Five Blue Jays Projected to Increase Production in 2022

As all Blue Jays fans know, injury issues significantly limited the production of several of the team’s key players for extended periods in 2021, perhaps most notably George Springer and Nate Pearson.  According to the most recent projections of the Steamer, better days are ahead for a group of now-healthy Jays heading into the 2022 season.

Currently used by Fangraphs as its primary projection system for individual players, Steamer relies on past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers and is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.  Here then, are five Blue Jays who Steamer projects to increase their production in 2022:

1.       George Springer

Springer only played in only 78 games in 2021, dealing with oblique, knee, and quad injuries.  While in the lineup, he was highly effective, collecting 22 home runs in 342 at-bats (less than half the number expected), an OPS of .907 and an fWAR of 2.4.  Steamer is projecting increased plate appearances for the center fielder in 2022 and increased production as a result – predicting 36 HR, an OPS of .846 and an fWAR of 4.0 (+1.6 from 2021).

2.       Nate Pearson

Expectations were sky-high for Pearson ahead of Spring Training when the former #1 prospect was expected to be a key piece of the Jays’ starting rotation.

Unfortunately, he managed only 15 innings with the big club while struggling with injuries and related control issues throughout the season. Now healthy again, and having perhaps less pressure on him with Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah fronting the starting rotation, Pearson is expected to take a significant step forward in 2022.  Steamer projects him to throw 99 innings in the majors this year, with an ERA of 4.39 and a projected fWAR of 0.9 (+0.9 from 2021).

Five Blue Jays players are projected to have strong 2022 campaigns after spending most of the 2021 season on the injured list.

3.       Cavan Biggio

Cavan Biggio played in just 79 games in 2021, dealing with neck and back issues, struggling to a .224 average and fWAR of -0.1.  In 2019 however, which was his most recent full season, he was one of the most productive second basemen in the AL.  While some have

speculated that the Blue Jays may yet acquire a free agent infielder once the lockout ends, others expect Biggio to recapture his 2019 form as the Jays everyday second baseman.  Steamer projects he will play 123 games in 2022, with a wRC+ of 101 and fWAR of 1.5 (+1.6 from 2021).

4.       Alejandro Kirk

Spending more than half the season on the IL, Alejandro Kirk managed just 189 plate appearances in 2021, posting relatively strong offensive numbers at the catcher position with a .764 OPS and 106 wRC+.  With an electric bat and strong arm, as well as increasing confidence behind the plate, the 23-year-old Kirk is projected by Steamer to post an OPS of .844, a 126 wRC+ and an fWAR of 2.0 (+1.3 from 2021).

5.       Danny Jansen

Appearing in 70 games in 2021, Danny Jansen struggled badly at the plate before stints on the IL and rehab assignments in Buffalo.  But over the final 30 days of the season, the 26-year-old catcher posted a .293 batting average, a .349 OBP, and 5 home runs. By the end of the campaign, Jansen had raised his batting average to .223 and he finished with 11 home runs. Steamer projects the positive momentum to continue in 2022, forecasting a wRC+ of 105, an OPS of .764 and an fWAR of 2.3 (+0.9 from 2021).