Toronto Blue Jays: Comparing the 2016 Rotation to Now

Heading in last year, there was no doubt the Toronto Blue Jays were going to score runs. Even with George Springer missing half the season, the Jays were still among the league leaders in run scored. What held them back was pitching.

The team was fortunate that Ryu and Matz hit the ground running, but trotting out Tanner Roark, T.J. Zuech and Ross Stripling in April and May definitely didn’t do the club any favours. Looking forward to the 2022 regular season, that narrative has changed. The Blue Jays are bringing in five proven major league arms, essentially for the first time since 2016 with four All-Stars and a promising rookie who will make up the Jays rotation for 2022. This group comprised of Ryu, Jose Berrios, Alek Manoah, and newcomers Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi should provide stability and quality starts all year round. This season’s rotation ranks among the best in the franchise’s recent memory, and reminds me greatly of 2016’s starting five.

The 2016 Blue Jays were a polarizing group for sure. They brought back the same core as the previous year, minus David Price. For the most post they underperformed, but were boosted by a great collective year from their rotation. Lead by a 25 year old Marcus Stroman, this mix of both veterans and young pitchers lead the American League in team ERA. The rotation included the aforementioned Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, R.A. Dickey, and Francisco Liriano.

The Blue Jays have a top rotation in baseball. This hasn’t been the case since 2016. Let’s see how 2016 and 2022 compared to each other.

The similarities even show themselves in general roles as well. There are many comps in terms of what pitchers have to offer. Both rotations include a workhorse, a crafty lefty, veteran presence, and more of that nature. A capable and reliable rotation paired with a top-tier offence will make for quite the season. For reference, let’s see how just closely they compare.

Marcus Stroman and Jose Berrios

Both of these guys meet today’s definition of a workhorse. The days of pitchers throwing north of 250 innings in one season are long gone, so anywhere around 200 nowadays is a big deal. Both Stroman and Berrios are pitchers you can book will be around that mark at seasons end. This number is an indicator of both good performance and durability. The 2016 campaign saw Stroman pitch a total of 204 innings, a year removed from a torn ACL while Berrios pitched 192 innings last year, and has averaged 196 innings per year.

The way they attack hitters shows similarities as well. Both make an effort to force weak contact from their opponents. Baseball Savant shows that both pitchers utilize a sinker as a large part of their arsenal. Back in 2016, Stroman threw his sinker 44.1% of the time, compared to a 17% in his second used pitch (his cutter). Berrios essentially has two primary pitches, those being the curveball and sinker. Both take up about 30% of his total pitch usage.

What this pitch does is contribute to positive groundball rates. It’s no secret that hitting the ball on the ground is taboo in this age of baseball. Thus, pitchers who force this result of contact are valuable. Stroman’s groundball percentage during the 2016 season sat at 61.6%. Looking at his full seasons pitched, this was his third best career mark. While Berrios didn’t produce groundballs with the same consistency, 2021 was still the best mark of his career in that category, sitting at 43.7%. This difference isn’t necessarily alarming, considering Berrios’s increased ability to get strikeouts. Berrios sat in the 66th percentile in K%, opposed to Stroman’s place in the 35th percentile.

While these two pitchers may have differences in the way the present themselves, their on field results bare comparisons. Their athleticism, consistency, and repertoire all match up.

Aaron Sanchez and Kevin Gausman

This comparison is a bit more of a reach, but I can make something work. Aaron Sanchez was actually Kevin Gausman’s teammate for parts of 2021. Sanchez began the year in the Giants’ rotation and made seven starts before injuries crept their way back. Gausman was the opposite, as he made 33 starts (tied for the league lead) and threw a total of 192 innings. Sanchez may be a bit of a wild card in today’s MLB, but back in 2016, he was nothing if not consistent.

Sanchez went at least 6 innings in 25 of his 30 starts during his All-Star 2016 season. This mark of consistency and reliably is heavily desirable in a number two guy. Unfortunately, it’s a quality Sanchez only had for one season. Injuries would catch up to him, and his 192 innings pitched that season remains a career high.

Gausman fits the bill for consistency as well. While their repertoires vary to a degree, the recent signee’s ability to stay on the field and produce matches that of 2016 Aaron Sanchez. Being six years into the future, managers have become more conservative with their starting pitchers innings limits. Looking at 2021, Gausman did not quite make as many six inning starts as Sanchez. However, if you look at his starts of at least five innings, you’ll find more encouraging results. Only six of his 33 starts didn’t reach the five inning mark.

While Sanchez and Gausman doesn’t fit the same bill looking at how they attack hitters, they both represent a dependable second starter in a capable Major League rotation.

J.A. Happ and Hyun Jin Ryu

These two guys share similarities on many levels. On one hand, they’re both crafty, veteran lefties in the middle of the rotation. They also stay around the strike zone, as well as using a variety of pitches. Moving past the eye test, there remains similarities on a statistical level as well.

Baseball Savant, one of my favourite websites of all time, will show that both Happ and Ryu are fairly underwhelming on their peripherals. By this, I mean that they’re not exactly good at limiting hard contact, spinning the ball, throwing that hard, or other aspects of that nature. The single percentile where they excel is BB%. Back in 2016, Happ ranked in the 67th percentile in that area, while Ryu sat in the high 91st percentile. Both pitchers threw strikes, limiting baserunners via base on balls, which is a valuable trait from a middle of the rotation arm.

In addition to the in depth statistics, the basic ‘per nine’ stats are similar between the two. Ryu’s career lines align with Happ’s 2016. Both have a K/9 in the 7-8 range, a HR/9 around 1, and a lowly BB/9 of around 2-3 between the 2.

As a last comparison, both were/are slinging it into their mid 30s. If you’re looking at WAR, J.A. Happ had the best season of his career as a 33 year old in 2016. His 4.5 WAR total was good enough for sixth in Cy Young voting that season. Ryu comes into 2022 as a 35 year old, celebrating his birthday in the middle of Spring Training. The South Korea native posted a 4.8 WAR as recently as 2019 as a Dodger. Ryu burst onto the scene in the shortened 2020 season and pitched just as well, if not better, as a 33 year old. The lefty did take a step back last year, but having shown a ton of success in the past, there’s no reason why Ryu can’t get back to his old form into his veteran years.

Francisco Liriano/R.A. Dickey and Yusei Kikuchi

In most cases, it’s not a given that a number five starter in a MLB rotation is an established, big league guy. The Toronto Blue Jays, in both 2016 and now, had the luxury of an established fifth starter. Back in 2016, R.A. Dickey began the year as that guy, with Liriano coming mid-way through the season in a trade from Pittsburgh. Nowadays, newly signed free agent, Yusei Kikuchi, has that honour.

The fifth spot in a rotation is typically a “take what you can get” situation. You don’t expect a win or deep start every time out like an ace, and you don’t expect the consistency of a mid-rotation arm. The fifth start is capable of surprising, and that’s what happened in 2016, and that’s what I anticipate for 2022.

R.A. Dickey was the definition of this in 2016. In the second last season of his MLB career, he had an up and down season. He fell short of 200 innings for the first time in his career since 2011, and his FIP was inflated at a mark of 5.03. In typical knuckleball fashion however, he had stretches of dominance. After going into May with an ERA north of 6, he went on a run in May, with his ERA from May 2nd to June 3rd being 2.74. Unfortunately, inconsistency crept it’s way back in. By mid July his ERA was in the mid fours, and it was clear help was needed.

Liriano was brought in and provided some swing and miss, which was something this rotation didn’t have a lot of. Through 10 appearances as a Jay in 2016, 8 of them starts he had a 2.92 ERA and a K/9 of 9.5. With this variability listed, now we examine Kikuchi.

Kikuchi is a conundrum to analyze, but it’s obvious he has the potential to be a front-line guy. Despite being an All-Star last year, he had an ERA of 4.41 in 2021. Since arriving in North America from Japan, he’s increased his average fastball velocity from 91 to 95 miles per hour. In addition to his fastball, he uses his cutter with regularity, which might be his best pitch. It possesses a -4 run value, opposed to his fast ball with a flat zero.

The new Blue Jays inconsistencies are made evident by his pitching log from last season. After a dominant start in Buffalo on Canada Day against our Jays, his ERA sat at 3.18. Since that day, the gradual increase in that number began. It inflated more than a point during the second half. The Blue Jays have faith they can find that guy who pitched in the first half, and having him as the fifth start would no doubt be a steal.

Fifth starters typically offer variability, and a stellar outing from time to time. The pitchers from 2016 and 2022 definitely fit this bill.