Blue Jays: What if you have to choose which stars to keep?

Looking ahead to the next few seasons, the Blue Jays not only have some roster needs to address, but they also have some tough decisions to make.

I’ll admit that this might be an odd thing to think about as the Jays are in the midst of a playoff race here in 2022, and especially because things have been going much better lately, but allow me to explain. I think most of us can agree that there are still some holes with this roster, and unless this team goes on a run and finds some significant playoff success this year, I feel like it’s likely that some changes are coming to the core of this team. I also say that because the contract situations are going to dictate that sorta thing as well, and regardless of how well things go in Toronto over the next 3-5 years, they likely won’t be able to keep everybody.

That means that Ross Atkins and/or any future front office decision-makers will have some tough choices to make, and at least a few of them could shape the direction of the franchise over the next half decade or more. No pressure right?

There are almost unlimited ways that this whole thing could go down, but I thought it would be fun to look at three choices I feel like the Blue Jays will have to make in the not so distant future. A lot could change before some of these calls have to be made, but I don’t think it’s ever too early to think about long-term planning with an MLB roster.

With that in mind, here are three decisions that I see coming up, and I’ll even give you my take on what I think the Jays should do.

Getting the most out of an embarrassment of riches

Looking back at this season’s trade deadline, I’ll admit that I was surprised that the Blue Jays weren’t a little more aggressive. I’m sure that Ross Atkins and company were in on many of the top players that were moved ahead of Aug 2nd, but with all due respect to Whit Merrifield, Mitch White, Anthony Bass, and Zach Pop, it felt a bit underwhelming.

One of the reasons for that, at least for me, was that I had braced myself for a pretty significant trade for the Blue Jays, and likely one that included a top-tier catcher. It seemed unthinkable a few months ago, but I even wondered if the Jays would consider trading Gabriel Moreno in light of Alejandro Kirk’s breakout season. If that’s the case, Atkins and company had a major trade chip with one of Baseball America’s top prospects.

With Kirk and Danny Jansen handling duties at the highest level, the Blue Jays haven’t had the need for Moreno in the big leagues lately, even if he’s certainly MLB ready. That’s especially the case now that George Springer is active and will likely spend a fair bit of time as the designated hitter, and there are only so many starts to go around behind the plate.

That said, I can’t imagine they’ll go into another season with the same set up, even if it’s a nice luxury to have. Moreno needs to be on a big league roster in 2023, and if that’s not going to happen in Toronto then it’s worthwhile to see if they can turn a very valuable player into answers to some of the other holes on the roster.

I mentioned earlier that I’d tell you what I think the Blue Jays should do with each situation, and I’m fully aware that this is a debatable topic among the fan base. I’ll also take a bit of an early cop out on this one in particular, just in saying that the return the Blue Jays could get for each player would very much impact which one I’d trade.

The place I’d start is by seeing what Jansen could fetch on the trade market, and I mostly say that because he only has two years left of contract control before he’ll be a free agent. He’s a solid defensive catcher and he’s also shown some pop with the bat at times as well, and I’m sure there would be interested suitors.

More likely though, I think the Blue Jays are going to have to make a tough call by trading one of Kirk or Moreno this winter, at least if they want to maximize their return. I can see the argument for trading either player, and again, it’ll depend on what’s coming back to Toronto in this case, but I have to admit that I’m fascinated with the idea of what Kirk could fetch. I know that sounds borderline blasphemous, but stay with me as I explain.

I really, really like what he’s brought to the table with his bat, and also on defence. Having said that, I think it’s possible that Kirk could be at his peak value right now, especially after being named as the starting catcher for the AL All-Star team this season. I’m not at all suggesting that he couldn’t repeat the honour, but I will say that I’ll be surprised if he’s a consistent .300 hitter who could hit 25-30 home runs a year. Prior to heating up last week he had slashed just .200/.298/.220 with no home runs and just two RBI over 15 games, hitting his coldest stretch of the year. Even admitting that all players go through ups and downs over the course of a long season, it’s felt like a bit of a reality check. Of course, he’s now turned things around again lately, and it’ll be interesting to see how he finishes up a long 162 game campaign.

I know many fans were ready for the team to trade Moreno at the deadline, and I’ll concede that I had accepted the reality of the situation too, but I have to admit that I’d prefer for the Blue Jays to hang on to the 20 year old for now, and hopefully give him a big league role next year. Before that can happen, something’s gotta give though, and I think we’ll see it coming this winter.

Making a career commitment

As the Blue Jays have built the current roster over the last few years, they’ve done so with the luxury of at least a few young centrepieces. It’s one thing to have one superstar come up through the minor league ranks, but it’s a luxury to have two at the same time.

That’s what we’ve been looking at with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette for a while now, even if neither player is meeting the bars they’ve set for themselves in 2021. If this topic came up on social media a year ago, it wasn’t hard to find fans saying things like “give them 300 million each and call it a day!”, and I’ll admit that at times I’ve been one of them.

As the Blue Jays have gone back and forth between elite and average in 2022, it’s been a reality check for myself, and for the fan base when it comes to the development of young players. It was probably never realistic to expect Vlad Jr. to. match what he did last season, or at least for that to become the benchmark for his success. By almost any metric you can find, he’s still an elite hitter in the American League this year, even if he’s not one of the top two this time around. As for Bichette, I’ll admit that his struggles have been greater, but I’m not about to get too concerned about the long-term future of the 24 year old, even if I’ll admit it’s been an off year for him.

Fast forward to today, and I think you’d find a lot more reluctance among the fan base about a long-term commitment to the pair than you would have a year ago, and I imagine the same could be said for the front office to a degree. That said, I still think there’s a major appetite to make both players long-term fixtures in Toronto, it’s just very hard to imagine what that could look like, or when that commitment could happen.

There were reports of discussions about extensions that didn’t get very far over the winter, and I’d be surprised if that changed over the upcoming offseason. If I’m the agent for either player I would want to be negotiating from a place of strength, and the 2022 numbers may not provide that to its full potential. By waiting at least another year you could give each player a chance to earn more accolades, put up better numbers, get another year closer to free agency, and let the market grow on its own through other players. To that point, I’m sure both players want to see what the next contract for Juan Soto will look like, and he’ll be a free agent in two years if he doesn’t sign an extension first.

This is the kind of decision that the Blue Jays don’t have to make right away, and if I had to guess, I doubt they could get an extension done with either player over the winter for the reasons I’ve described above. On the plus side, that gives them more time to evaluate the market, the future of the franchise, and just how far they’re willing to go with a mega-contract.

As I’ve done with the other situations I’ve described, I’ll give an extremely early prediction for this one too. While I hope both players are playing north of the border for their entire careers, the early favourite has to be Vlad Jr. That could change ten times over the next four years, but as of right now it’s hard to argue against him as the face of the franchise.

As you look ahead to the future for the Blue Jays, what kind of roster decisions do you see coming? Feel free to let me know how wrong I am in the comments below.