Four keys to the Blue Jays reaching another level in May

Improved Health

Since I’ve already mentioned it, I thought I’d start by pointing out just how important some of the players they’ve been missing are.

Teoscar Hernandez is the biggest example here, and I really believe that he’s still among the most underrated hitters in baseball despite being a two-time Silver Slugger award winner. He might not carry the same star power that Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, or George Springer have attached to them, but I would argue that he’s every bit as important to the team’s success.

As the broadcast crew pointed out several times as he returned against the Guardians, Hernandez is going to need a few days to get back in the rhythm of big league baseball. That didn’t take him long last season when he returned from the IL, and I don’t expect it’ll be long before we see him launching baseballs over the fence again. When he does, the Blue Jays really start to meet their potential, especially because it just makes their lineup ridiculously long.

The same could be said for Danny Jansen, although to a much lesser extent. That said, Jansen has really started to hit the ball well since late last season, and he adds yet another threat to the Blue Jays lineup when he’s healthy. He’ll also push Alejandro Kirk to be at his very best, and lately the young receiver has done an excellent job of covering the bulk of the starting duties.

As for Ryu, it’s hard to say what the Blue Jays will get from the southpaw when he makes his return. At his best he has the ability to pitch like a #2 starter or even better, but unfortunately we haven’t seen a lot of the best of Ryu since the All-Star break in 2021. If he can rediscover his form, his healthy arm makes the Blue Jays rotation one of the deeper groups in baseball.

No way Jose won’t improve

I could point to several individuals on this team and talk about how I expect an improved performance over what we’ve seen so far this season, but Jose Berrios stands out in particular to me.

It hasn’t been all bad for Berrios, as he’s been reasonably effective or better in four of his six starts, and then has had two really rough outings, including an Opening Day clunker that saw him fail to escape the first inning. In all the 28 year old has a 5.34 ERA and a 1.640 WHIP over his first 28.2 innings, and it’s arguably looked even worse next to the All-Star level performances of his rotation mates in Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah.

Having said all of that, Berrios is too talented of a starter to not figure this out, and we’ve already seen plenty of flashes of what he can do. Over the course of his seven-year big league career he has a 4.08 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP, and he’s trended lower than that as he’s hit his prime years.

The Blue Jays bet on him being a frontline starter when they handed him a seven-year, 131 million dollar extension over the offseason, and I’m not the least bit worried about that contract because of a pair of rocky starts to begin the year. I fully expect Berrios to be the kind of frontline starter that the Jays expected, and for the former Twin to join Gausman and Manoah to make a very formidable threesome at the top of the rotation.

Berrios is just one of several Blue Jays who haven’t quite found their form thus far, but to me he’s one of the easiest to see righting the ship in the not so distant future.

A more favourable schedule

The Blue Jays weren’t dealt a very nice hand as far as the schedule was drawn up to start the year, but fortunately things will ease off a bit for them in May, and into early June.

The most important part might be the chance for rest on some badly needed off days. The Jays had a rest day on Monday, another coming on Thursday, and three more on the 19th, 25th, and 30th, never having to play more than six straight days throughout the month. That’s a stark contract from the gauntlet they’ve been through so far, and fresh legs will do wonders for any team, even one as youthful as the Blue Jays.

It will also give Charlie Montoyo a chance to play his regulars without worrying about scheduled rest as much, and that could make a pretty big difference, especially as the lineup gets healthier. More at-bats for guys like Teoscar Hernandez and eventually Danny Jansen means less for Brad Zimmer and Tyler Heineman, and that’s a significant difference.

On top of the rest, the Blue Jays do have a slightly easier schedule, even if it’s no Sunday picnic either. Beginning on the 10th they’ll have two games with the Yankees, three with the Rays, and then a six-game home stand when they’ll host the Mariners, and the 6-23 Reds. They’ll round things out on the road against the Cardinals and the Angels, before heading back to Toronto host the White Sox and start a fresh month.

Ideally the Blue Jays will be able to pull themselves out of the funk in short order, especially because their next five games come against division rivals in the Yankees and Rays. Either way though, May should be a bit easier on them, at least compared to the jam-packed opening month.

Hitting with runners in scoring position

We can blame the injuries, the tough schedule, or whatever else we want for the Blue Jays not reaching their full potential over the first 30 games, but there’s one thing that stands out more than anything else to me.

This team just can’t hit with runners in scoring position

On the season they’re slashing a putrid .187/.267/.307 with runners on scoring position, which is dead last in the American League. When you look at that statistic, it’s amazing that they’re above .500. They’re in the middle of the pack in the AL at .231/.301/.373 with runners on base in general, but so far there has been a team-wide freeze when they’re getting close to putting more runs on the board.

While it’s an issue that the Blue Jays should be aware of, and even actively working on, I’m guessing it’s a problem that will mostly take care of itself over time. This team has way too many good to great hitters on the roster to keep floundering like that all season long. They were projected to have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball before the season began, and even if they don’t end up living up to that billing, there’s no way they’ll live in the basement of the American League.

It’s been a strange problem to see the Blue Jays struggle to score runs early in the year, and thankfully the pitching staff has been even better than we expected, at least as a whole. That said, it won’t take a huge correction in their performance with runners in scoring position to make a huge difference, and a few extra runs here and there will earn additional victories.

With all of that said, the Blue Jays have been a fun team to watch so far this season, and I can’t imagine the excitement that’s going to build once they start firing on all cylinders. I don’t think it’s that far away, and with a few things going their way in the coming weeks, I expect we’ll soon be talking about how unstoppable they look again rather than worrying about a 17-13 start.