How do the Blue Jays stack up against other AL contenders?

With the playoffs rapidly approaching, the Blue Jays are right in the heat of the American League postseason race. While the Jays have sat in a playoff spot for the vast majority of the season, they’re still only a few losses away from being on the outside looking in.

Now more than ever, it’s important to look at the other contenders in the American League and how the Blue Jays stack up against them.

To look at this, I’m going to break the AL postseason contenders into three tiers; playoff hopefuls, likely playoff teams, and playoff locks. With all that said, let’s get started.

Playoff Hopefuls: Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox

This group is a bit of a mixed bag, ranging from the White Sox, who were heavily favoured to win the AL Central entering 2022, to the Twins, who had little to no expectations for this season, to the Orioles, who were almost universally expected to once again be one of the worst teams in baseball. Despite this, all these teams find themselves in a similar situation, sitting a few games back of a playoff spot with just over a month to go.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles, who sit 2.5 games back of the Mariners for the final Wild Card, have been the biggest surprise of the 2022 season.

They currently have a 6-3 record against Toronto this season with 10 more games still to be played and have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past few months. Led by rookie catcher and former number one overall MLB prospect, Adley Rutschman, they’ve just found ways to win ball games as of late. After years of having little to no offensive output, they’ve finally put together a league-average offense, but that’s not what their biggest asset has been.

Despite abysmal starting pitching, they have an elite bullpen, even after trading closer, Jorge Lopez, to the Twins at the deadline. Headlined by guys like Felix Bautista, Dillon Tate, Cionel Perez, and Keegan Akin, their bullpen has a combined ERA of 3.19, which is fourth best in MLB, behind only the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers. This has given them the upper hand in lots of close games and could make them deadly in a short playoff series.

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On paper, the Jays would appear to be the better team, but as their matchups with Baltimore thus far have shown, that isn’t necessarily the case. They’ve struggled to rack up runs on the Orioles’ less-than-stellar starting pitchers, and have honestly played some of their worst baseball against them. Despite this, I think the Blue Jays match up favourably against them in a potential postseason meeting.

In a situation where the Jays would have their best starters on the mound, I don’t think the Orioles would be able to limit the offense enough to allow their bullpen to win them the game. I recognize how much they’ve struggled against Baltimore this year, but I think the talent gap between teams is so large that in a winner take all situation, I wouldn’t worry too much about the O’s.

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins have also been a bit of a surprise this season, as they led the AL Central from late April through early August. They’ve since fallen off, sitting four games back of both the division and the final Wild Card spot, but are still very much in the postseason race.

Led by hitters like Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton, they’ve had one of MLB’s better offenses in 2022 and added relievers Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer at the deadline to help shore up their bullpen. Unsurprisingly, their starting rotation has been their biggest issue this season, and with trade deadline acquisition, Tyler Mahle, now on the 15-day IL it’s still very much a concern.

With the postseason rapidly approaching, it’s time to start looking ahead at how the Blue Jays stack up against the top teams in the American League.

Much like the Orioles, the Twins have given the Blue Jays everything they could handle this season, taking the season series 4-3. Unlike the Orioles, the Twins have not been hot lately, having not posted a winning month since May, and have been plagued with inconsistency all year. If they had a fully healthy roster, they could be a legit threat in a postseason series, but that is a huge if, as the vast majority of their team has had some sort of setback throughout the season. No matter which way you look at it, this is a favourable matchup for the Jays.

Chicago White Sox

As I mentioned before, the Chicago White Sox entered 2022 as runaway favourites to win the AL Central, but with less than a week left in August, they sit tied with the Twins five games back of a playoff spot. This whole season they sort of just hung around, not being particularly good but not particularly bad either, which has kept them in the postseason race to this point.

Their offense has taken a huge hit this season, ranking 19th in runs per game, after finishing top-eight in each of the past two seasons. Their pitching has been similarly lacklustre, currently sitting 20th in runs allowed per game, despite a Cy Young contention caliber season from Dylan Cease, and a pleasant surprise in Johnny Cueto. Players like Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Yasmani Grandal, and Yoan Moncada, have all had atrocious years despite entering with high expectations, and have led to a team that’s seemed lost all season.

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The Blue Jays took the season series 4-2 against the White Sox and were without question the better of the two teams when they faced off. Despite their struggles, this team still has a very easy remaining schedule, with series against teams like the Tigers, Royals, A’s, Rockies, and Diamondbacks remaining, so they could certainly find a way to sneak into the postseason should another team or two struggle down the stretch. In a potential matchup with Toronto, I imagine the Jays would be heavily favoured, and while it’s not inconceivable that Chicago could win, I like Toronto’s odds.

Likely Playoff Teams: Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners

This group of teams is who I would consider being in the same tier as the Blue Jays. By no means are any of them locks to make the postseason, but if I had to put money on it, these are the teams I would pick. Much like the last tier, even though these teams are all grouped together, they’re all very different.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays were the top seed in the American League the past two seasons, and while few people expected them to do it for a third straight year, the general consensus seemed to be that they would be back in the postseason in 2022.

The Rays sit in the top Wild Card spot, half a game ahead of the Blue Jays, a game and a half ahead of the Mariners, and four games ahead of the Orioles. After finishing third in MLB for OPS+ in 2021, their offense has taken a big step back, now being relatively average. Their pitching, however, has been outstanding, with their 3.29 team ERA ranking third in MLB. Outside of Cy Young candidate, Shane McClanahan, and 2021 American League Rookie of the Year, Randy Arozarena, as per usual, the Rays have been comprised mostly of a rag-tag group of misfits cobbled together to somehow win a lot of baseball games. Highly touted shortstop, Wander Franco, has missed significant time due to injury, and star second baseman, Brandon Lowe, has failed to fully meet expectations, which has forced players like Yandy Diaz, Ji-Man Choi, Harold Ramirez, and Isaac Paredes, to step up and lead their offense.

Their pitching staff is, once again, mostly a group of guys you have never heard of that do what’s asked of them.

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The unorthodox nature of the Rays’ roster construction makes them both very beatable and incredibly dangerous at the same time since their reliance on so many different players leads to plenty of inconsistency. This makes them a tough team to project when it comes to the postseason, but in general, while I think the Blue Jays stack up well against them, they aren’t necessarily a team I would be eager to face. They currently lead the season series with the Jays 6-4, with nine matchups still remaining. I think the Blue Jays’ offensive depth and improved bullpen certainly give them the upper hand against Tampa, but this is a team that has historical given the Jays a lot of problems, so they’re a team I’d rather not face, come October.

Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians might be the least talked about good team in baseball. They’re not really someone you think about often, but when you really look at them, the only conclusion you could come to is that they’re pretty good.

In their first season under the “Guardians” moniker, they’ve struggled to draw crowds, currently ranking 25th in average attendance, and receive little national media coverage, but are somehow in control of the AL Central. Led by Jose Ramirez, who’s having another elite season, and Andres Gimenez, who’s turned himself into arguably the best second baseman in baseball, the Guardians have produced a solid offense in 2022 to go along with some pretty good pitching, led by the likes of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Emmanuel Clase, who may be the best closer on the planet.

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The Guardians were not kind to the Blue Jays this season, winning the season series 5-2, and have been hot so far in August, with a record of 14-7. Their offense has some really high-end bats and their rotation could eat innings in a potential playoff matchup, so even though they may not be the class of the league, they could present a challenge in the postseason.

There are no real holes in their game, but I think their biggest weakness may be that they’re more of a jack of all trades, master of none. Both their offense and pitching could be outmatched by the Blue Jays, but they’re a team that you can’t afford to play poorly against. I still think the Jays would stack up favourably in the postseason, but I think they may be the biggest dark horse in the American League.

Seattle Mariners

After a rough start to their season, the Seattle Mariners have gone 38-18 since going ten games below .500 in mid-June, and have been one of baseball’s hottest teams.

A popular pick to end their MLB-leading, 20-year playoff drought, the Mariners have been squarely in the Wild Card race for the past couple months and currently sit 2.5 games ahead of the Orioles for the final spot. They’ve been solid on almost every level, with an offense that’s loaded with good players, namely Rookie of the Year frontrunner, Julio Rodriguez, they appear to be on pace to do what they haven’t done in over two decades. Despite adding 2021 Cy Young winner, Robbie Ray, in the offseason, their rotation has been largely disappointing, but the addition of Luis Castillo at the deadline, and their rock-solid bullpen should more than keep them afloat for the rest of the year. They’re an easy team to root for and play an exciting brand of baseball, which could make them dangerous down the stretch.

After the Blue Jays took their first series against the Mariners 2-1 early in the season in Toronto, they ran into them again in the midst of a 14-game Seattle winning streak and got swept in a four-game series. At that time the Mariners were playing their best ball of the season, and the Jays were likely playing their worst, but those games still count for something, and they show that this could be a tough team to face in the postseason.

When it comes down to it though, I think a lot of what the Mariners do well, the Blue Jays are capable of doing better, and while they’re no pushover, I think Toronto’s offense matches up favourably against an inconsistent Seattle rotation.