Top 5 options to fill out the Blue Jays starting Rotation

Yusei Kikuchi: Free Agent

Japanese import Yusei Kikuchi put together a fantastic first half of the 2021 season, posting a 3.48 ERA over 98.1 innings, earning himself his first career All-star game appearance. The latter half of the season was a completely different story though, as he put up a 5.98 ERA over 58.2 innings. This brutal second half led to the Mariners choosing not to pick up his contract option and has put him on the open market.

Back in December, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that the Blue Jays were one of three teams who had given Kikuchi an offer, so the interest is there. It’s just a question of whether or not the Jays should want him and what it could cost.

A significant amount of damage dealt to Kikuchi was against his cutter this past season (per Baseball Savant), which is his signature pitch. While it’s obviously concerning that his main pitch was what got him in the most trouble, there’s reason to believe that working with a Pete Walker could help him find his groove, given his track record with guys like Robbie Ray and Steven Matz.

While he may not be the safest bet, he shouldn’t command too much on the open market and will likely be looking for a one-year prove-it deal, which could come for less than the 13 million dollar option he turned down before becoming a free agent. Kikuchi probably shouldn’t be at the top of the Jays list, but for a fifth starter, you could do a lot worse.

Zach Davies: Free Agent

Coming off of great 2019 and 2020 seasons with the Brewers and Padres, Zach Davies had high expectations entering 2021. Unfortunately, it became a nightmare year for the right-hander, as he finished with a 5.78 ERA over 148 innings, and issued the most walks in the National League. Similar to Kikuchi, Davies will most likely be looking for a one-year prove-it deal in a similar price range, but unlike Kikuchi, Davies has a longer proven track record of MLB success.

From 2019 to 2020 Davies had an ERA of 3.30 over 229 innings, which was 9th best amongst National Leagues starters with at least 200 innings pitched. His biggest problem in 2021 was walks, but given what Pete Walker was able to do for Robbie Ray’s control (another NL pitcher who walked a lot of batters), it’s hard to think of a better place for Davies to get back on track.

Davies’ statcast metrics were horrendous this past year and while I do think that’s reason for concern, his past performance should leave plenty of room for optimism. He’s never been a big strikeout pitcher, mostly pitching to contact, which is something the Jays have shown they’ve been able to work with. He has a similar repertoire to Hyun-Jin Ryu, so working with him could also help with a bounce back. It would be foolish of the Blue Jays to just look at the positives when it comes to Davies, because there are some serious concerns, but he could be an interesting gamble for the Jays to take.

Sean Manaea: Oakland A’s

A’s starter, Sean Manaea, is entering the final year of his contract and is coming off the best season of his career, making it very unlikely that the A’s retain him. In 2021, Manaea had a 3.91 ERA over 179.1 innings and pitched two complete game shutouts, which led MLB. While he seems like a safer option than Kikuchi or Davies, the Jays would have to give something up for him in a trade, but given that it would likely just be a one-year rental, he shouldn’t cost too much.

Some people may be concerned about Manaea moving from Oakland, a notoriously pitcher-friendly park, but his home and away splits were almost identical last season. This should leave little room for concern in regards to him coming to a more hitter-friendly park in the Rogers Centre, but it should still be noted.

It’s possible that the Jays could try to package him into a trade for A’s third baseman Matt Chapman, but to get Manaea alone, I imagine they would have to send over a top 10 prospect, a mid-range prospect, and some international signing pool money. Adam Kloffenstein and Kevin Smith come to mind as some players that could be sent over, and they’d be well worth giving up for a year of a solid arm like Manaea. He’s also someone who the Jays could go after at the deadline should they still have a need for him, so make sure to keep an eye on him as the season progresses.

Sonny Gray: Cincinnati Reds

While his 4.19 ERA this past season might not look great at first, don’t let it deceive you. Sonny Gray is a fantastic pitcher, and when he’s at his best, he’s one of the better pitchers in baseball. Aside from two rough seasons in 2016 and 2018, Gray has been a consistently great pitcher since entering the majors in 2013, finishing 3rd in AL Cy Young voting in 2015 and 7th in the NL in 2019.

As for this past season, as I said, don’t let his ERA fool you. He played in a very hitter-friendly park in Cincinnati, and his underlying numbers reflect how good he actually was. He had a 114 ERA+, which means he was 14% better than the average pitcher in this metric. His statcast metrics were also phenomenal, as he excelled at limiting hard contact. His actual ERA was likely just a case of bad luck, and I would expect a big bounce-back season in 2022.

As for what the Blue Jays would need to give up, one of their top prospects would likely need to be sent over considering how good Gray can be, and that he has two years of club control left. I’d imagine someone like Jordan Groshans would be the main piece in the deal or maybe even a higher rated prospect like Orelvis Martinez, plus some other pitching prospects like CJ Van Eyk. This may seem like a high price to pay, but Gray has the potential to put the Jays rotation over the edge and make it one of the deadliest units in baseball.

Luis Castillo: Cincinnati Reds

2021 was a tale of two seasons for Luis Castillo, but unlike Yusei Kikuchi, he only got better as the season went on. Through the first two months of the season, he had a 7.22 ERA in 52.1 innings but had a 2.73 ERA over 135.1 innings for the remainder of the year. That latter half of the season is the Luis Castillo that we had become accustomed to seeing over the past few years, as he’d proven himself as one of the National League’s best starters since 2019.

Castillo’s arsenal features a fastball, sinker, changeup, and slider, all of which have both top-tier movement and velocity. He’s got a deadly high 90s fastball, along with one of the league’s better changeups. He’s also got a solid sinker and slider, and uses every pitch at least 17% of the time. When he’s on his game, there are very few pitchers who can do what he does. Like his teammate, Sonny Gray, Castillo has two years of club control remaining, but I would expect him to cost a bit more in a trade.

The Blue Jays would likely have to add another prospect like Adam Kloffenstein to the package of Martinez/Groshans and Van Eyk, since Castillo is both younger and has more tools for a team to work with. Not only would Castillo improve the Jays rotation, but he also has the potential to be their ace if they were to get him. It would be an expensive trade, but the potential payoff could be huge.