Blue Jays: Additions, losses, and breakout candidates for AL East rivals

The Baltimore Orioles

Biggest Loss: Pedro Severino

This section is a little bit tough for the Orioles since their shortage of good players makes it tough for them to have any sort of “big loss”. That being said, they did lose Pedro Severino to the Brewers in free agency, who had been their starting catcher for most of the last three seasons. Over that time, Severino posted a 91 OPS+, which is actually above average for catchers, with the league average being 90. He was also a solid presence behind the plate, providing above replacement level defence with a 1.2 dWAR. Despite all that, I imagine they’re not too concerned about who will be starting at catcher, thanks to the player I have as my breakout candidate.

Biggest Addition: Jordan Lyles

Considering their league-lowest payroll of just over 30 million, it’s no surprise that the Orioles weren’t big spenders in free agency. Because of this, their biggest signing of the offseason may have been the most underwhelming of any team in baseball. Starting pitcher, Jordan Lyles, is coming off a season in which he was in serious contention for worst pitcher in baseball. His 5.15 ERA was the third-worst among all qualified pitchers in MLB, and he led the American League in both earned runs and home runs allowed. The Orioles, however, have little to no starting pitching depth, so they gave Lyles a one-year, seven million dollar deal in the hopes that he can provide them some innings. This may seem like a bad choice for this category, but the reality is that the Orioles have no plans on competing for anything other than last place in 2022, so the options were pretty limited.

Breakout Candidate: Adley Rutschman

Finally, if you’re an Orioles fan, something to be excited about. The 2019 first overall draft pick, and consensus top two prospect in baseball, Adley Rutschman, is finally set to make his major league debut at some point in 2022. The switch-hitting catcher absolutely tore up the minors in 2021, posting a .899 OPS in 452 at-bats in both AA and AAA. With that, he also brings with him some well above average defence, and raving reviews from every team he’s played on. Depending on who you ask, either him or Royals shortstop, Bobby Witt Jr, is the number one prospect in baseball, but at that point, you’re really just splitting hairs. The point is, Adley is the real deal, and expect him to make a huge impact once he reaches the majors this season. It’s been a pretty miserable few years in Baltimore, but he could make it all worth it.

New York Yankees

Biggest Loss: Corey Kluber

The two-time Cy Young winner may be past his prime and may have only pitched 80 innings, but his departure to Tampa in free agency could be a big one. Aside from having one of the best pitchers in baseball in Gerrit Cole, the Yankees have some serious questions in the starting rotation. In his limited time in 2021, Corey Kluber posted a 3.83 ERA, which certainly isn’t earth-shattering, but at least you’re pretty sure he won’t be bad. Throw in the no-hitter he threw last season, and you’ve got yourself a pretty solid arm. When healthy, he provided some much-needed stability to a very unstable Yankees rotation, and losing that could prove costly in the long run.

Biggest Addition: Josh Donaldson

If you’re anything like me, the picture above may be very upsetting to see, but it’s something we’ll have to get used to. Josh Donaldson is a certified franchise legend for the Blue Jays, so seeing him in pinstripes just doesn’t feel right. That being said, the Yankees should be pretty happy they have him. He may not be the player he used to be, but make no mistake, the “Bringer of Rain” still mashes.

In his brief time with the Twins, JD posted a 128 OPS+ over 163 games, and has a truly breathtaking baseball savant page ranking near the top of the league in most offensive categories, including being in the 99th percentile for average exit velocity. Add to that being in the 63rd percentile for outs above average, and you’ve got a player who could make a huge impact in the Bronx. His power-hitting should pair well with the short-porches in Yankees Stadium, and despite his hefty contract, only having to give up Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez for him and Isiah Kiner-Falefa feels like a steal. I know some people are saying that the Twins fleeced the Yankees since they were able to sign Carlos Correa, but the fact is that the Yankees added a very good bat to their roster.

Breakout Candidate: Luis Gil

This one might seem like a bit of a cop-out, since Luis Gil had a pretty solid MLB stint in 2021, but he only had six starts, and after he went scoreless in his first three, the rest were not very good. Gil only pitched 29.1 innings in 2021, posting a 3.07 ERA, but expect him to take a step forward in his official rookie season. The right-handed starter is mainly a 4-seam, slider pitcher, with an occasional changeup thrown in, and this is a pitch mix that we’ve seen work a lot in recent years (particularly with Robbie Ray in 2021). His 4-seamer can also reach triple-digits, so he’s got plenty of juice. In his first three starts where he allowed no runs in 15.2 innings, he showed signs of brilliance, and with a full offseason of work, expect big things from Gil in 2022.

Boston Red Sox

Biggest Loss: Kyle Schwarber

As a trade deadline acquisition, Kyle Schwarber was a huge part of a 2021 Red Sox team that made it all the way to the ALCS. In his limited time with the Sox, Schwarber posted a 154 OPS+ over 168 plate appearances to go along with seven homers, adding three more in the postseason. Despite some pretty significant defensive deficiencies, Schwarber was arguably the team’s most valuable player at the plate in the second half of the season, which he was able to leverage into a big contract with the Phillies. His presence as a lefty power-bat was invaluable down the stretch and the Sox will almost certainly miss him.

Biggest Addition: Trevor Story

As much as it hurts to lose Schwarber, bringing in Trevor Story really softens that blow.  The Red Sox recently signed the former Rockies shortstop to a six-year, 140 million dollar contract, and despite a down year in 2021, I think he’s worth every penny. Story got off to a rocky start this past season (pun not intended), but bounced back, posting an .843 second-half OPS. Prior to that though, Story was a consistently top-tier hitter, with elite defence at a premium position. When he’s playing well, he’s a true five-tool player, and should really elevate the Red Sox roster. It’s unclear whether he’ll have to move to second base to accommodate Xander Bogaerts or not yet, but no matter where he’s playing, expect Trevor Story to be a problem for the Blue Jays in years to come.

Breakout Candidate: Bobby Dalbec

The Red Sox young first baseman got off to a very rough start in 2021, but got hot down the stretch, putting himself in line to be the Red Sox starter come April. The 26-year-old absolutely raked in the second half, posting a 153 OPS+ and 15 homers in 61 games. He still needs to improve his plate discipline, as he struck out 156 times with just 28 walks, but even if he remains in that range, his raw power should make up for it.

In 2021, he was in the 91st percentile for average exit velocity per baseball savant, and doing that from the right side of the plate should play well in Fenway. Mix in that fact that he’ll be in a lineup filled with other good hitters, and you’ve got one of baseball’s best power hitters in the making.

Tampa Bay Rays

Biggest Loss: Collin McHugh

The Rays live and die by their bullpen, and Collin McHugh was their best reliever in 2021. In 64 innings last season, McHugh posted a 1.55 ERA, which priced him out of Tampa and led to him signing with the Braves. As big of a loss as this is for the Rays, they seem to be able to pull solid relievers out of thin air, so I doubt they’re too concerned at the moment. That being said, losing a player like McHugh always hurts, so this is still a blow to their bullpen.

Biggest Addition: Corey Kluber

This section is a bit tough for the Rays since most of their best players either come from their farm system or are smaller names they acquired via trade of free agency. With ace Tyler Glasnow out for the season though, they decided to go out and get an established arm in Corey Kluber. I already covered Kluber when looking at the Yankees biggest loss, but his role with the Rays isn’t very clear. Given their unorthodox style pitcher usage, it’s unclear whether he’ll be used as a full-time starter or if they plan on using him as a bulk reliever to help counteract his recent injury history. Either way, Kluber should provide some good innings for the Rays this season, if he can stay healthy.

Breakout Candidate: Vidal Brujan

Second baseman/outfielder, Vidal Brujan, made a brief appearance in the majors last season but performed exceptionally bad. In 26 plate appearances, he somehow managed a -54 OPS+, so at this point, there’s really nowhere to go but up. Brujan is currently the Rays number four prospect, 77 overall, according to MLB Pipeline, and has a chance to take the role of the team’s main utility guy in 2022. He has positional versatility, something that the Rays love, and projects as someone who can be an above-average, every day bat. He’s also a major threat on the base paths, racking up 44 steals in 103 games with AAA Durham in 2021. Brujan provides value in so many aspects of the game that the Rays will have a hard time keeping him out of the lineup, and he could be a dark horse contender for American League Rookie of the Year.