Toronto Blue Jays: Ideas and Trade Partners for Randal Grichuk

Prior to the 2018 season, the Toronto Blue Jays acquired OF Randal Grichuk, for RHP Dominic Leone and pitching prospect Conner Greene.  The former Angels 1st round pick was immediately given an every-day role with a then-rebuilding Blue Jays team.

After swatting 25 dingers and a 107 OPS+ in his first season as a Blue Jay, one week into the 2019 season – with two years still left of control – he was rewarded a five year, $52 million extension. This was only hours after the Jays traded away their defensive highlight reel man, CF Kevin Pillar, solidifying Grichuk as a piece of the future.  At the time it made sense as the Blue Jays had aspirations to contend in the near future (and plenty of payroll room) and not much for promising outfield prospects (Anthony Alford and Jonathan Davis among them, but both no longer with organization).

With the Blue Jays no longer in rebuild mode and now striving for playoff/World Series contention, it is clearly stated over the last year how many fans want Grichuk’s contract gone due to the flaws in his game – GIDP machine, very streaky hitter, when he’s on a cold streak, he’s COLD.  However, and to be fair, if we’re going to point out the flaws, the positives need to be made as well.  He lead the Blue Jays in home runs and RBI over the 2019-2020 seasons combined.  When George Springer went down with an injury at the start of last season, he filled the needed CF role on both sides of the ball, and from April thru June, he had 14 HR and a wRC+ of 102, proving to be a viable replacement (though the same stat rest of the season was a very poor 62).  Although he’s definitely not top of the lineup hitter, he has played whatever role needed by this organization during his tenure.

Entering the 2022 season, Grichuk is still owed $10.333-mil in each of the next two years according to Spotrac.  It is not a great contract, but there are worse currently out there across the league.  All that said, while there is still value to the Jays due to his ability to play CF if Springer were to go down again – it may be better to reallocate that money to fill another need if there is a trade partner out there.

Just because a player brings a certain value to one team, doesn’t mean the same for others.  Especially when you are talking about potential contract swaps – though they could go the route of dumping him and including a prospect to minimize the amount eaten, but I wouldn’t expect that – and actually think Grichuk is worth more than that. The Jays need a trade partner who has a need for an average OF (100 OPS+ last 4 years), that can capably play CF, while adding some pop.  A team that also would like to either shed payroll or reallocate a contract of their own to their outfield.

Here are a few potential suitors:

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have been rumoured to be sellers this off-season and can go many ways about it as they have both attractable pitching and contracts they could look to move.  Whether they look to tie those players together to attract a partner or conduct trades separately remains to be seen.

They have two contracts that come to mind that they may be looking to move.  Eugenio Suarez, 30, is guaranteed ~$36-mil over the next three years including his $2-mil 4th year buyout, and Mike Moustakas, 33, is guaranteed $34-mil over the next two years including his $4-mil 3rd year buyout.

We have no idea what the Reds’ intentions are, and even when a team looks to shed payroll or go through a minor rebuild, they are still a big league team and one would hope they would be interested in fielding a competitive roster.  With the departure of Nick Castellanos – who opted out of his contract – the Reds could look to replace that bat.  While Grichuk is no Castellanos, he could certainly fill that void for a corner OF with pop.

Both Suarez and Moustakas seem appealing as they both play 3B.  The former is a RH hitter who strikes out a lot but provides the stereotypical needed 3B power – three seasons of 30+ HR, including 49 in 2019 – while the latter is a World Series champion who brings some power of his own with 71 HR from 2018-2020, along with a 110 OPS+ during that duration, all the while balancing the lineup with his LH bat.

If the Blue Jays and Reds have mutual interest in such a trade, I feel this one could consist more along the lines of a multi-player deal with more pieces going in both directions.  However this would play out, such move would require the Jays to spend more of their available funds and dedicating to the hot corner for multiple years (depending on the player and if option is picked up).  Maybe by working out a deal that includes one of the Reds’ SP could entice the financial commitment in this scenario by solving multiple off-season needs.

Arizona Diamondbacks

With the Giants coming off a NL West title and having lots of payroll flexibility, the Dodgers being the Dodgers, and the Padres being competitive, the D-Backs will pretty much be battling with the Rockies to stay out of the basement.  It will be interesting which direction this organization chooses, so here we are.

Though he’s only entering his age-32 season, LHP Madison Bumgarner comes with a lot of miles on his arm, recent injuries, a contract two years in proving to be a bust, and a few years past his old self.  He is owed $60-million over the next three years, with only $14-mil of that owed in his final year.  Another key factor is that he has a 5-team no trade list.

He’s built like a workhorse so he can still give you innings (over 200 as recent as 2019).  Though over the last three seasons his ERA has been just over a run higher than his career average (4.46 vs 3.31), his BB/9 and K/9 have been close to on par with his career, showing his issues aren’t with his control.  Per Fangraphs, over the last couple years his fly ball rate has increased from his career average, while ground balls have decreased.  Right away that doesn’t bode well for the Roger Centre or other AL East parks.

It isn’t fair to expect him to revert back to his old self during his multiple World Series Championships, but maybe the Pete Walker effect could make him a viable option in the rotation.

When comparing his and Grichuk’s contract, in no way would the Jays do a one-for-one.  That’s where the DBacks could potentially line up like the Reds, where there are several players involved and the Jays fill multiple needs.  This could open the door for the addition of Ketel Marte, who is on a team-friendly contract with 3/$30-million remaining – so it wouldn’t be easy for them to part with that talent and contract.  That said, in such a deal there would still be other pieces going to Arizona, but the Bumgarner contract will minimize it.

Between the three key major leaguers, the two teams would be swapping ~ $70-million in payroll over next three years – D-Backs trading away $90-mil and Blue Jays trading away ~ $21-mil – which the Jays can afford and fill needed holes, and the D-Backs shed payroll assisting in a quicker rebuild to get back to competing in their division.