2022 Blue Jays FanGraphs Steamer Projections Analysis

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Sep 20, 2021; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Teoscar Hernandez (37) celebrates with designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) his solo home run hit against the Tampa Bay Rays during the second inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

With the MLB lockout already cancelling the first two series of the season, we’ll have to wait a little while to see the Blue Jays in action. However, that can’t stop us from trying to project how they will perform this season, and one of the most popular ways of doing so is FanGraphs’ Steamer Projections.

There are a number of different projection formulas that people use to attempt to project player statistics, with two of the biggest baseball stat sites, Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, each using their own formula, but for this analysis, I’m going to be looking at the Steamer Projections used by FanGraphs.

According to MLB.com, “Steamer is a system of projections developed by Jared Cross — a high school science teacher in Brooklyn — and two of his former students, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom. It is currently used by Fangraphs as its primary projection system for individual players.” As for the formula, they say that “Like other projection systems, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers.”

FanGraphs currently has their Steamer Projections for every MLB batter and pitcher available on their site. I’ll be looking at their projections for some Blue Jays and giving my analysis of how accurate I think these projections are. I’ll be going through the infield, outfield, and starting rotation in their own sections, covering the players of note. I’ll be skipping a few players such as George Springer, Cavan Biggio, and Nate Pearson, since we’ve already covered their projections, along with a couple of others, in another article, which can be found right here.

One final note before we start. This isn’t a criticism of Steamer Projections, personally, I think that it’s one of, if not the best sabermetric-based projection systems. That being said, every system has its flaws because there are so many different factors that just can’t be put into a formula, so I’m bound to disagree with some of their projections.

Oct 3, 2021; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) reaches for but misses a ball hit for a single by Baltimore Orioles second baseman Pat Valaika (not shown) in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /

Infielders

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming off a 2021 season in which he finished second in American League MVP voting and won the Hank Aaron Award for the league’s best hitter, and FanGraphs projects him to do more of the same in 2022. Steamer Projections give him a .309/.394/.611 slash line with 46 homers and a WRC+ of 165, which is one point lower than in 2021, despite his projected OPS of 1.005 being three points higher. They also gave him a 6.1 WAR, down a bit from his 6.7 this past season. It should be noted that they also have him only playing in 150 games.

Overall, it’s hard to argue with these projections. They have him first for MLB in home runs and second for WRC+, behind only Juan Soto, so just like Blue Jays fans, FanGraphs recognizes Vladdy as one of baseball’s top hitters.

Bo Bichette

Last season, Bo Bichette put together a remarkable campaign, leading the AL in hits, making his first All-Star appearance, and finishing 12th in AL MVP voting. Once again, he’s expected to do more of the same, with a projected WRC+ of 125, up three points from last season, and a slash line of .291/.342/.503. One area where they do expect regression though is on the base paths, as they have him stealing only 17 bases and getting caught 7 times, compared to his 25 steals on just 26 attempts in 2021. They do, however, project significant defensive improvement, with his defensive performance above average (def) jumping from 0.2 to 5.3, which seems very possible considering how much he improved over the course of the season.

Similar to Vladdy, these projections for Bo seem pretty reasonable, but I don’t think it would be overreacting to expect him to out-perform these projections. Apart from an August slump last season, Bo was one of baseball’s elite bats, and given the fact that he’ll only be 24-years-old this season, there’s no reason not to expect him to get even better.

Santiago Espinal

Santiago Espinal was the Blue Jays’ third baseman for most of 2021 and was somewhat of a pleasant surprise. He posted a 115 WRC+ and actually led all MLB third basemen with at least 240 plate appearances in batting average at .311. This was in a relatively small sample size of just 92 games, and the general consensus seems to be that he would work better in a utility role, as opposed to remaining as the starter at third. His projections seem to echo this sentiment as they give him a 91 WRC+ along with a .267/.325/.380 slash line. These projections are obviously formula based and considering Espinal isn’t known for hard hits and high launch angles, this isn’t particularly surprising.

While I think it’s definitely fair to expect some regression to the mean in 2022, the massive dip in production seems like it could be avoided if he’s able to play a utility role. Even then, Espinal showed some solid play last season and we shouldn’t write him off too quickly. Maybe he won’t be as good as he was in 2021, but his projected number may still be a bit low.

Oct 3, 2021; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays center fielder George Springer (4, centre) and right fieder Randal Grichuk (15) and left fielder Teoscar Hernandez (37, right) celebrate a win over Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /

Outfielders

Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez proved that his 2020 Silver Slugger season was far from a fluke, as he once again put up excellent numbers in 2021. Not only did he win another Silver Slugger Award, but he earned himself a starting spot in the All-Star game along with finishing 19th in AL MVP voting. He did a ton of damage to left-handed pitching this past season, with a 203 WRC+ against south-paws (the second-best in MLB, behind only Mike Zunino) which helped carry him to a 132 WRC+. The Steamer Projections are expecting a big drop-off in 2022 though, giving him a .258/.318/.488 slash line with a 114 WRC+. This is a pretty huge drop-off for someone with a 134 WRC+ over the past two seasons, and I can only assume that they’re projecting his astronomical numbers against lefties to come back down to earth.

Given his sudden rise from league-average-hitter to borderline star, I feel like pessimism about Teo has been fairly prominent this offseason. Having said that, over these past two years, he’s more than earned his reputation as one of the American League’s better hitters, and even if he is due for some regression to the mean, I think that the drop in production we’re seeing from FanGraphs’ projections might be a bit drastic.

Using FanGraphs Steamer Projection system, here’s a look at how some of the Blue Jays hitters and pitchers are expected to perform in 2022.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is an extremely streaky hitter, which makes projecting him almost impossible. After a pretty abysmal first few months of the 2021 season, Lourdes got hot, posting a 136 WRC+ in the second half of the season. His season total was dragged down by the aforementioned slow start, so his final WRC+ ended up at 107, and that’s just about where FanGraphs has him, as they project him have a 108 WRC+. They also project him to have a very weak season in the field, giving him a -8.7 defensive value, which may come as a surprise if you just look at his Gold Glove nominations, but if you’ve watched the Blue Jays play, you know the field is where he struggles the most.

As I said, Lourdes is almost impossible to project, given how streaky he is, but personally, I have a bit more optimism that he’ll carry his second-half hot streak into 2022, and put up a WRC+ closer to 115. That being said, you can’t fault the formula for this projection, Lourdes feels like a wild card.

Randal Grichuk

Currently projected to be the fourth outfielder/DH for the 2022 season, Randal Grichuk appeared in 149 games last season, mostly due to George Springer’s absence. I’ll be completely honest, I think that Grich is an incredibly limited hitter, and I am not particularly optimistic about him entering the season. He finished dead-last in the American League for on-base percentage in both 2019 and 2021 and doesn’t bring enough to the table in other parts of his game to make up for it, posting an 85 WRC+ this past year. FanGraphs is actually projecting improvement from Grichuk though, giving him a 99 WRC+ with a .246/.296/.459. This improvement seems to stem from a projected power surge with 23 homers in just 118 games, which isn’t entirely unfounded, but even when he hit 31 in 2019, he still finished with a 90 WRC+.

Again, I’m not very high on Grichuk, and I wouldn’t anticipate some breakout season from him in 2022. However, moving him into more of a utility role could help his production, so don’t completely rule out his ability to be a league-average hitter.

DETROIT, MI – AUGUST 28: Toronto Blue Jays players and coaches walk in from the bullpen in front of a Fanatics sign on the outfield wall prior to the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on August 28, 2021 in Detroit, Michigan. Earlier in the month Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) announced an agreement to a new licensing deal with Fanatics to produce baseball cards ending a longtime agreement with Topps. Topps agreements with the MLB and the MLBPA run through 2025 and 2022, respectively. The Blue Jays defeated the Tigers 3-2. (Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /

Starting Pitchers

Jose Berrios

After joining the team at the trade deadline last season, Jose Berrios played a big role in the team’s success down the stretch. After signing a 7-year, $131 million dollar extension this offseason, he seems primed to be one of the Jays’ top starters for years to come, but FanGraphs is projecting him to put up pretty average numbers in 2022. During his time in Toronto last season, Berrios posted a 3.58 ERA over 70.1 innings, but his projections have his ERA rising to 3.96 over 196 innings. They have his K/9 dropping to 9.24, much lower than his 10 in 2021 with the Jays, and have his FIP going up to 3.95, which would be the highest of his career in a full season.

Overall, I think these projections for Berrios are extremely pessimistic, however, Steamer Projections generally do not favour pitchers, and his projected ERA is actually in the top ten for AL starters. That being said, I would expect Berrios to perform much better than these projections and hopefully live up to his contract

Kevin Gausman

Kevin Gausman has been the Blue Jays’ big offseason acquisition to this point, after signing a 5-year, $110 million dollar deal with the team. He’s coming off a career year with the Giants in which he put up a 2.81 ERA over 192 innings and finished sixth in NL Cy Young voting. Much like Berrios, FanGraphs has him regressing and his ERA rising to 3.93 over 188 innings. The rest of his rate stats follow the same pattern, generally regressing to the mean to a certain degree.

Just as I said with Berrios, I think these projections are very pessimistic, and I don’t think it would be unreasonable to expect another Cy Young calibre performance in Gausman’s first year with the Jays.

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Hyun-Jin Ryu, was excellent in 2020, his first year with the Blue Jays, finishing third in AL Cy Young voting in the COVID shortened season. He carried that success into the first half of 2021 posting a 3.56 ERA, but struggled in the second half, to the tune of a 5.50 ERA. He finished the year with a 4.37 ERA over 169 innings, but this time FanGraphs actually has him improving slightly with a 4.10 ERA over 177 innings. That would still be a down year for Ryu’s standards and, once again, I think it would be reasonable to expect him to perform a bit better than that.

Ryu’s second-half struggles came pretty much out of nowhere so it’s hard to project exactly how he’ll perform next season. When it comes to players with a proven track record like Ryu, I tend to lean on the side of optimism, but it’s possible that a 4.10 ERA type guy is just who Ryu is now, only time will tell.

Alek Manoah

Right-hander Alek Manoah debuted to the majors last season after only pitching 35 innings in the minor leagues and was absolutely fantastic with the Blue Jays. In 111.2 innings he posted a 3.22 ERA and finished eighth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Once again though, FanGraphs has him regressing and putting up a 4.21 ERA over just 147 innings, although they do put his K/9 at 10 which would be near the top of the league.

Next. Predicting the Blue Jays Opening Day Roster. dark

Manoah having only pitched one season in the majors makes him very hard to project, so I don’t blame this projection for giving him such weak numbers. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but I would expect Manoah to put up better numbers than he is projected to, especially considering he now has most of a season in the majors under his belt.

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