Blue Jays and Matt Chapman: The good, bad, and the promising

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May 1, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman (26) runs onto the field before the start against the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports /

While Matt Chapman has struggled at the plate like many of his Blue Jays teammates, he’s brought a new dimension to their infield defence with his incredible glove work.

That’s more or less what the Blue Jays knew they were getting when they traded for Chapman prior to the start of the 2022 campaign. What they had hoped was that Chapman, with a full season in the rearview after hip surgery, could get back to hitting like the player that finished 6th in AL MVP voting in 2019 prior to his injury. Still jury 29 years old, it’s a bet that I’m a fan of, and even after a less than inspiring start at the plate, I still believe the trade the Jays made with Oakland will pay off.

Speaking of that trade, the Jays pivoted from their long-rumoured pursuit of Jose Ramirez and struck a deal with the A’s that would bring Chapman to Toronto and send Kevin Smith, Gunnar Hoglund, Kirby Snead, and Zach Logue to Oakland to help kickstart their rebuild. The A’s also traded fellow star Matt Olson to Atlanta, among other moves they made over the disjointed offseason.

The three-time Gold Glove winner also had some appeal because of his contract situation, as he won’t be a free agent until after the 2023 season, and they already locked him up for two years and 25 million to avoid the arbitration process over that period. The Blue Jays saw more than just a potential bounce-back candidate when they acquired Chapman, and in some ways he’s already proven them to be correct even if his numbers at the plate haven’t been very good so far.

There has been some good, some bad, and still plenty of reasons that this trade could look much better by the time this season is over. Let’s have a look at the good, the bad, and the promising.

May 4, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman (26) celebrates a win over the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /

The Good

I’ll get to talking about Chapman’s offence later, but if we’re going to focus on the good for a moment, then we’ve gotta start with the difference he’s making at third base.

The Blue Jays have had some decent third baseman over the years, and they had some legitimate stability there last season once Santiago Espinal took over more regular duties at the position.’ However, I can’t remember a time when any player has made a ground ball feel like an automatic out. Chapman is on another level at the hot corner, both with his ridiculously strong throwing arm, and the sheer range that he covers at the position.

There have already been several times that Chapman’s defensive impact has changed the game, including their narrow win against the Yankees on May 4th, and even last night with his heads up 5-4 double play against the Rays. It doesn’t even take a deep dive fancy stats, you just have to watch the difference he makes on the infield, and it doesn’t take a trained scout either to see that he more than passes the eye test.

It hasn’t translated as much as I’d like to see when it comes to Bo Bichette’s defensive play, but there’s no doubt that Chapman is having a positive influence on him as well, and that will continue for as long as the pair are teammates. Playing right next to an elite defender pushes you to be better, especially when you’re as competitive as young Bichette.

Infield defence hasn’t necessarily been a strength for the Blue Jays over the last few years, but having Matt Chapman around definitely changes things, especially with Santiago Espinal at second base as well. He may not end up being a middle-of-the-order type of slugger again in his career, but he doesn’t have to be in order to drastically change a game, and the Blue Jays’ fortunes.

TORONTO, ON – MAY 02: Matt Chapman #26 of the Toronto Blue Jays strikes out swinging in the sixth inning of their MLB game against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre on May 2, 2022 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images) /

The Bad

As good as Chapman’s defence has been thus far, he’s been struggling at the plate over the first 34 games of the season.

Heading into Saturday’s match-up with the Rays, Chapman was slashing .193/.268/.368 with five home runs, five doubles, and 15 RBI. In an individual way, Chapman has been lucky that his fellow teammates have been struggling at the plate as well, but of course that hasn’t translated to team success over their latest losing streak.

He’s been particularly struggling lately, as he’s hitting just .146/.250/.314 over his last 15 games that cover 48 at-bats, and just .087/.185/.130 with nine strikeouts across 23 at-bats over his last seven games, and he ended up going 0-4 on Saturday as well. To be fair, he’s had some tough luck recently, as he hit the ball very hard several times last night, there was Randy Arozarena’s diving catch that took a hit away from him on Friday, and a deep fly ball that died on the warning track in New York.

Still, the Blue Jays are going to need a lot more from the 29 year old when it comes to offence, even if they don’t expect him to be the star of the lineup. As the number six or seven hitter, they can live with a lower batting average scenario as long as he’s producing some power numbers at the same time, and contributing with his trademark Gold Glove calibre defence. On Saturday they moved him up to the leadoff spot, and while I don’t expect that to last any longer than George Springer’s absence, maybe it’ll help get Chapman’s bat going a bit.

I’m confident that he is going to be fine as the season progresses, but there’s no denying that Chapman has struggled at the plate to start the year. Here’s hoping that changes for him, and for several of his teammates in the not so distant future.

May 2, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman (26) hits an RBI single during the fourth inning against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports /

The Promising

Since we’ve talked about the good and the bad, the logical place to wrap this up would be with answering the question, “what’s next?”. While I don’t have a crystal ball at all, I’d like to offer a glass half-full perspective when it comes to Chapman’s future.

I’m so confident in his defence that I don’t even feel it’s worth discussing any further, so let’s focus on his struggles at the plate. While the box score numbers aren’t looking so good these days, a closer look at his Statcast numbers offers a more encouraging picture.

He needs to make contact a lot more often, but a lot of Matt Chapman's numbers are pretty encouraging when he does. #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/aWi5Xy7nG9
— Chris Henderson (@Baseball4Brains) May 14, 2022

While his K% and Whiff % are truly ugly compared to his peers, there are some positive signs we can point to. When he does make contact he’s hitting the ball with authority, sitting in the 89th percentile for Average Exit Velocity, and 91st in Hard Hit %. It makes sense, especially given his strikeout percentage recently, but it is encouraging that he’s squaring up the ball this well when he does make contact, and his Barrel % ranking of 65th is a good sign as well.

Does this mean that Chapman is going to improve as the season goes on? It’s hard to say, but I feel like there are two quick things we can take away from looking at these numbers. First, if he’s going to contribute at an elite level, he’s gotta find a way to shrink the strikeout numbers, even just a bit. Statcast also shows that his expected numbers are better than what’s taken place in reality, and that should correct itself more as the season goes on.

Next. New details about the Jays' pursuit of Brett Gardiner. dark

Things haven’t been pretty at the plate lately for Chapman or his Blue Jays teammates, but I truly believe there is too much talent for this recent cold stretch to last for the team, or their third baseman.

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The Good

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