Five Reasons the Blue Jays Should be OUT on Bryant, Correa, and Story

1. The Looming Extensions of Vlad and Bo

MLB Trade Rumours recently projected the following contract costs, based on current market conditions and other factors:

• Carlos Correa (age 27): 10 years / $320m
• Kris Bryant (age 30): 6 years / $160m
• Trevor Story (age 29): 6 years / $125m

Team president Mark Shapiro said earlier this winter that he’s not anticipating a payroll that exceeds baseball’s competitive balance tax. With recent signings, Toronto’s 2022 payroll commitments currently sit in the $160m range, and the (pre-lockout) competitive balance tax threshold is set at $210 million. But in addition to existing payroll commitments, there are two other significant variables to consider: the potential contract extensions of Vladdy Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

The Blue Jays know that the more faith they show and risk they assume early, the more likely it is that they will be able to sign the two to longer-term deals.  The question is – what is the sample size that the Jays organization needs to be comfortable with that risk? Fernando Tatis Jr. had shown enough, in the eyes of Padres management, after only 143 Major League games, for the club to assume a $330m risk.

Pressure is on the ’22 Blue Jays to acquire one of the big-ticket free-agent infielders remaining on the market. Here are 5 reasons they should not do so.

Recent contract extension for players with less than one full season of MLB service time:

• Tatis Jr., Padres: at age 22, having played 143 MLB games, signed for 14 years / $330m
• Ronald Acuna, Braves: at age 21, having played 116 MLB games, signed for 8 yrs / $100 m
• Wander Franco, Rays: at age 19, having played 70 MLB games, signed for 12 years / $223 m

Also informative is the situation of Juan Soto of the Nationals who, at 22 years old, is currently projected to receive a 15-year, $503 million extension in the coming months.

At this point, the expectation is that each of Vlad and Bo’s potential extensions would surpass the Tatis range, and likely approach the Soto projected terms. What is less clear is when such steps will be taken by the Blue Jays, particularly given the uncertainties added by the current labour negotiations and the impact of the pandemic on club revenues.

Presumably, the prospect of buying out the arbitration years of Bo and Vlad has been factored into the Jays’ decision-making process for the potential addition of one of these large commitment-free agent pieces. The organization has invested heavily in terms of time, draft picks, and player development resources on several infielders who may actually provide comparable production, while holding potentially greater promise long term. Leveraging team-friendly contracts would of course afford Toronto far greater flexibility to extend not only Bo and Vlad but also to lock up Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Guerriel Jr.– both eligible for free agency in 2024.