Toronto Blue Jays: Early Trade Deadline Preview

July trade deadline preview?

With three wild card teams per league from this season, there may be fewer teams willing to sell; and, more teams driving up prices for trades as buyers before the August 2nd trade deadline this year, pushed back from July-end due to the delayed Opening Day.

Looking at the current standings, there are likely 12 teams far enough out of the wild card chase who could be potential sellers by the deadline. Other teams like the Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies could go either way depending on how they play over the next six-plus weeks. This means there are at least 15 – and potentially 18 – teams in a position to be buyers by August.

The laws of supply and demand state that this will drive up acquisition costs for a smaller pool of available players for those teams looking to add by the deadline. In other words, it’s pretty slim pickings given so many teams still have wildcard aspirations… which will drive up the asking price for those slim pickings?

After losing Ryu to season-ending surgery, and recent bullpen wobbles, who might the Blue Jays acquire for starting pitching and relief depth?

The Jays have assets they could move in trades, with the emergence of top prospect Gabriel Moreno creating a logjam of RHH catchers alongside Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen. They have additional top 100 prospects in 3B/SS Jordan Groshans, SS/3B Orelvis Martinez and LHP Ricky Tiedemann.  Or could they look to reshape the big league roster with a blockbuster trade for a LHH power bat like OF Juan Soto, with a package built around one each of Lourdes Gurriel Jr./Teoscar Hernandez and Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk plus prospects?

With that in mind, who might the Blue Jays target as trade deadline additions?

Starting Pitchers

Should Philadelphia fall from their current 2.5 games back in the NL Wild Card standings, Phillies ace Aaron Nola, 29, could be a rental (with a $16 million team option for 2023). The 6’2” righty has made 14 starts in 2022, pitching to a 2.95 FIP, 3.11 ERA and NL-leading 0.87 WHIP over 89.2 innings, with 99 strikeouts against only 11 walks.  Recall that the Blue Jays actually drafted him back in the 22nd round of the 2011 MLB June Amateur Draft from Catholic HS in Baton Rouge, LA, although they were unable to sign him as he opted instead to attend Louisiana State University.

Jays Journal contributor Henry Wright wrote recently, that Oakland A’s and Cincinnati Reds starters Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo will also both be free agents in 2024.

Other pending free agent starters who might be available as rentals – depending on what happens to the Angels over the next month plus – are former Jay farmhand Noah Syndergaard (29 years old, 10 starts, 51 innings pitched with a 3.73 FIP and 3.53 ERA, was part of the R.A. Dickey trade in December 2012), as well as Michael Lorenzen (30 years old, 11 starts, 65 innings pitched with a 3.94 FIP and 4.15 ERA).

Or, could the Blue Jays use some of their remaining financial flexibility under the competitive balance (“luxury”) tax threshold, and look to take on the bad contract of Washington starter Patrick Corbin as part of a larger blockbuster trade for LHH OF Juan Soto?

Soon-to-be 33-year-old Corbin hasn’t pitched very well since the Nats’ World Series championship season in 2019 and has approximately $72 million still owed on his contract through his age 35-year season in 2024. He does, however, have World Series pitching experience with a 3.60 ERA in 10 innings pitched in the 2019 series. He’s made 14 starts so far in 2022, pitching to a 4.85 FIP and 6.59 ERA in 69.2 innings. Perhaps Jays’ pitching coach Pete Walker could work some magic on Corbin and get that 1.78 WHIP on  97 hits allowed down?

The Jays have approximately $39 million of salary room left below the current $230 million luxury tax threshold in 2022, and could free up another $12.6 million by trading both Teoscar Hernandez and Danny Jansen as the major league components in a larger package for Soto, Corbin and maybe switch-hitting pending free agent Josh Bell? The Hyun-Jin Ryu and Randal Grichuk contracts will drop off after 2023, freeing up another $24.3 million. With Corbin’s $35.4 million in 2024 falling off, they’d then have more room to extend Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alek Manoah to longer-term contracts?

Relievers

The Blue Jays bullpen now ranks 21st in the majors on ERA at 4.21, with the 23rd ranked FIP at 4.18. Their 11 blown saves and 13 bullpen losses also rank them in the bottom third in baseball. With Stripling now a starter, and Kikuchi averaging less than 4 1/3 innings per start, the risk of taxing the bullpen increases as MLB rosters are only allowed 13 pitchers from today.

In terms of reliever depth options, Tigers Michael Fulmer and Andrew Chafin, as well as Rockies reliever Alex Colomé are potential short-term rentals as pending free agents.

A former starter and 2016 Rookie of the Year, the right-handed Fulmer, 29, is having an outstanding season as a reliever on a bad Tigers team, with a 3.10 FIP and 2.16 ERA, two wins, 10 holds and a save over 25 innings.  Along with lefty Andrew Chafin (32 years old, 24 K’s in 17.1 innings, with 8 holds and a save), he’s been setting up Tigers closer Gregory Soto.

Righty Colomé is on a $4.1 million, one-year deal with Colorado, and has two wins, four holds and three saves in four opportunities this season, with a 2.86 FIP and 2.13 ERA over 25.1 innings, including a 1.88 ERA over 14.1 innings at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Or could 36-year-old pending free agent Steve Cishek from the Nationals be part of that blockbuster trade idea above?

Along the same lines, could the Blue Jays pry their former top prospect Jeff Hoffman or Luis Cessa from the Reds as pieces in a blockbuster trade for starter Luis Castillo? Hoffman, 29, has been a pleasant surprise for the Reds this year, with a 2.78 ERA and 34 K’s in 32.1 innings, including a win and a hold.

Or could the Jays front office swing a bigger deal with their former colleague Ben Cherington for Pirates righty closer David Bednar to be a set-up man for Jordan Romano. Bednar is under team control until 2027, so that would likely be an expensive acquisition. But Bednar has been outstanding on a bad Pirates team, winning three games and saving 11 more, with a 1.34 ERA over 33.2 innings, with 46 K’s versus only 8 walks. And the Pirates definitely need catching help.

LHH power bat options

The Jays feature a mostly RHH lineup, with the only current left-handed bats on the roster being Cavan Biggio, Raimel Tapia, and Bradley Zimmer. Those three have combined for only three home runs, and all have a below-league-average OPS+. Until Sunday’s improbable come-from-behind win against the Yankees bullpen, tough right-handed relievers have been able to shut down the Jays’ bats late in games. They don’t have to change their pitching approach from batter to batter because they mostly only face right-handed hitters.  A power LHH bat might help with that?

So who might be available?

As discussed above, would one each of Hernandez/Gurriel Jr., and Jansen/Kirk be a starting point for a conversation as part of a blockbuster trade package for Juan Soto? Adding in pending free agent switch-hitter Josh Bell would also bring much-needed balance (and LHH power) to the batting order, and you’d have a new ‘core four’ of Soto, Vlad Jr., Bichette and Manoah, all aged 23-24.

Jesse Winkler and Adam Frazier of the Seattle Mariners might also be of interest. Winkler, 28, had a breakout season in 2021 in Cincinnati, and won’t be a free agent eligible until 2024. He has struggled in his first year in Seattle after being traded in March but has a left-handed power bat while being able to hit for average through his career, averaging 24 HRs and 73 RBI with a .277/.376/.473/.849 slash line with a 123 OPS+ per 162 games.

https://twitter.com/mariners/status/1533200907852165120?s=21&t=l_siJrsPFsv6Sb2r3m5N6Q

The Blue Jays front office has checked in on Adam Frazier before. The 30-year-old pending free agent has struggled this season with Seattle but has a career slash line of .276/.339/.401/.741 which might prove useful as a lefty bat off the bench in the postseason.

What do you think Jays fans?  Given the Blue Jays are in “playoffs or bust” mode, with deep postseason aspirations, should the front office be making some moves for a starter, relief depth and a LHH power bat ahead of the August 2nd trade deadline?  Recall that both Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards were added in late June and early July, respectively, last year, so the trade window is almost upon us. It should be an interesting six weeks leading up to the deadline.