Who should be the Blue Jays Opening Day starter for the 2022 season?

The Toronto Blue Jays open the 2022 season on the road in Baltimore to face the Orioles on March 31st for a three-game series before returning to home soil (hopefully) for the Home Opener against the Tampa Bay Rays on April 4th.

Looking at the Blue Jays roster, there are at least four solid locks for the rotation come late March: Hyun Jin Ryu, Alek Manoah, Jose Berrios, and offseason acquisition Kevin Gausman. There are a few pros and cons as to why each player should get the nod to start Opening Day in Baltimore, so let’s take a look.

Hyun Jin Ryu

The Blue Jays prize signing during the 2019/2020 offseason, Hyun Jin Ryu will enter the 2022 campaign on the heels of a year that was marred by injury and some inconsistency on the mound. Ryu was excellent in his debut season with the Blue Jays, finishing with a 2.69 ERA through 12 starts during the COVID condensed season but stepped back during his second year, posting a 4.38 ERA through 31 starts with a 7.6 K/9. The 31 starts is actually a career-high for Ryu but he was limited to just 169.0 innings due to the two separate IL stints.

Ryu made the Opening Day start for the Blue Jays back in 2019 against the Tampa Bay Rays, going 4.2 innings and giving up three earned runs, three walks, and four hits with four strikeouts. He earned a no-decision in the contest as he didn’t go deep enough into the game, with Jordan Romano earning the win after following Ryu, pitching a clean inning. In terms of an Opening Day starter, Ryu also took the mound for the first game of the 2019 season for the Dodgers (six innings, one earned run with eight strikeouts against the Diamondbacks) and is one of the more veteran arms on the roster.

The Blue Jays have two off-days within the first week of the season, one right after Opening Day and then the following Friday, so they could start Ryu in Baltimore for the first game and have him get an additional day of rest before his next start late in the Tampa Bay series.

Alek Manoah

Making his big league debut for the Blue Jays last season, Alek Manoah was solid in his rookie season and was one of the biggest surprises coming into the season. Riding a hot streak from Spring Training and through three starts in AAA, Manoah joined the Jays and finished the year with a 3.22 ERA through 20 starts, racking up a 10.2 K/9 and a 1.049 WHIP on his way to 111.2 innings pitched.

Fangraphs Steamer projection for Manoah in 2022 has the right-hander starting 26 games with 162 strikeouts and a 4.06 ERA through 147.0 innings pitched. This would be a step back for the Florida product who had an excellent 2021 campaign but Manoah could prove any doubters wrong by continuing to pitch well in his sophomore campaign.

Manoah would be an interesting name to start Opening Day for the Blue Jays this season. He isn’t necessarily the most popular figure in “Charm City”, starting a fracas after hitting Maikel Franco with an inside pitch on June 19th that had the Orioles up in arms and lead to Manoah being ejected from the game and subsequently suspended. While it isn’t a guarantee that Orioles fans will remember the incident in question, an electric Manoah could provide some great fun in Baltimore if he continues his rookie campaign dominance this year.

The right-hander is also no stranger to the big games, making his debut against the New York Yankees at their home barn and going six strong innings without allowing an earned run with seven strikeouts. He also went seven strong against Baltimore at the tail end of the 2021 campaign when the Jays playoff hopes were on the line, proving to the Blue Jays that he could be trusted in do-or-die scenarios.

Manoah is made for the big moments. Why not let him start Opening Day?

Kevin Gausman

The Blue Jays’ newest prized acquisition, Kevin Gausman takes his talents back to the AL East since being a first-round pick of the Baltimore Orioles back in 2012. A member of the Orioles for almost six seasons, Gausman would be traded to the Atlanta Braves before bouncing around to the San Francisco Giants in 2020, where he practically resurrected his career.

Owning a 4.22 ERA with the Orioles, Gausman spent two seasons with the Giants and became one of their top arms, pitching to a 3.00 through 45 appearances with 306 strikeouts and a 1.057 WHIP. In the Bay Area, Gausman posted a 2.4 BB/9 and a 10.9 K/9 and was one of the Blue Jays offseason targets last winter before he signed the Giants qualifying offer.

The move paid off for the Colorado product as the Jays initial offer of a three-year deal worth roughly $40 million turned into a five-year $110 million commitment that now creates one of the strongest rotations in the American League East. At the Rogers Centre, Gausman owns a 3.83 ERA through 12 outings (nine starts) with a 1.389 WHIP through 54.0 innings.

Gausman has two Opening Day starts, 2017 with Baltimore and 2021 with San Francisco:

2021: 6.2 IP; 2 hits; 1 ER; 2 BB; 6 K; 0 HR @ Seattle Mariners

2017: 5.1 IP; 5 hits; 2 ER; 4 BB; 4 SO; 0 HR vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays putting Gausman out for Opening Day makes a lot of sense since he is the biggest signing of the offseason (so far) and is coming off a strong two years with the Giants. Having him come out and start against Baltimore, where he spent six seasons, would also be a treat to watch as the fans start to get used to the new and improved pitcher over the next five seasons.

On the flip side, while having Gausman start the year against Baltimore would be fun to watch, having him also start the Home Opener against Tampa Bay on the following Monday (fourth starter in this scenario) would create a very raucous Rogers Centre atmosphere, that is, if the club begins the year in Toronto (all signs are pointing to it but you never know with COVID).

While the move would not make the most sense in terms of putting your top pitchers at the head of the rotation, saving Gausman for a tougher Rays squad instead of throwing him out against Baltimore could make sense considering every win is important over the course of a full season.

A strong contender for Opening Day.