Four Blue Jays named to Baseball Prospectus Top 101

Baseball Prospectus released their 2022 top 101 prospects list on January 20 and four prominent Blue Jays’ prospects made the cut: catcher Gabriel Moreno, infielders Jordan Groshans and Orelvis Martinez, and long-acclaimed pitcher Nate Pearson.

The Blue Jays traded away two key prospects last year in Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, certainly a high price to pay for Jose Berrios, but one that needed to be made nonetheless. Martin was MLB.com’s Number 22 overall prospect and the Blue Jays second overall, while Woods Richardson was Number 87 and the Jays’ number four. The trade dropped the Blue Jays overall farm rankings (via MLB.com) from Number 7 at the start of 2021 to Number 14 after the Trade Deadline. However, despite those departures – not seeing Martin in a Blue Jays jersey one day was especially hard to stomach – the club still has a lot of promising young players and a lot to look forward to. Don’t forget, this is already a good team and one that should compete for a playoff spot in 2022.

Much has been written about these guys this past year – I think the Twitter fanbase, in particular, fell in love with Moreno in 2021 – but let’s summarize the 2021 campaign of each player and look ahead to what 2022 may have in store.

Number 73: Nate Pearson

Ah, Nate Pearson, the man a few years ago that was heralded as the Blue Jays’ “next Roy Halladay”.  Like many prospects before him, Pearson has seen his stock take a hit due to recurring injuries, both in the minors and at the major-league level. Once regarded as one of the most promising up-and-comers in baseball, Pearson now finds himself needing to have some luck on his side in order to keep his career on track.

Pearson was drafted in 2017 and has impressed with his arm strength and velocity. Lighting up a major-league radar gun with three digits is not easily done. In 33 career innings, Pearson has struck out 36 in 33 games, although he has also walked 25. In some ways, he reminded me of former Blue Jay Dustin McGowan, a guy who you really rooted for to be successful. McGowan had such potential with his pitches but certainly struggled in other areas as a starting pitcher. Ultimately, he did find some success as a reliever. Not all top prospects meet what is expected of them early in their career. There are too many variables.

The important thing to remember here is that Pearson has pitched less than 200 innings combined in the majors and minors. In November, the Florida native underwent sports hernia surgery and is expected to be ready for Spring Training to compete for a spot in the starting rotation. The injury is the latest setback for the 25-year-old, which have included a fractured ulna in his pitching arm a few years back. Fangraphs has projected Pearson to throw 99 innings in 2022 and regardless of results, that’s at least a step in the right direction. If Pearson just focuses on staying healthy, his pitches should speak for themselves. He’ll be fine.

Number 60: Jordan Groshans

Sliding into the list just two spots ahead of Martinez is infielder Jordan Groshans. The Texas native was drafted one year after Pearson but out of high school, so he is just 22 years old today. Groshans has been in varied spots on the prospect lists the last few years, but this is his lowest ranking on the Baseball Prospectus list.

Groshans put together a nice 2021 solely with AA New Hampshire, posting a .291/.367/.450 line in 75 games before missing time with an injury.

Groshans has all the raw ingredients to become a plus hitter with plus game power. The ball jumps off his right-handed bat because he combines a balanced swing with plus bat speed and a knack for barreling the baseball. He consistently hits hard line drives with backspin carry to all fields, has no problem turning around quality velocity and employs an approach that’s advanced for his age. – MLB.com scouting report on Groshans

The talk of Groshans becoming the Blue Jays’ third baseman of the future has increased as the team looks to find a solid answer at the position. Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal and company aren’t the answer and the Blue Jays’ attempts at acquiring Jose Ramirez didn’t materialize in 2021 and aren’t likely to. Groshans has spent nearly twice as many innings at shortstop than third base, and with better early results, but profiles well as a future third baseman nonetheless.

A quick Twitter search will result in tons of Groshan hits in fans’ trade packages for the likes of Ramirez, Matt Chapman, Ke’Bryan Hayes and more. However, a trade for any star third baseman seems unlikely at this point and the Blue Jays seem content to see what internal options materialize for the position. Groshans should see time at Triple-A Buffalo and pending how things go with the big-league third-base options and how Groshans’ own season plays out, he could find himself at the major-league level at some point in 2022. Whether that would be at shortstop – currently maintained by Bo Bichette – or third base remains to be seen. The rest is up to Groshans.

Number 22: Gabriel Moreno

21-year old Venezuelan Gabriel Moreno is all the talk of the Blue Jays fanbase this past year. The Jays’ number one prospect burst onto the scene in a big way in 2021, despite a thumb fracture injury that derailed a few months of his season. The Blue Jays have had a few “catchers of the future” of late, namely in Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and even Reese McGuire but Moreno appears to be for real.

Moreno was signed five years ago as an international free agent and as such has had a lot of time to develop. The catcher has played in 191 minor-league games and has posted a combined .857 OPS. He has hit at every level, but before his injury this year, he was hitting everything. In 32 games, Moreno hit .373/.441/.651 to a tune of a monster 1.092 OPS. Perhaps more incredible, he returned from his injury and took part in the Arizona Fall League, where he continued to slug, hitting .329 in 100 plate appearances, with a .904 OPS and drove in 18 runs in 22 games.

2022 projects to be a huge year for Moreno and should he stay healthy, he could also be in Toronto at some point this season. If 2021 was any indication, he will soon enter Vladimir Gurerro Jr.-level hype.

However, the Blue Jays do have three catchers currently on their roster, barring any trades once those are allowed again, and Moreno shouldn’t be rushed until he is ready both offensively and defensively. By the looks of it, that should be soon, but again, let’s not let the dream of a catcher hitting over .200 full-time cloud our vision of Moreno being fully developed before arriving on the scene for good. Triple-A Buffalo could play a key role in rounding out the young catcher. No matter when he gets here, it will certainly be fun to watch his whole journey.