Blue Jays: What kind of trade value would Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have?

His bargain contract has changed a bit

Late last season, something happened that I can’t remember ever taking place with the Blue Jays before, or even with another player around the league. Due to a miscalculation on some prominent websites that cover MLB contracts, and a widespread misunderstanding, Gurriel Jr’s contract control suddenly went from three years remaining down to two. Naturally this was a pretty significant development.

Instead of having Gurriel Jr. under contract through the 2024 season, the Blue Jays now have to deal with the reality that he’ll be a free agent after the 2023 campaign. That’s an extra bummer because fellow corner outfielder Teoscar Hernandez will be a free agent at the same time, and it’s doubtful that the Jays will be able to retain both, or possibly either of them depending on the other roster decisions they make.

The good news for the Blue Jays is that Gurriel Jr. still comes at a bargain rate for those remaining two years. Assuming it’s correct, according to Spotrac.com he’ll receive 4.5 million in 2022, and a modest raise to 5.4 million in 2023. For a player his potential output, that’s a massive bargain. Gurriel Jr. earned 2.7 bWAR in 2022, so he far outperformed his 3.5 million dollar contract last season.

As far as his trade value, losing that extra year of contract control certainly hurts. For example, let’s say he was being offered as part of a hypothetical package for Jose Ramirez of the Cleveland Guardians. It actually would make sense if Cleveland was interested in the corner outfielder, as that’s been an area of weakness in their organization for several years now. Having said that, they’re probably facing a bit of a rebuild, especially if they decide to deal Ramirez, so finding a longer term option than just two years remaining on Gurriel Jr. would likely be preferred.

There’s no doubt that his bargain contract would endear him to more teams on the trade market, but losing that third year really stings. In fact, I’d go as far as saying it might make the difference in whether it makes sense to trade him or not.

Looking at comparable trades

What’s one of the first places we should go when trying to figure out a player’s trade value? Most of the time that would be to look for a precedent in a previous deal, so I sifted through some of the swaps that have taken place through MLB over the past few years.

And let me tell you, there aren’t a lot of solid players in similar situations to Gurriel Jr.

I believe that the closest player I could find would be Andrew Benintendi of the Kansas City Royals, who was dealt there from Boston. It’s far from a perfect fit, but here’s why I think there is at least some level of comparison:

• He had 9.3 bWAR from 2017-2020 for an average of a little better than 2.3 (keeping in mind the shortened season in 2020 that messes with the average in general, so bare with me here). Gurriel Jr. was worth 2.7 bWAR in 2021, and has earned 5.8 bWAR from 2018-2021. If you break it down to a 162-game average, it’s actually pretty close.
• Benintendi is a much, much better defender, but for what it’s worth they are both primarily left fielders with Gold Glove nominations on their resumes (Benintendi won the LF award in 2021).
• Benintendi also had two years remaining on his contract when he was traded to Kansas City, although he certainly makes more than Gurriel Jr. He earned 6.6 million in 2021, and is set to make 9.6 million in 2022 before he’ll be a free agent at the end of the season.
• Gurriel Jr. is 28 years old and Benintendi won’t turn 28 until July, so the latter was younger at the time he was dealt.

As you can see it’s far from a perfect comparison, but this is a hard comp to find. That said, let’s look at what Benintendi brought back for the Red Sox. It was actually a three-team swap between the Royals, Red Sox, and New York Mets, with the Sox receiving Franchy Cordero from the Royals, and players to be named later.

Those players ended up being RHPs Luis De La Rosa and Grant Gambrell from the Kansas City Royals, and OF Freddy Valdez from the New York Mets. While neither of the pitchers were ranked among the Royals top 30 prospects, Valdez was as high as #14 in the Mets system. As for Cordero, it’s hard to say if he’ll ever find his potential at the highest level, but he certainly has power in that bat of his. It’s also worth noting that the Red Sox sent 2.8 million to Kansas City as part of the deal.

So getting back to Gurriel Jr., can we glean anything from all of this? I’m not going to pretend that it’s a close enough comparison to learn much, but I think we have to remember that corner outfielders aren’t as valued as they once were. At the end of the day, the return for Benintendi was pretty light when you consider that he was a 26 year old who already had a 4.8 bWAR season under his belt. Granted, he was coming off of a disappointing 2020 campaign where he was held to just 14 games, but still.

The main point I want to make with this whole comparison is that the return in value for someone like Gurriel Jr. may not be as high as many believe that it could be. I realize that the Blue Jays wouldn’t be looking for prospects in return for their starting left fielder in this case, but the “value” is something to pay attention to. As a corner outfielder in today’s big leagues, you have to be absolutely elite in order to stand out. Otherwise, teams seem to look for cheaper solutions on the free agent market, and in many cases there are still options available.

Is it worth it?

The big question about whether or not to trade Lourdes Gurriel Jr. comes down to whether it’s worth it to do so.

Obviously that depends on the player that the Blue Jays are targeting, and if that the potential trade partner has interest in someone like Gurriel Jr. In the previously mentioned hypothetical with Cleveland, I could see the Guardians having at least some interest. That said, Gurriel Jr. would be just a small piece of the puzzle in that kind of deal.

In Jim Bowden’s recent article at the Athletic (subscription required), he presents a potential package that the Blue Jays could offer, although I’m not sure if it would be enough. His idea was an offer of Jordan Groshans, Otto Lopez, and last year’s first round pick Gunnar Hogland. If that would get it done then I think the Blue Jays would agree to the swap as fast as they possibly could, but I saw several fans on social media suggesting that the Jays should throw Gurriel Jr. in the offer in one form or another.

I can understand the rationale, especially because there are still several outfielders available on the free agent market, but I think there are a few important points to consider. One, Gurriel Jr. is on a bargain deal, and his low salary allows the Blue Jays to spend money in another area.

Secondly, we saw what kind of value Gurriel Jr. can bring to the table when he’s playing his best baseball, and his second half of 2021 was extremely encouraging. It was keyed by a tweak in his batting approach, and for those that remember what a tweak did for Jose Bautista, I’m not so sure the Blue Jays should be rushing Gurriel Jr. out of town. I’m not suggesting he’s going to lead the league in home runs, but he was a very dangerous hitter after the All-Star break, and he legitimately carried the offence at times.

Third, and maybe the most important point, is that Gurriel Jr. is clearly part of a tightly-knit group of players in Toronto these days. In particular it looks like he has a pretty special bond with franchise cornerstone Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as the two are frequently seen laughing it up on the bench with others like Teoscar Hernandez and Santiago Espinal. Those relationships are important for the energy in the clubhouse, especially over the course of a long 162 game season. It’s also important to keep a player like Guerrero Jr. happy, in particular if you intend to try and sign him to a long-term extension. Is trading one of his best friends the best way to do that? I’m not so sure.

So having said all of that, what kind of trade value would Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have if the Blue Jays made him available? It’s not an easy question to answer, and when you consider all of the variables involved in the equation I’m not sure the return would be worth letting go of an emerging talent. In my view, the Blue Jays are way better off hanging on to the 28 year old unless they’re blown away by an offer that I just don’t see coming.