A Bold Offseason Move For The Blue Jays And Their AL East Rivals

The New York Yankees need to add a shortstop this winter.  Former top prospect Gleyber Torres has shown time and time again that he is unable to man the position, as over the past two seasons (since taking over the everyday shortstop duties), the Venezuelan native has posted a -9 outs above average rating and cost the Yankees 7 runs, both fifth worst amongst qualified shortstops in that time frame.

Torres’ offensive production has also seen a sharp decline since making the move to short.  Over the last two seasons, the two time All-Star has hit a mere .256, with an underwhelming .703 OPS in 169 games.  Comparing this to his first two seasons in the Majors, where Torres was primarily playing second base, he slashed .275, while averaging 31 home runs a season, showing the decline in offensive production since changing positions.  The Yankees would benefit from adding a true shortstop, to not only give them an anchor in the middle of the infield, but to aid Torres in returning to the elite offensive player he was just two short seasons ago.

The 2021 offseason appeared to be the perfect time for the Yankees to splash some cash and add a premier shortstop to their roster, due to the quantity of talent there was on the open market.  After watching Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Javy Baez sign elsewhere, the Yankees are quickly running out of options at the position, and may start to press a little bit once free agency resumes.

The consensus top option in Carlos Correa is still available, and should be the Yankees sole focus once the CBA lockout ends.  Correa and the Yankees appear to be a match made in heaven due their desperate need at shortstop and Correa’s ability with the bat and glove.  Despite the nearly perfect fit, there are many people within the industry who believe that the Yankees may not be able to meet Correa’s financial demands.

It was reported by Jon Hayman that the two time All-Star is looking for at least 330 million dollars this offseason.  The Yankees have been uncharacteristically hesitant to spend large amounts of money in recent years, and with ESPN’s Buster Olney reporting that the club is prioritizing an Aaron Judge extension, GM Brian Cashman may think twice before handing out one of the largest contracts in baseball history.

It doesn’t appear that the lure of New York and the prestige of the Yankees will be enough to draw Correa to the Bronx.  If another shortstop-hungry team like the Phillies, Astros, or even the Tigers beats the Yankees offer, the Puerto Rico native won’t think twice and will head to an alternative destination.  If the Yankees miss out on Correa, Cashman will have watched four of the top shortstops on the open market sign elsewhere, while he remains empty handed.  If this scenario plays out, it wouldn’t surprise me if the veteran GM starts to feel the heat and makes a rash decision to bring Trevor Story on board.

Heading into this season, it appeared that Story was going to be the one in Correa’s position as the top shortstop on the market.  Through the 2018-2020 season’s, Story had blossomed into one the premier offensive shortstops in all of baseball, posting an impressive .291 average and a .909 OPS during that three year period, while also finishing within the top 15 of NL MVP voting every season during this stretch.  Along with his elite offensive ability, Story was viewed as a plus defender and runner, and at just 28 years old, most people believed he would be looking at a monster contract once he hit free agency this offseason.

Unfortunately, Story had one of the worst seasons of his career in 2021, witnessing a huge drop off in his power production, posting an OPS+ of 103.  Story also witnessed a decline in his defensive play, committing a career high 14 errors, while costing the Rockies seven runs throughout the season.

By no means is Story bad player.  He’s a career .272 hitter and has tallied over 100 home runs and stolen bases during his six years in the big leagues.  The problem is that the Irving, Texas product lacks consistency, and for every All-Star caliber season he has, he’ll have an underwhelming year where he looks like a completely different player .

Despite this, there’s a huge demand for shortstops this offseason and with there only being two options left, Story’s value will be inflated. MLB Trade Rumors projects that Story will receive a contract of 6 years, worth 126 million dollars.  While this is a substantial amount of money for a player as inconsistent as Story, it’s less than half of what Correa is asking for, and may be enough of a price difference to entice a team like the Yankees to pull the trigger, and make a deal happen.

If the rumours are true and the Yankees don’t want to pay over 300 million dollars to acquire the services of Correa, maybe they look for a more affordable option in Story, and hope that playing in the hitter-friendly AL East will bring more offensive consistency to his game.

The Red Sox were one of the biggest surprises in all of baseball last season.  After going 24-36 and making almost no additions this past offseason, the Bo Sox somehow managed to entirely flip the script, winning 92 games in baseball’s toughest division, which secured them a playoff berth.  This offseason, Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom may have to do a little more work than last winter, to ensure there is no regression from his squad, proving that last season wasn’t a fluke.

Despite having one of the most well-rounded lineups in all of baseball, the Red Sox have struggled to find production from their first baseman on a consistent bases.  Former top prospect Bobby Dalbec has struggled to find his footing at the big league level, and though Kyle Schwarber gave the team a boost offensively after being acquired at last season trade deadline, he struggled playing out of position, looking out of sorts at first base.  With Schwarber hitting the open market this winter, it may be time for the Sox to look for a permanent solution at first base, enter the Oakland A’s.

The A’s could be approaching an extremely busy time for their organization.  ESPN’s Bob Nightengale reported that the team is looking to reduce their salary to 50 million dollars next season, and there have been reports that the club is willing to listen to trade offers surrounding almost all of their key assets, including All Star first baseman Matt Olson.

Olson would be a fantastic addition to this Red Sox’s squad.  The former All Star was quietly one of the best offensive players in all of baseball last season, hitting .271, with 39 long balls and a very impressive .911 OPS.  Olson is also a premiere defender at first base.  Since 2019, the Georgia native has posted an outs above average rating of 4 and has saved three runs, 4th best amongst qualified first baseman in both categories.

After putting a rough shortened 2020 season behind him, and proving his offensive breakout in 2019 wasn’t a fluke, the A’s appear to be looking to maximize the 27 year olds trade value this winter.  Olson will have plenty of suitors looking to bring him on board and though Boston by no means has a great farm system, I believe that they have enough prospect capital to entice Oakland to send them their star first baseman

It would make a ton of sense for the Red Sox to include top prospect Triston Casas in this potential deal.  Casas projects as a first baseman, but if Olson is brought on board it would create a difficult path for the youngster to find regular playing time at the big league level.  Sending him to the A’s would give Oakland a cheap, controllable replacement for Olson to build around during their pending rebuilding stage, and provide the youngster with consistent at-bats.

Along with Casas, the Red Sox could include one their mid tear prospects, such as Nick Yorke, their 2020 first round selection, who hit .325 across A ball and High A at just 19 years of age last season, or Gilberto Jimenez, a speedy outfielder who’s slashed .324 across three minor league seasons.

Trading away a couple of highly rated prospects from a weak farm system would be a tough pill to swallow from Boston’s standpoint.  Despite this, the thought of adding Olson to a lineup that already consists of star players such as Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Alex Verdugo may be enough to sway Bloom into making this bold move.

In return, the A’s would be receiving a 22 year old first baseman, that is a consensus top 100 prospect to replace Olson, in addition to another top 10 prospect in Boston’s system.

The Yankees have been a popular name linked to Olson in recent weeks.  However, it’s been reported that they are not willing to include top prospect’s Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza in a deal with Oakland.  Boston may have just enough from a prospect standpoint to hammer out a deal for Olson and because of this, I think they are a surprise team that has the ability to out bid their arch rivals for the underrated first baseman.

I was having a hard time trying to put together a potential move for the Tampa Bay Rays to make once the offseason resumes.  They’re a small market team that marches to the beat of their own drum.  Combining this with the limited amount of rumours surrounding any potential moves they could be working on makes it hard to predict which direction they may be headed in.

The Rays also have one of the better rosters in baseball. They have a really underrated rotation, with a couple of young studs in Luis Patino, Shane Baz and Tyler Glasnow (when he recovers from Tommy John surgery).  They also feature great depth in their outfield, with four starting caliber players and have a fantastic middle infield as well, with an All Star in Brandon Lowe and one of the brightest young stars in all of baseball in the form of Wander Franco.  The Rays have quality players at almost every position on the diamond, making it hard to pinpoint a major need that has the potential to be filled once the offseason resumes.

The only real hole the Rays possess is at third base.  Joey Wendle primarily maned the hot corner last season, but was dealt to the Marlins back in November.  Brandon Lowe and Yandy Diaz also saw a bit of time at third, but Lowe profiles much better as a second baseman and Diaz is better suited in a platoon role at first with Ji Man Choi.  The Rays could really use an everyday third baseman, and though it would be an uncharacteristic move, I believe that they are the team best positioned to land the top target on the market in Jose Ramirez.

Bringing Ramirez into the fold would be a very uncharacteristic move for the Rays organization.  They’re never in the market for super star caliber players due to their minuscule budget and are always looking for bargain deals on both the trade and free agent markets.  Ramirez is a unique case though, as he’s on a very team-friendly deal, slated to make a mere 26 million dollars over the next two seasons.

This would still be the largest contract on the Rays payroll, on an annual average basis, but with how talented of a player the three-time MVP finalist is, I have to believe that General Manager Erik Neander would be able to make a couple of moves to help with the teams finances.  Neander could trade a Mike Zunino, and his seven million dollars, or Ryan Yarbrough and his projected 4.6 million to create some payroll flexibility, and make the Ramirez addition more affordable.

The Rays also have the trade pieces to get this deal done, as they possess one of the best farm systems in all of baseball, with plenty of high end talent and depth within it.  It’s been reported that the Guardians want controllable, Major League talent in return for Ramirez, as they would still like to present the illusion of competitiveness next season.  The Rays could send Vidal Brujan, a 23 year old switch hitting shortstop, (ranked 21st on MLB PipeLines Top 100 list), that played a full season at triple A last year to the Guardians and not miss his presences due to the fact he’s blocked at the big league level by Franco and Lowe.

The same would apply for Josh Lowe (the 73rd ranked prospect per Pipeline), a 24 year old power corner outfielder that hit .290, with 23 long long balls in just 111 triple A games last season.  This is another young, highly regarded player in Tampa Bay’s organization that is going to have difficult time finding regular at-bats in the big leagues due to the clubs phenomenal outfield depth.

Along with Brujan and Lowe, the Rays could add a player like 20 year old Taj Bradley (Tampa’s # 6 prospect), who posted a 1.83 ERA in over 100 innings in A ball last season, or Carson Williams (Tampa’s #10 prospect), their first round pick in last year draft as “throw ins” to further entice Cleveland to pull the trigger, and deal the face of their franchise.

The Rays have the ability to send two big league ready, top 100 prospects, plus other highly regarded assets to the Guardians and not miss a beat, do to the immense amount of talent on their big league roster and in their farm system.  No other team has this luxury, and could provide the Rays with an easy path to one of the best players in baseball if they chose to move in that direction

The Rays have found sustained success over the last decade due to their ability to find value in bargain players.  The thought of them adding a legitimate superstar in Jose Ramirez is quite frankly terrifying, and would be horrendous news for the rest of the AL East.  It would undoubtedly be an uncharacteristic move, but Ramirez is a unique trade piece, due to his age, control and team-friendly salary.

If Tampa Bay ever plans to use some of the wealth in their farm system to acquire big league talent, this seems to be the perfect time for that to happen.  Ramirez would arguably be the best player to ever wear a Rays uniform, and would create one of the best duos in baseball with Wander Franco, that could help the Rays finally get over the top, and claim their first World Series in franchise history.

After MVP finalist Marcus Semien took his talents to Texas, it became obvious that the Blue Jays were going to have to try and replace his production with an addition this offseason.  The popular name linked to the club has been Guardian’s third baseman Jose Ramirez.

Ramirez checks a lot of boxes, however, I believe he may be out of the Jays’ range from a prospect standpoint, as I previously mentioned, a team like Tampa Bay could blow the Jays away with the depth they have in their farm system.  Also, it may not be a bad idea for the Jays to hold onto some of their more highly regarded prospects.  With extensions for Teoscar Hernández, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the horizon, having cheap, young talent at their disposal will help soften the blow once those previously mentioned names begin to earn larger salaries.

The Blue Jays still have a void to fill, and while Ramirez is the preferred option by most fans and media members, there are still other quality candidates that could be on the move this offseason.  I’ve already mentioned how it’s clear that Oakland is looking to deal almost anyone on their big league roster this winter.  Because of this, I believe the Jays could use the Bay Area based team to fill two needs for a lower cost than Ramirez by himself.

The main piece in this hypothetical return from Oakland would be Matt Chapman.  Personally, I’m a big supporter of the California native, and have been campaigning for him to be a member of this club since last offseason.  The two things that jump out when looking at Chapman as a player are his defensive abilities and the raw power he possesses.  Chapman has developed into one of the best defenders on the planet during his time with the A’s, posting an outs above average rating of 48 since entering the league back in 2017, and racking up two platinum glove awards as well.

Offensively, Chapman has had his fair share of ups and downs throughout his career.  The raw power is there, as the Cal State product has hit 25+ long balls in two of the last three seasons (hit 10 in 2020, on pace for 43).  The former All-Star has shown the ability to consistently make hard contact, finishing within the 90th percentile of both average exit velocity and hard hit percentage in three of the last four seasons.  The ability to create hard contact leads me to believe that a move to the hitter-friendly AL East could result in an uptick in Chapman’s home run total, which would make him a much more valuable offensive player.

There is some swing and miss in Chapman’s game, which has been the primary reason for some down seasons over the course of his career.  Despite this, the upside he could provide is real, and if the Blue Jays acquire him they’ll be getting a 28 year old that at the bare minimum will play elite defence at third, with the potential to hit 40+ long balls due to playing in a much more hitter-friendly ball park.

Along with Chapman, the A’s have expressed interest in moving three of their key starters this winter.  Even after adding Kevin Gausman before the work stoppage the Jays still have a need in their rotation, and will be looking to add another arm to fill that fifth spot.

I’ve recently written an article about why I believe Sean Manaea is a perfect fit for the Blue Jays due to the potential he has displayed over the course of his career, and the low risk attached to him due to having just one year remaining on his contract.  Acquiring Manaea would give the Jays one of the best “fifth staters” in baseball, and provide them with another hurler that has shown flash of developing into a top of the rotation arm

Jose Ramirez would be the dream acquisition for the Jays this offseason.  However, the Jose Berrios trade package would be the starting point for what the Guardians ask for when discussing moving their franchise player.  Chapman is coming off of a down season and Manaea only has one year of arbitration remaining.  This should reduce the value of both players, meaning the Blue Jays could have the opportunity to fill two key holes on their roster, with quality players for a cheaper cost than solely acquiring Ramirez.