

This is a good team, brimming with prospects and full of solid hitters and pitchers. They have the 11th lowest FIP in baseball (and 6th lowest in the AL) since August 2nd, not to mention the 9th lowest ERA at 3.55 (7th in the AL) driven by an outstanding bullpen. By comparison, the Blue Jays own a 3.96 ERA  and a 3.87 FIP over the same time period.

The Orioles hitters have been performing well ahead of expectations as well, led by phenom catcher Adley Rutschman and RF Anthony Santander.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Boston and New York

Not to be forgotten are the remaining games head-to-head versus the Yankees (three games) and Red Sox (three games).

These will be over a home stand straddling September and October. While the Blue Jays have already taken the season series versus Boston, that tiebreaker is meaningless given the Sox are 8.0 games back in the Wild Card standings and not playing well. The Jays already swept Boston at Fenway last week after taking three of four from the Yankees in the Bronx.

The Yankees continue their swoon, going 8-17 since the trade deadline. If anything, these may be statement games for the Blue Jays ahead of a potential postseason series in the ALDS or ALCS. Another three-game sweep would also give the Jays the season series 10-9, which may not help in a tiebreaker given they remain 8.0 games back in the AL East, but it would certainly add to the postseason series intrigue should they meet after the Wild Card round.

Despite decent pitching (3.85 ERA and 4.04 FIP since August 2nd), the Yankee bats have gone dead; they’re slashing just .219/.295/.340/.635 since then, with a power outage beyond likely AL MVP Aaron Judge.

Regardless of what happens, this is what baseball fandom is all about: meaningful baseball games as the calendar turns to September and October.

With the Blue Jays in the middle of their competitive window, fans should be thrilled to bear witness to a potential playoff run. Given the team hasn’t won a single playoff game since the ALCS team of 2016, they just have to get in to have a chance to break that curse.

Whether or not they can break the now 29-year World Series drought is a matter for another article. But as the appearance of Blue Jays royalty proved last weekend, with the 30th-anniversary celebration of the 1992 World Series Champions, that is definitely a potential outcome.

So let’s enjoy these key matchups against AL East opponents through the end of the season and see where it takes the team, the city and the country. Let’s go Jays!