Four reasons the Blue Jays should forget about Juan Soto

When a young superstar is on the trade block, you have to kick the tires. For the Blue Jays, however, there are plenty of reasons to move on from the idea.

I’ll admit that it was just days ago that I wrote an article talking about how the Blue Jays should shoot their shot for the 23 year old phenom, and for the most part I still agree with the arguments I laid out. Chances like this don’t come around every day, and the timing lines up pretty well for a Blue Jays team that is firmly in a “win-now” mode.

Having said that, even by the end of that article I had already started to talk myself out of the idea, and over the last few days that feeling has grown. I’ve had time to consider it, but also to read the various takes and opinions from other Blue Jays writers, as well as rumours coming out from the many other teams that will be lining up to make a bid. It sounds like the Nationals are serious about shopping one of the best hitters in the world, who also isn’t even old enough to have hit his prime yet.

So why on earth am I having second thoughts about the Blue Jays making a trade for a player of this calibre? For every reason that the Jays have to check in, and even make a calculated bid, there are arguments against the idea as well. The more I considered them, the more that forgetting about the Soto sweepstakes made more sense to me.

Allow me to explain.

It doesn’t sound like an extension is possible

It’s not every day that a superstar hits the trade market, and it’s even more rare when they are still just 23 years old. That’s the case for Juan Soto, and naturally it makes a big difference in his value to any acquiring team.

The reason that the Nationals have reportedly decided to shop Soto is because he has turned down multiple extension offers from Washington, including the recent reports of a 15-year, 440 million dollar offer. It would make sense for the Nationals to lock him up for the long-term as the centre piece of their rebuild, but it’s understandable that they’re shopping him if he’s not planning to stick around.

Soto has 2.5 seasons before he’ll become an unrestricted free agent, and while his camp hasn’t come out and said they’ll refuse to sign an extension, the wording being used by his agent, Scott Boras, suggests that testing the open market is likely part of the plan. From Boras’ interview with “The Show: A NY Post Baseball Podcast”:

“… remember, you get Juan Soto for one, two, three postseasons runs and have complete control over him”

If that’s the case, you have to look at Soto as a rental, even if the possibility of an extension still exists. Granted, this is a player that will be available for three playoff runs for whatever team acquires him, and that makes some sense for the “win-now” Blue Jays. That said, I also feel like it significantly shortens their window of contention. Even if they could re-sign Soto, they likely won’t have the money to do the same with all of their young stars including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alek Manoah, Alejandro Kirk, and more. Making this kind of move would be about heavily betting on the next three seasons, never mind what the deal would do to the farm system.

It’s possible that Soto and Boras entertain an extension with a new team should he be traded, as they mentioned other factors like the possible sale of the Nationals, and the state of the rebuild in Washington as other reasons why the extension talks ultimately didn’t work out. However, at the end of the day I expect that Soto will be a free agent at the conclusion of the 2024 season regardless of where he ends up.

Is it worth it for the Blue Jays to potentially shrink their window of contention to three years? I’m not so sure.

What’s the price tag?

It’s been very interesting to read the various guesses about what it might cost to acquire a talent like Soto, especially with 2.5 years of guaranteed contract control. I feel like some articles I’ve read have been objective, and others are completely out to lunch, but there are all kinds of opinions to be found if you’re looking for them.

The thing is, Soto is pretty much an unprecedented case here because of his age and superstar talent. You just don’t see players like this becoming available (I know, I’ve said that a few times now), and that’s why we’re going to see 10 or more teams lining up to make a bid.

The other day I put together a proposed offer that looked like this:

Blue Jays get: 

Juan Soto

Nationals get: 

Teoscar Hernandez
Gabriel Moreno
Ricky Tiedemann
Jordan Groshans
Nate Pearson

Personally, I see this as a significant haul for the Blue Jays to give up, even if it’s understandable for a player like Soto. Hernandez is a two-time Silver Slugger award winner and is only 29 years old, Moreno is a top five prospect in all of baseball, Tiedemann just shot himself into most Top 100 lists, and so on. The Blue Jays could tweak the package of course, but my guess was that the “value” would be somewhere in this range.

However, as I read more speculation throughout the week, I saw Bo Bichette’s name mentioned fairly regularly as a player that would have to go back to Washington to make the value work. I’ve even read (and strongly disagree with) ideas that suggest that both Manoah and Bichette would have to be in the return package.

If the cost is more than what I’ve suggested above, which is already very substantial, then I’m personally not interested in seeing the Blue Jays go any further with their bid. I don’t want to see names like Bichette or Manoah involved, and truthfully, I’d be very surprised if the front office would go that far anyway.

Let’s not forget the bigger issue here

I’m aware that the Blue Jays could really use a left-handed bat, and there’s probably no one better than Juan Soto. In a fantasy baseball world, it’s the perfect fit. However, if I’m sitting in Ross Atkins’ seat right now my much, much bigger priority would be on improving the pitching staff.

Realistically I feel like the Blue Jays could use at least three fresh arms to give them a better shot at both qualifying for the playoffs, and making a deep postseason run. After losing Hyun Jin Ryu for the year to Tommy John surgery, and Yusei Kikuchi’s rollercoaster of a season that’s landed him on the IL with a “neck strain”, the rotation is very thin these days. Nate Pearson hasn’t provided the depth the Blue Jays were hoping for either, and the same could be said for others like Thomas Hatch and Anthony Kay (injury), who were projected to provide depth for this team. It’s hard to imagine where they’d be without Ross Stripling right now, and even if they don’t necessarily need another ace for the rotation, it wouldn’t hurt. Even if it’s more of a depth variety move, another starting pitcher has to be a priority for the front office.

Just as important, and arguably even more so, would be improving the bullpen. To be fair, they do have a group of reasonably solid relievers that includes Jordan Romano, Yimi Garcia, Tim Mayza, Adam Cimber, David Phelps, and more, but they really don’t have enough “swing and miss” in the mix. When it comes to the late innings, the Jays could really use a dynamic reliever or two that can pile up the strikeouts and keep the top hitters in baseball at bay. That’s going to be even more important if they hope to make a deep postseason run.

As much as I’d love to see the Blue Jays acquire three pitchers AND win the Juan Soto sweepstakes, I understand that their resources aren’t endless. A move to acquire Soto would go a long way toward gutting their minor league system, and they might not have the prospects required to get the pitching talent that they need even more. There might be a way to pull all of it off, but at that point I’d expect the Blue Jays’ farm system to drop to the bottom of MLB’s rankings.

There’s no doubt that the Blue Jays could use a boost right now, and it’s hard to imagine anyone better than Juan Soto to bring it, but I’m not sure that pushing all of their chips to the table for the 23 year old is ultimately the right move. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll celebrate if he somehow lands in Toronto, but for the four reasons I’ve mentioned and more, I think the Blue Jays should move on and focus on other areas of need. Of course, if the Yankees emerge as a true frontrunner for the 23 year old superstar, I’ll probably change my mind again.