Blue Jays: WAR update at the quarter-mark of the season

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The Toronto Blue Jays have officially played just over one-quarter of their scheduled regular-season games so far this season.

It’s a good time to check in on how the team is doing and also to take a look at some individual statistics, both traditional and modern.

Here’s a look at the WAR stats (using Baseball Reference) for some of the team’s key members and how they project throughout the full season.

Blue Jays: WAR update – Infield

Santiago Espinal (1.5) was expected to be a key contributor this season but still in a utility-type of role. It took him about two weeks to soar past those expectations, and he’s still flying high above them.

Not only has Espinal established himself as an everyday player, but it’s also reasonable to say he’s been their most consistent performer. He’s in the midst of a 15-game hitting streak and his 13 doubles are a team-high. The fact that he’s on pace for a 6+ WAR season is a testament to the hard work and dedication to improving “Santi” has shown from day one.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (WAR 0.9) hasn’t had the same success as he enjoyed last year, and, as expected, it’s reflected in the numbers. He’s hitting just .235 with one home run over 68 at-bats in May.

Whether it’s the “dead ball”, shorter camp, the weather still warming up, or the league catching up to him, Guerrero Jr. just hasn’t had the same sting in his bat in 2022. Still, him having a season hitting in the .280-.300 range with 30+ homers and 90 RBI and a WAR in the 4-5 range is achievable and wouldn’t be that much of a drop-off.

Bo Bichette (0.4) was, stunningly, mired in the negative portion of the WAR stat for much of the first month of the season. The month of May has represented a shift in Bo’s production.

Bichette is hitting .280 with four homers and 13 RBI for the month. He’s also looked sharper in the field. Although his six errors suggest he’s on pace to match last year’s total of 24, only two have come in May.

Matt Chapman (0.3) has come as advertised as far as his ability to be a defensive anchor at third base is concerned. His offensive numbers haven’t been great but there’s hope that they could improve with better luck. His BAbip is only .222, far below the major-league average of .295.

TORONTO, ON – MAY 20: George Springer #4 of the Toronto Blue Jays hits an RBI single in the fifth inning during an MLB game against the Cincinnati Reds at Rogers Centre on May 20, 2022, in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) /

Catchers

Despite playing in less than a dozen games, Danny Jansen has already accumulated a decent WAR (0.4) while showing off a power stroke (three HRs). His return to the lineup is a welcome one as he seems to get the best out of veteran starter Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Alejandro Kirk (0.7) has shown a lot of growth this season and his timing has been perfect. Jansen’s injury meant Kirk had to catch more often than expected. He’s responded well, and is known as an elite pitch-framer, has thrown out a third of would-be base-stealers (5/15), and has more walks than strikeouts. Zack Collins (0.1) has also found some success as a DH and backup catcher when Jansen was on the IL but currently finds himself below the Mendoza line at .194.

The Toronto Blue Jays have officially played just over one-quarter of their scheduled regular-season games so far this season.

Outfield

George Springer (1.3) has been able to stay on the field and he’s delivered the kind of numbers Jays fans expected when he signed with the team before last season. He’s tied for the team lead in homers (seven) and RBI (22) while making a series of highlight-reel level catches in centrefield.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.(0.0) and Teoscar Hernandez (0.1) have both been key contributors over the past few years, but neither one has been able to get on track this season.

Injuries have meant that Raimel Tapia has seen more playing time than initially anticipated. He hasn’t exactly taken advantage of that opportunity (WAR -0.5) although the WAR stat has never been kind to Tapia. His career WAR is 0.0. with a career-high of 1.0 in 2021. His lack of power and below-average defensive rating hasn’t helped although he’s been primarily serviceable.

Used mostly in a bench capacity as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement, Bradley Zimmer sports a -0.2 WAR.

TORONTO, ON – MAY 17: Jose Berrios #17 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches in the first inning of their MLB game against the Seattle Mariners at Rogers Centre on May 17, 2022, in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images) /

Starters

Alek Manoah (1.8) is right there with Gausman as far as Cy Young consideration is concerned and he has the highest WAR on the team. He’s gone at least five innings in all eight of his starts and six or more in seven of those. His frustration after not being allowed to finish off his eight-inning gem on Saturday showed his intensely competitive nature.

Kevin Gausman (1.2) has been one of the best free-agent signings by any team this past offseason and is among the early favourites to capture the AL CY Young Award. His splitter is one of the hardest pitches to hit in the game, and he’s piled on the strikeouts (57) while walking just three batters.

Signed to a three-year deal this past offseason, Yusei Kikuchi (0.2) took a little while to get going but has been very stingy giving up hits and runs lately. He’s given up just eight hits and five earned runs in four May starts, earning his first two wins.

Jose Berrios (-0.1) has been mostly pretty good this season. However, he’s had two poor outings and is still recovering statistically. He is coming off his best effort of the season, a seven-inning, no-run dandy against Seattle on May 17th.

After spending a couple weeks on the IL and a few rough starts under his belt, Hyun Jin Ryu currently stands at -0.3 WAR but his last two starts have been encouraging.

Bullpen

It’s difficult for relief pitchers to accumulate a high WAR due to the lower amount of innings pitched. For example, Jordan Romano, for as great a season as he had last year, sported a WAR of 2.3. This year, so far, he’s sitting at 0.4.

Tim Mayza has reached the same level and the Jays eagerly await his return from the IL. Adam Cimber (0.3) is right behind them, despite recording four pitcher wins already. Trevor Richards is looking to climb out of the negative WAR (-0.3) he currently finds himself in. He’s surrendered nine earned runs and five homers over his 17.2 IP.

David Phelps (0.3) has emerged as a high-leverage option, as has Yimi Garcia (-0.2) despite some shaky results recently.

Blue Jays will miss Steven Matz when they face the Cardinals this week. dark. Next

WAR is a stat that takes patience, one that measures performance throughout a full season, making it kind of perfect for the marathon that is a baseball season. Just because a player is off to a hot or cold start, doesn’t mean it’ll last, but it is a good time for a check-in.

See you at the halfway mark.

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The Toronto Blue Jays have officially played just over one-quarter of their scheduled regular-season games so far this season.

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