Blue Jays: Ryu’s rough 2021 campaign and a prediction for 2022

With the Blue Jays 2022 season quickly approaching, pending an agreement between the MLBPA and MLB,  I want to look back on left-handed pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu’s 2021 performance.

Looking at his stats, you can see that last year was definitely one to forget. Was his 2021 season a sign of things to expect again, or will he make a comeback this year?

This was the second year of Ryu’s four-year, $80M contract with the Jays. In 2020, despite the shortened 60-game pandemic season, he finished with a 2.9 WAR and a 2.69 ERA through 12 starts. His 2021 season did not live up to expectations of his debut year with the Jays, as Ryu ended up posting a 1.7 WAR and 4.37 ERA through 169.0 innings of work and also ended up on the IL two separate trips. These stats do not back up what the Blue Jays were expecting when they signed Ryu away from the Dodgers in 2019.

A dive into pitcher Ryu’s tough 2021 season, talks of the pitchers added to the lineup for the Blue Jays and my predictions on Ryu’s upcoming 2022 season.

Former Blue Jays southpaw Robbie Ray stole the spotlight from Ryu this past season. In 193.1 innings, Ray, who was acquired at the 2020 trade deadline from Arizona and re-signed last winter, ended up posting a 13-7 record with a 2.84 ERA and 6.7 WAR. This was one of the best seasons of his career which culminated in Ray winning the AL CY Young Award.

For a comparison of how insane Ray’s 2021 season was, Ryu had 143 strikeouts, while Ray compiled a whopping 248, which led all of Major League Baseball.

I chose to mention Ray and compare some stats between his and Ryu’s seasons to show how Ryu did not have his fastball (no pun intended), which definitely left some disappointed fans. The acquisition of Jose Berrios from Minnesota at the trade deadline helped put a bandage on a leaky rotation, but now with Ray gone, they sought after and signed 31-year-old pitcher Kevin Gausman from the Giants.

Gausman, who played for the Giants over the past two seasons, inked a five-year, $110M contract with Toronto before the 2022 lockout. The right-hander finished his 2021 season strong with a 14-6 record, pitching to a 2.81 ERA and 5.2 WAR. The first-time All-Star also struck out 227 batters through 192 innings.

There are some factors that could have contributed to Ryu’s 2021 performance, with his age being one of the top potential variables.

Ryu, 35, is up there for one of the highest-paid players on the Blue Jays (Springer & Berrios being above him) making $20 million annually during his four-year contract, and the 2022 season will be the third year of his deal. Ryu very much struggled last year and a lot of fans will probably expect to see him at less than ace-levels once again in 2022. The average retirement age for MLB players is 29, or under 30 for all major sports leagues, but a lot of players don’t retire this young. A lot of teams will not give long contacts to older players either, being that they just want younger players.

I feel like the 2022 season will be a repeat of Ryu’s 2021 stats, which was a rough one. His season to forget may just be the start of things to expect for the last two years of his contract. My prediction is that either Gausman or Berrios will be relied on more this season, as they both had 192 innings pitched. Ryu only had 169 innings pitched, which shows he cannot keep up like Gausman and Berrios (who are both younger) can. I predict Ryu will pitch 169 innings or less, have less strikeouts and have around the same ERA and WAR as the 2021 season.

Ryu was also put on the 10-day injured list with neck tightness on September 19, while the Jays were in the middle of fighting for the AL Wild Card spot. This was the second time in the season he was placed on the injured list , with the first time being a right hip injury in April. There are just so many signs that his age is becoming a factor and even affecting his game play, which will not do good for his 2022 stats. He could very well surprise us all and turn things around, but for now we wait and see.