Blue Jays: The different stages of investing in the roster

Over the past few seasons we’ve witnessed various stages of investing in the roster for the Blue Jays, and the capping things off likely isn’t far away.

After the 2015 and 2016 playoff appearances by the last core group in Toronto, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins got to work on tearing things down and rebuilding from the ground up. They had the benefit of a foundational piece in a teenage phenom named Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who they could dream about building around, but things weren’t going to change overnight.

Having said that, it was pretty remarkable how quickly the Blue Jays went from a cellar dweller to a legitimate playoff contender. In 2017, the first real year of their rebuild, they finished 76-86, and followed that up by regressing even more at 73-89 in 2018, and 67-95 in 2019.

From there, things quickly got pretty exciting again during the shortened season in 2020 when they qualified for the expanded playoffs. There were big expectations last year as well, and the Charlie Montoyo led group mostly delivered by winning 91 games, but unfortunately it was one win short in the ultra-competitive American League, and specifically in the AL East.

Before the Blue Jays can move forward and take the next step toward returning to the World Series for the first time since the 90’s, let’s review the major steps that Atkins and the front office took in ultimately building the current roster, which projects to be one of the more dangerous teams in baseball once a new CBA gets hammered out and things can resume.

Here’s hoping that happens sooner than later, but for now let’s take a look back at the major investments that the Blue Jays have made, and what they’ve meant for the franchise.

The first big free agent move

After the Blue Jays finished 67-95 in 2019, I wasn’t sure whether the front office would actually invest in the roster or not. There was a lot of chatter about plenty of different free agents, but Blue Jays fans were used to hearing that sort of thing and missing out on the top-tier of players that were available.

And then they signed Hyun Jin Ryu to a four-year, 80 million dollar contract.

Don’t get me wrong, this wasn’t the mega-deal that the Yankees reached with Gerrit Cole the same offseason, but it was a significant step in the right direction for a young Blue Jays team. Ryu gave them a legitimate ace to front the rotation, which was important for a team that badly needed some stability on the pitching staff. He provided exactly that in his first season, and while he flamed out a bit in the second half last year, Ryu should still be a significant part of the rotation for at least the next two seasons.

Signing veteran southpaw did more than just help the pitching staff though. It also sent an important message to the young core in Toronto that this franchise intends to win again at some point, and investing in a piece of the puzzle was an important step, even if they didn’t project to compete in 2020. Ryu’s presence gave the roster more legitimacy in general, and showed future free agents that they’d be willing to spend as well.

Speaking of that angle, signing Ryu also helped improve a strained relationship with super-agent Scott Boras. Whether many of us want to admit it or not, Boras probably has the biggest impact on the game of anyone alive that’s not a player or a coach. He has always represented a significant portion of the premium free agents in baseball, and the present day is no exception. These days Boras speaks favourably about the Blue Jays, and unfortunately that actually matters.

Ryu alone wouldn’t change the fortunes of the Blue Jays, but he absolutely helped in a number of important ways.

An even bigger splash

I was very excited when the Blue Jays opened their chequebooks to bring Ryu to Toronto, and I believed Atkins and Shapiro when they talked about investing more heavily in the roster in the future. That said, I still needed to see it to truly believe it.

And then last offseason came and they honestly exceeded my expectations, especially at the time. Signing George Springer to a six-year, 150 million dollar contract was a huge development for a bunch of reasons, and we saw the kind of impact he can make when he’s healthy in 2021. Unfortunately it just didn’t happen often enough, but hopefully that will change in 2022 and beyond over the next five years of his deal.

The Blue Jays also spent pretty big to take a one-year upside gamble on Marcus Semien, paying him 18 million and asking him to switch to second base. The deal couldn’t have worked out much better for both parties, as the Blue Jays received a major bargain when Semien finished 3rd in AL MVP voting while winning a Silver Slugger and Golden Glove award, and the infielder ultimately received a new seven-year, 175 million dollar contract from Texas as the payoff for a career season.

While Springer didn’t make the impact that many hoped he would, mostly due to being held to just 78 games played around his various injuries, things had completely shifted in Toronto by last season. They saw major breakout performances from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who finished 2nd in AL MVP voting with an incredible season, and to a lesser extend with others like Bo Bichette, Alek Manoah, Teoscar Hernandez and others.

The long-term investment into Springer looks more than justified now that the Blue Jays have emerged as legitimate contenders in the AL East, and it was yet another significant step in the right direction.

Fast forward to this offseason, pre-lockout

As you’re more than likely aware, things have stalled to a complete halt with the MLB offseason due to the lockout. Until there is a new Collective Bargaining Agreement between the owners and the Player’s Association, it will stay that way too. There have been reports of positive movement in that direction, but it appears things are still a ways off.

The good news is the Blue Jays made some strong moves to improve their roster while they still could. The big free agent fish this time was Kevin Gausman, who agreed to a five-year, 110 million dollar pact. He’s an exciting addition, but also an important one after the Jays lost 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to the Seattle Mariners, and Semien signed his previously mentioned deal in Texas.

The other significant move was signing Jose Berrios to a seven-year, 131 million dollar contract extension, which will keep him in a Blue Jays uniform until after the 2028 season. At just 27 years old the Blue Jays should get the prime of the talented right-hander’s career, and he’s already an excellent starting pitcher. Pairing him with Gausman, and having the luxury of Ryu and Alek Manoah to fill out the top four gives them one of the better rotations in baseball, at least on paper.

These big-money contracts are the type that the Blue Jays have historically shied away from, so as a long-time fan of the team it’s still a bit tough to wrap my head around what we’ve seen over the last few years. Between Ryu, Springer, Gausman, and Berrios we’re talking about 471 million dollars committed to four players, and that’s not even discussing the other notable investments they’ve made during this rebuild.

And I sincerely doubt they’re done either.