Blue Jays: Three under the radar starting pitching trade options to consider

1. Merrill Kelly

Merrill Kelly has been a staple in the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation for a number of years now. He’s not an ace but is a very capable back-end starter who just so happens to be having his best season.

Kelly has gone 9-5 with a 3.26 ERA in 19 starts. He’s averaged 5.78 innings per start, much improved from the 4.06 Kikuchi has been giving Toronto. He’s not a huge strikeout guy as he only averages 7.6 K/9, but he excels at keeping the ball in the ballpark as he’s allowed just seven home runs in 110.1 innings pitched (0.6 HR/9).

Part of what makes Kelly appealing to me is the fact that he has three more years of team control. He’s set to make $8 million dollars in 2023 and 2024 with a club option for $7 million dollars in 2025. With Ryu likely out for next season, Kelly can slot in the rotation at least for next season as well on a solid contract.

The 33-year-old can give the Jays innings, which is something they desperately need especially with the state of the bullpen right now. Not only will he give innings, but they’d also be quality innings. The price won’t be very high, and the value is there.

2. Jose Quintana

Jose Quintana’s resurgence at age 33 has been surprising after struggling the last couple of years with the Cubs, Angels, and Giants organizations.

However, with Quintana making just $2 million dollars this season and eligible for free agency after this season, the Pirates will deal him to a contender. I believe the Jays should inquire.

He has gone 2-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 18 starts. The two wins are not representative of how he’s pitched at all. Like Kelly, he’s done really well at keeping the ball in the park, as he’s allowed just 0.7 HR/9. It’s very important for pitchers who pitch in Toronto and the AL East to be able to do that.

Quintana has amassed a 3.32 FIP which suggests he’s gotten a tad unlucky this season and still has a very solid ERA. He also has a 106 ERA+, putting him above average.

The Blue Jays need starting pitching depth at this year’s trade deadline to round out what’s been a very inconsistent rotation.

Despite not having overpowering stuff, Quintana has done a great job limiting hard contact, as he’s in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity according to baseball savant. He’s also in the 80th percentile in chase rate. The southpaw began his career in the AL Central with the White Sox and pitched really well when he visited Rogers Centre. He has a 1.08 ERA in 33.1 innings pitched, winning all five starts he’s made north of the border.

Quintana has also made three career postseason starts for the Cubs. Two of them went well, and one of them did not. With the rest of the Jays having limited postseason experience, it’ll be nice to have a veteran who’s done it before.

The Jays don’t need another ace. They need a guy at the back end who can go five or six innings and give the team a chance to win. Quintana has done that this season.

3. Drew Smyly

Another southpaw who can help the Blue Jays down the stretch is Drew Smyly. The veteran has pitched well for the Cubs this season, although he did miss over a month earlier this year due to an oblique injury.

Smyly has made two starts since the injury and threw 83 pitches in his last start before the All-Star break. In his 11 starts this season, he’s gone 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA. Again, the win-loss record is not indicative of how he’s pitched.

He’s allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his 11 starts and four runs or fewer in all of them. He’s not going to give the Jays seven scoreless very often, but he will give them a chance to win. With their offense, a five-inning start allowing a couple of runs should be fine.

Smyly fits a similar profile to Quintana and Kelly. He limits hard contact very well. He ranks in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity according to baseball savant and the 81st percentile in hard-hit rate.

Like Quintana, Smyly began his career in the AL Central and has also played in the AL East. At Rogers Centre, he’s gone 4-0 in six appearances (four starts) with a 1.63 ERA. It might not mean much, but Smyly is clearly comfortable on that mound.

Smyly has a mutual option for next season so if the Jays decide they don’t want him, they wouldn’t have to keep him past this year if they traded for him.

As is the case for all three of these guys, Smyly won’t cost very much at all to acquire and fits the mold of a back-end starter very well. Just give the offense a chance to win the game. It should work most of the time.