Blue Jays: Three significant “shake it up” trade ideas

Trade #1- Nabbing a quality starter from the Marlins

The Blue Jays have several needs on their roster at the moment, and unfortunately one of them projected to be a strength of the team before the season began. Injuries and underperformance had a different plan however, as the Blue Jays lost Hyun Jin Ryu to Tommy John surgery, and Yusei Kikuchi struggled with fastball location to the point that the Jays had no choice but to look in another direction, with the southpaw landing on the Injured List as well. The rotation hasn’t been the kind of strength that we had hoped for.

On top of that, the Blue Jays have had injuries to other depth starters such as Nate Pearson and Anthony Kay, and the result has left them with a very thin depth chart. Max Castillo looks like he’ll get the ball against the Royals on Saturday, and his wasn’t a name that was even mentioned in Blue Jays circles before the season began.

If I’m Ross Atkins right now, I’m looking for a solution to pad the rotation, and in a perfect world I’d be trying to acquire a pitcher with multiple years of contract control. Ryu likely won’t pitch in the 2023 season either, and Stripling is a free agent at the end of the year, so the Blue Jays would do well to add a reliable piece alongside Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, and Jose Berrios.

Enter the Miami Marlins, who have an embarrassment of riches in their starting rotation. Sandy Alcantara has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, and Pablo Lopez might be the most underrated starter in the game. Trevor Rogers has had a disappointing 2022 campaign relative to his All-Star calibre 2021, but his future is bright regardless. On top of that the Marlins depth chart also includes high-upside young starters like Jesus Luzardo, Elieser Hernandez, Sixto Sanchez, and Max Meyer, who was just called up to the big leagues to make his debut.

While the Marlins are pretty stacked in their rotation, the same can’t be said for their catching ranks. Jacob Stalling is at the top of their depth chart at the moment, and they only have one catcher among their top 30 prospects according to MLB.com, and that’s Joe Rock, whose ETA is roughly 2025.

The Blue Jays could offer from an area of strength of their own, and perhaps there’s a fit here. I’m going to go a little drastic here right off the bat, but I truly believe the Blue Jays are at a point where they need to make a significant move.

Blue Jays get: 

Pablo Lopez

Marlins get: 

Danny Jansen
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

It seems like a big price for the Blue Jays to pay, but a quality arm like Lopez wouldn’t come cheap, if the Marlins even considered offers on him at all. The only reason I think they’d even consider it is because of the quality of what they’d get in return, the fact that Lopez will be a free agent after the 2024 season, and that he has two trips left through arbitration before he gets there.

Jansen is in a similar spot as far as his contract control is concerned, and while I’d truly hate to see the Blue Jays trade him, I can’t really imagine them moving either of Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno. He’d be a big upgrade on both sides of the ball for Miami, and he’d be around for at least a few seasons to work with their talented young pitching staff.

As for Gurriel Jr., this is a move I wouldn’t have made a year ago. That said, at that time we all believed he would be with the Blue Jays until at least the end of the 2024 season. Since we learned more about his contract last fall, he’s actually going to be eligible to test the open market at the end of next season. It would be a big blow to lose him, but Jansen alone wouldn’t be enough to convince the Marlins to move a top of the rotation arm like Lopez. Maybe the Blue Jays could try to expand the deal and include a veteran left-handed hitter like Garrett Cooper, but a Jansen/Gurriel Jr. for Lopez swap probably isn’t all that far off in terms of value.

Is this likely to happen? Probably not, but is it something the Blue Jays should be exploring? In my mind the fit makes too much sense not to at least make the phone call.

Another team with pitching depth

The old baseball adage, “you can never have too much pitching” pretty much always rings true, and that’s been the case for the Blue Jays so far in 2022. As I’ve already said, they have needs in the bullpen and in the rotation, so I thought I would stick with that theme.

Another team with very strong depth in their rotation is the San Diego Padres, and if I’m playing video game GM here, I could see a swap lining up that would work for both them and the Blue Jays. Here’s what I would propose:

Padres receive: 

Teoscar Hernandez

Blue Jays receive: 

Blake Snell

I know what you’re thinking, and I realize that Snell hasn’t been the same ace-level performer that many of us remember from his days with the Tampa Bay Rays. That doesn’t mean that he wouldn’t still offer an upgrade to the current Blue Jays rotation, and I probably don’t have to remind you that Hernandez has disappointed this year relative to the standard he set over the last two seasons.

This could also work for both sides as far as the contract commitment is concerned. Snell is a 29 year old that will be a free agent after the 2023 campaign who makes 13.1 million against the Padres payroll this year, and 16.6 million next year. Hernandez is also 29 years old, is making 10.65 million this season, and will likely see a similar raise and pay range to what Snell is slated to make, so they lined up pretty well that way.

This would leave the Padres with a rotation that includes Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger, and Mackenzie Gore. Admittedly there are names on that list that I’d rather see the Blue Jays pursue, but I’m not sure that’s very feasible for a Padres team that is looking to make the postseason this year and for the next several seasons. All three of Musgrove, Manaea, and Clevinger will be free agents after the 2022 season as well, so at least Snell comes with matching contract control to Hernandez.

Do I think this one is going to happen? I have to admit that it’s a pretty big long shot as well, and it would likely require the Blue Jays to look for another outfield bat to help make up for Hernandez’s loss. The Padres could use some better production from their corner outfielders, so I do think there’s a fit here, it’s just hard to say if either team would seriously consider it.

Building a big bullpen deal with the Royals

For a team as bad as the Kansas City Royals have been in 2022, they have some valuable bullpen pieces that the Blue Jays should be interested in.

As you may have heard, the Royals had to leave 10 (!) players at home this week for their trip to Canada for a four-game series with the Blue Jays. Thankfully, the long list didn’t include the names Scott Barlow, or Josh Staumont, who are a pair of right-handed relievers that the Blue Jays should absolutely be calling about right now. To be fair, we don’t know that for certain about Staumont with him being on the IL at the moment, but let’s assume he’d be an option for the Blue Jays for the moment.

It might be a pipe dream to wish for the Blue Jays to get both of the quality relievers, but this is all for fun here anyway, so I thought I’d put together the kind of offer I think it would take to get something done. The problem is that the match doesn’t work as well for the Royals as it did with the Padres and Marlins. The Royals don’t really need a catcher for their rebuild, and a corner outfielder like Hernandez or Gurriel Jr. doesn’t really work with their rebuild timeline either.

With that in mind, here’s what I’m picturing:

Blue Jays get: 

Scott Barlow
Josh Staumont

Royals get: 

Jordan Groshans
Otto Lopez
Spencer Horwitz
CJ Van Eyk

The Blue Jays would be giving up a fair bit of prospect capital here, but I would be more than happy to see them pull a trigger on a deal like this. Barlow has quietly put together one of the best seasons in the American League from a reliever, posting a 2.11 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 32 appearances while racking up 43 strikeouts and 16 saves in 18 chances. He’s the kind of swing and miss arm that the Jays really need in the back of the bullpen, and he’d take some pressure off of Jordan Romano. Barlow also has two more seasons of contract control after 2022, so his value would be increased because of that for sure.

As for Staumont, he’s been on the Injured List since he last appeared on June 21st, but he’s currently on a rehab assignment and close to a return to the big league club. This season the 28 year old has a 3.81 ERA and a 1.462 WHIP across 26.0 innings, but he’s been even better than that the over last two years and would definitely raise the floor of the bullpen in Toronto with or without Barlow. Staumont has three more seasons of arbitration eligibility after this one, so he’d be a tough one to pry away.

On the Blue Jays side of the deal, they’d be giving up their #4 and #5 prospects in Jordan Groshans and Otto Lopez. Groshans looks like he’ll ultimately end up at third base, and should be MLB ready sometime in the next year. The power in his bat hasn’t developed like many projected him for, but he’s still young enough to find that stroke and carries plenty of value as a Top 100 prospect at various times over the last couple of years. As for Lopez, he’s a toolsy player that can line up in the infield or the outfield, and could be ready to join the Royals’ big league roster right away.

To sweeten the package I’ve included CJ Van Eyk, a pitcher who ranks #8 on the Blue Jays top prospect list, but is also currently recovering from Tommy John surgery and likely won’t pitch again until the middle of next year, which obviously hurts his value a bit. That said, the former 2nd round pick is only 23 years old, and the Royals can afford to have some patience with him.

To round things out I have Spencer Horwitz, who is a name that’s emerged this season as a potential big league bat from the left side. Horwitz hit well enough in AA that he earned a promotion to Buffalo, and he’s carried on at a similar pace at the next level. He profiles best as a first baseman, and the Royals have some pretty solid prospect depth of their own at the cold corner, but he can also handle a corner outfield spot as well. It might require one more player, or perhaps swapping Van Eyk out for a healthy pitcher, but I believe the value is in the ballpark here anyway. Is this one feasible? Maybe, but the Blue Jays would also be at the mercy of the market, and plenty of teams will be looking for bullpen help.

The good news is that these three ideas I’ve just presented are far from the only way the Blue Jays could potentially improve their roster ahead of the August 2nd trade deadline. I’m not sure if the Jays would be willing to trade players like Hernandez or Gurriel Jr. either, but I do believe we’re reaching a point where the front office will consider something more drastic.

What would you do if you were in Ross Atkins’ shoes right now?