Toronto Blue Jays: Ideas and Trade Partners for Randal Grichuk

Prior to the 2018 season, the Toronto Blue Jays acquired OF Randal Grichuk, for RHP Dominic Leone and pitching prospect Conner Greene.  The former Angels 1st round pick was immediately given an every-day role with a then-rebuilding Blue Jays team.

After swatting 25 dingers and a 107 OPS+ in his first season as a Blue Jay, one week into the 2019 season – with two years still left of control – he was rewarded a five year, $52 million extension. This was only hours after the Jays traded away their defensive highlight reel man, CF Kevin Pillar, solidifying Grichuk as a piece of the future.  At the time it made sense as the Blue Jays had aspirations to contend in the near future (and plenty of payroll room) and not much for promising outfield prospects (Anthony Alford and Jonathan Davis among them, but both no longer with organization).

With the Blue Jays no longer in rebuild mode and now striving for playoff/World Series contention, it is clearly stated over the last year how many fans want Grichuk’s contract gone due to the flaws in his game – GIDP machine, very streaky hitter, when he’s on a cold streak, he’s COLD.  However, and to be fair, if we’re going to point out the flaws, the positives need to be made as well.  He lead the Blue Jays in home runs and RBI over the 2019-2020 seasons combined.  When George Springer went down with an injury at the start of last season, he filled the needed CF role on both sides of the ball, and from April thru June, he had 14 HR and a wRC+ of 102, proving to be a viable replacement (though the same stat rest of the season was a very poor 62).  Although he’s definitely not top of the lineup hitter, he has played whatever role needed by this organization during his tenure.

Entering the 2022 season, Grichuk is still owed $10.333-mil in each of the next two years according to Spotrac.  It is not a great contract, but there are worse currently out there across the league.  All that said, while there is still value to the Jays due to his ability to play CF if Springer were to go down again – it may be better to reallocate that money to fill another need if there is a trade partner out there.

Just because a player brings a certain value to one team, doesn’t mean the same for others.  Especially when you are talking about potential contract swaps – though they could go the route of dumping him and including a prospect to minimize the amount eaten, but I wouldn’t expect that – and actually think Grichuk is worth more than that. The Jays need a trade partner who has a need for an average OF (100 OPS+ last 4 years), that can capably play CF, while adding some pop.  A team that also would like to either shed payroll or reallocate a contract of their own to their outfield.

Here are a few potential suitors:

Philadelphia Phillies

Back in October, Phillies President Dave Dombrowski was open about the shortstop position not guaranteed to be‘ for the 2022 season.  After a rough season on both sides of the ball and the Phillies’ motivation to make a playoff push (hence why they brought in Dombrowski), it is fair for them to keep options open at the important position.

If the Phillies choose to go another route at SS, mixed with Alec Bohm penciled in as the 3B, Gregorius could find himself on the outside looking in.  Yes, Jose Ramirez is on top of the wish list for 3B.  No, this doesn’t mean Didi is better suited than him either.  But, even if Ross Atkins himself was certain a deal will get done for JRam, he’d be foolish to not entertain other ways to upgrade 3B as a position to reallocate the Grichuk contract, if possible.

Entering his age 32 season, Gregorius is coming off a very poor and below-his-standards year with a .639 OPS, and is in his final year under contract for $15.25-mil, plus $1.5 mil in deferred money as per Spotrac.com.

He may not have the type of pop you would hope from a corner position, but he provides an upgrade on defence with capability to play SS and 3B, a left-handed bat to balance out the offence and comes with five years experience playing in the AL East.  While he is coming off a rough 2021 season, from 2018-2020 he had an OPS+ of 112, if he can regain that form he would be an upgrade on offence as well.

I’m not sure how specifics would go here, but one would imagine either some cash or someone the Jays can plug into their pen or minor league pitching depth would also be coming their way.  A deal for Gregorius wouldn’t hurt the payroll by preventing any other moves given only one year left, and this would temporarily solve the need for a 3B, and still enables the Jays to use free agency and prospect capital to address other needs.

Arizona Diamondbacks

With the Giants coming off a NL West title and having lots of payroll flexibility, the Dodgers being the Dodgers, and the Padres being competitive, the D-Backs will pretty much be battling with the Rockies to stay out of the basement.  It will be interesting which direction this organization chooses, so here we are.

Though he’s only entering his age-32 season, LHP Madison Bumgarner comes with a lot of miles on his arm, recent injuries, a contract two years in proving to be a bust, and a few years past his old self.  He is owed $60-million over the next three years, with only $14-mil of that owed in his final year.  Another key factor is that he has a 5-team no trade list.

He’s built like a workhorse so he can still give you innings (over 200 as recent as 2019).  Though over the last three seasons his ERA has been just over a run higher than his career average (4.46 vs 3.31), his BB/9 and K/9 have been close to on par with his career, showing his issues aren’t with his control.  Per Fangraphs, over the last couple years his fly ball rate has increased from his career average, while ground balls have decreased.  Right away that doesn’t bode well for the Roger Centre or other AL East parks.

It isn’t fair to expect him to revert back to his old self during his multiple World Series Championships, but maybe the Pete Walker effect could make him a viable option in the rotation.

When comparing his and Grichuk’s contract, in no way would the Jays do a one-for-one.  That’s where the DBacks could potentially line up like the Reds, where there are several players involved and the Jays fill multiple needs.  This could open the door for the addition of Ketel Marte, who is on a team-friendly contract with 3/$30-million remaining – so it wouldn’t be easy for them to part with that talent and contract.  That said, in such a deal there would still be other pieces going to Arizona, but the Bumgarner contract will minimize it.

Between the three key major leaguers, the two teams would be swapping ~ $70-million in payroll over next three years – D-Backs trading away $90-mil and Blue Jays trading away ~ $21-mil – which the Jays can afford and fill needed holes, and the D-Backs shed payroll assisting in a quicker rebuild to get back to competing in their division.