Blue Jays: What if you have to choose which stars to keep?

Looking ahead to the next few seasons, the Blue Jays not only have some roster needs to address, but they also have some tough decisions to make.

I’ll admit that this might be an odd thing to think about as the Jays are in the midst of a playoff race here in 2022, and especially because things have been going much better lately, but allow me to explain. I think most of us can agree that there are still some holes with this roster, and unless this team goes on a run and finds some significant playoff success this year, I feel like it’s likely that some changes are coming to the core of this team. I also say that because the contract situations are going to dictate that sorta thing as well, and regardless of how well things go in Toronto over the next 3-5 years, they likely won’t be able to keep everybody.

That means that Ross Atkins and/or any future front office decision-makers will have some tough choices to make, and at least a few of them could shape the direction of the franchise over the next half decade or more. No pressure right?

There are almost unlimited ways that this whole thing could go down, but I thought it would be fun to look at three choices I feel like the Blue Jays will have to make in the not so distant future. A lot could change before some of these calls have to be made, but I don’t think it’s ever too early to think about long-term planning with an MLB roster.

With that in mind, here are three decisions that I see coming up, and I’ll even give you my take on what I think the Jays should do.

Getting the most out of an embarrassment of riches

Looking back at this season’s trade deadline, I’ll admit that I was surprised that the Blue Jays weren’t a little more aggressive. I’m sure that Ross Atkins and company were in on many of the top players that were moved ahead of Aug 2nd, but with all due respect to Whit Merrifield, Mitch White, Anthony Bass, and Zach Pop, it felt a bit underwhelming.

One of the reasons for that, at least for me, was that I had braced myself for a pretty significant trade for the Blue Jays, and likely one that included a top-tier catcher. It seemed unthinkable a few months ago, but I even wondered if the Jays would consider trading Gabriel Moreno in light of Alejandro Kirk’s breakout season. If that’s the case, Atkins and company had a major trade chip with one of Baseball America’s top prospects.

With Kirk and Danny Jansen handling duties at the highest level, the Blue Jays haven’t had the need for Moreno in the big leagues lately, even if he’s certainly MLB ready. That’s especially the case now that George Springer is active and will likely spend a fair bit of time as the designated hitter, and there are only so many starts to go around behind the plate.

That said, I can’t imagine they’ll go into another season with the same set up, even if it’s a nice luxury to have. Moreno needs to be on a big league roster in 2023, and if that’s not going to happen in Toronto then it’s worthwhile to see if they can turn a very valuable player into answers to some of the other holes on the roster.

I mentioned earlier that I’d tell you what I think the Blue Jays should do with each situation, and I’m fully aware that this is a debatable topic among the fan base. I’ll also take a bit of an early cop out on this one in particular, just in saying that the return the Blue Jays could get for each player would very much impact which one I’d trade.

The place I’d start is by seeing what Jansen could fetch on the trade market, and I mostly say that because he only has two years left of contract control before he’ll be a free agent. He’s a solid defensive catcher and he’s also shown some pop with the bat at times as well, and I’m sure there would be interested suitors.

More likely though, I think the Blue Jays are going to have to make a tough call by trading one of Kirk or Moreno this winter, at least if they want to maximize their return. I can see the argument for trading either player, and again, it’ll depend on what’s coming back to Toronto in this case, but I have to admit that I’m fascinated with the idea of what Kirk could fetch. I know that sounds borderline blasphemous, but stay with me as I explain.

I really, really like what he’s brought to the table with his bat, and also on defence. Having said that, I think it’s possible that Kirk could be at his peak value right now, especially after being named as the starting catcher for the AL All-Star team this season. I’m not at all suggesting that he couldn’t repeat the honour, but I will say that I’ll be surprised if he’s a consistent .300 hitter who could hit 25-30 home runs a year. Prior to heating up last week he had slashed just .200/.298/.220 with no home runs and just two RBI over 15 games, hitting his coldest stretch of the year. Even admitting that all players go through ups and downs over the course of a long season, it’s felt like a bit of a reality check. Of course, he’s now turned things around again lately, and it’ll be interesting to see how he finishes up a long 162 game campaign.

I know many fans were ready for the team to trade Moreno at the deadline, and I’ll concede that I had accepted the reality of the situation too, but I have to admit that I’d prefer for the Blue Jays to hang on to the 20 year old for now, and hopefully give him a big league role next year. Before that can happen, something’s gotta give though, and I think we’ll see it coming this winter.

What to do about the outfield

As the Blue begin the 2023 season, they could be looking at three different outfielders playing on expiring contracts.

That’s the case for Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and also for their new acquisition in Whit Merrifield, who doubles as a second baseman as well. There will still be four years left on George Springer’s contract after the 2022 campaign, and there’s a decent chance he’ll eventually move to a corner outfield spot at some point, even if it’s not yet in 2023.

Add it all up and it’s not hard to see that the Blue Jays are going to have a tough choice to make when it comes to their corner outfielders, and it might be wise to get ahead of the situation a bit. I also believe that barring some significant postseason success in 2022, that the front office will look to tweak this roster in a substantial way, and the outfield might be the place to do it.

With all of that in mind, I feel like that chances are that only one of these three players will still be a Blue Jay by 2024. At 33 years old, I think we can likely take Merrifield off the table, unless he’s more of a second base/utility guy that point and there’s a role for him to return to.

That leaves us with Hernandez and Gurriel Jr., and it won’t be an easy decision if the Jays decide they can only re-sign one of the two. They’re both beloved in the clubhouse and among the fan base, and both have the youth and talent to appeal to the team as extension candidates. However, with an increasing payroll and other salary demands coming in the future, it’s hard to imagine everybody gets paid unless there’s a World Series ring or two involved.

If I had to make a bet on which Blue Jay outfielder will still be here in 2024, I think I’d put my money on it being Gurriel Jr. I didn’t feel that way a year or even six months ago, but to me it seems like the more feasible play for the front office. He’ll likely come a bit cheaper than Herrnandez, as the latter is a two-time Silver Slugger winner with an All-Star appearance on his resume as well, and that kinda thing matters in free agent negotiations. With what could be a tight budget, I flat out think it’ll be harder to be able to find a way to pay Hernandez.

Secondly though, Gurriel Jr. has developed into a quality hitter at the plate, and one that takes a different approach than most of his teammates. That’s a refreshing thing for a Blue Jays lineup that can get a bit redundant at times, and Gurriel Jr’s .299/.351/.406 slash line stands out even if he’s only hit five home runs this year. He also adds a bit of value to the team with his ability to play first base, and in an emergency, he could likely play at other spots in the infield as well.

As I said, it won’t be an easy call for the Blue Jays front office as they decide what to do with their outfield in the future, but if I had to pick a guy that I think will still be around, it’s Lourdes Gurriel Jr.