Blue Jays: What if you have to choose which stars to keep?

Looking ahead to the next few seasons, the Blue Jays not only have some roster needs to address, but they also have some tough decisions to make.

I’ll admit that this might be an odd thing to think about as the Jays are in the midst of a playoff race here in 2022, and especially because things have been going much better lately, but allow me to explain. I think most of us can agree that there are still some holes with this roster, and unless this team goes on a run and finds some significant playoff success this year, I feel like it’s likely that some changes are coming to the core of this team. I also say that because the contract situations are going to dictate that sorta thing as well, and regardless of how well things go in Toronto over the next 3-5 years, they likely won’t be able to keep everybody.

That means that Ross Atkins and/or any future front office decision-makers will have some tough choices to make, and at least a few of them could shape the direction of the franchise over the next half decade or more. No pressure right?

There are almost unlimited ways that this whole thing could go down, but I thought it would be fun to look at three choices I feel like the Blue Jays will have to make in the not so distant future. A lot could change before some of these calls have to be made, but I don’t think it’s ever too early to think about long-term planning with an MLB roster.

With that in mind, here are three decisions that I see coming up, and I’ll even give you my take on what I think the Jays should do.

What to do about the outfield

As the Blue begin the 2023 season, they could be looking at three different outfielders playing on expiring contracts.

That’s the case for Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and also for their new acquisition in Whit Merrifield, who doubles as a second baseman as well. There will still be four years left on George Springer’s contract after the 2022 campaign, and there’s a decent chance he’ll eventually move to a corner outfield spot at some point, even if it’s not yet in 2023.

Add it all up and it’s not hard to see that the Blue Jays are going to have a tough choice to make when it comes to their corner outfielders, and it might be wise to get ahead of the situation a bit. I also believe that barring some significant postseason success in 2022, that the front office will look to tweak this roster in a substantial way, and the outfield might be the place to do it.

With all of that in mind, I feel like that chances are that only one of these three players will still be a Blue Jay by 2024. At 33 years old, I think we can likely take Merrifield off the table, unless he’s more of a second base/utility guy that point and there’s a role for him to return to.

That leaves us with Hernandez and Gurriel Jr., and it won’t be an easy decision if the Jays decide they can only re-sign one of the two. They’re both beloved in the clubhouse and among the fan base, and both have the youth and talent to appeal to the team as extension candidates. However, with an increasing payroll and other salary demands coming in the future, it’s hard to imagine everybody gets paid unless there’s a World Series ring or two involved.

If I had to make a bet on which Blue Jay outfielder will still be here in 2024, I think I’d put my money on it being Gurriel Jr. I didn’t feel that way a year or even six months ago, but to me it seems like the more feasible play for the front office. He’ll likely come a bit cheaper than Herrnandez, as the latter is a two-time Silver Slugger winner with an All-Star appearance on his resume as well, and that kinda thing matters in free agent negotiations. With what could be a tight budget, I flat out think it’ll be harder to be able to find a way to pay Hernandez.

Secondly though, Gurriel Jr. has developed into a quality hitter at the plate, and one that takes a different approach than most of his teammates. That’s a refreshing thing for a Blue Jays lineup that can get a bit redundant at times, and Gurriel Jr’s .299/.351/.406 slash line stands out even if he’s only hit five home runs this year. He also adds a bit of value to the team with his ability to play first base, and in an emergency, he could likely play at other spots in the infield as well.

As I said, it won’t be an easy call for the Blue Jays front office as they decide what to do with their outfield in the future, but if I had to pick a guy that I think will still be around, it’s Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Making a career commitment

As the Blue Jays have built the current roster over the last few years, they’ve done so with the luxury of at least a few young centrepieces. It’s one thing to have one superstar come up through the minor league ranks, but it’s a luxury to have two at the same time.

That’s what we’ve been looking at with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette for a while now, even if neither player is meeting the bars they’ve set for themselves in 2021. If this topic came up on social media a year ago, it wasn’t hard to find fans saying things like “give them 300 million each and call it a day!”, and I’ll admit that at times I’ve been one of them.

As the Blue Jays have gone back and forth between elite and average in 2022, it’s been a reality check for myself, and for the fan base when it comes to the development of young players. It was probably never realistic to expect Vlad Jr. to. match what he did last season, or at least for that to become the benchmark for his success. By almost any metric you can find, he’s still an elite hitter in the American League this year, even if he’s not one of the top two this time around. As for Bichette, I’ll admit that his struggles have been greater, but I’m not about to get too concerned about the long-term future of the 24 year old, even if I’ll admit it’s been an off year for him.

Fast forward to today, and I think you’d find a lot more reluctance among the fan base about a long-term commitment to the pair than you would have a year ago, and I imagine the same could be said for the front office to a degree. That said, I still think there’s a major appetite to make both players long-term fixtures in Toronto, it’s just very hard to imagine what that could look like, or when that commitment could happen.

There were reports of discussions about extensions that didn’t get very far over the winter, and I’d be surprised if that changed over the upcoming offseason. If I’m the agent for either player I would want to be negotiating from a place of strength, and the 2022 numbers may not provide that to its full potential. By waiting at least another year you could give each player a chance to earn more accolades, put up better numbers, get another year closer to free agency, and let the market grow on its own through other players. To that point, I’m sure both players want to see what the next contract for Juan Soto will look like, and he’ll be a free agent in two years if he doesn’t sign an extension first.

This is the kind of decision that the Blue Jays don’t have to make right away, and if I had to guess, I doubt they could get an extension done with either player over the winter for the reasons I’ve described above. On the plus side, that gives them more time to evaluate the market, the future of the franchise, and just how far they’re willing to go with a mega-contract.

As I’ve done with the other situations I’ve described, I’ll give an extremely early prediction for this one too. While I hope both players are playing north of the border for their entire careers, the early favourite has to be Vlad Jr. That could change ten times over the next four years, but as of right now it’s hard to argue against him as the face of the franchise.

As you look ahead to the future for the Blue Jays, what kind of roster decisions do you see coming? Feel free to let me know how wrong I am in the comments below.