Blue Jays tried to sign Corey Seager? What does that mean?

The upside of hearing the Jays were in on Seager

As I’ve already said, I was more than a little surprised to hear Passan’s report. It wasn’t a shock at all when Passan also indicated that the Blue Jays were interested in Noah Syndergaard, because I didn’t think he would sign any more than a one or two year contract. Seager’s market was never going to work out like that, even if he was injured for part of the 2021 campaign.

The biggest reason I’m surprised is because the Blue Jays have several long-term commitments to consider already, and I didn’t think they’d be willing to take on a contract of more than 30 million per season, especially for a decade-long term. They have Jose Berrios under contract for seven more years at up to 20 million per season, Kevin Gausman’s fresh 5-year pact at an annual average value of 22 million, and five more years of George Springer for a 25 million AAV. When you look at the young stars that are going to receive big raises over the next few years such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez and more, I was pleased to see them sign a player like Gausman let alone entertain something like Seager.

It’s possible the Blue Jays just felt that Seager was “the one” free agent that they had to have, but I don’t know that I see that as the case. It shows that the front office is really willing to open the chequebooks in a significant way for the right player, and there are still several stars available in free agency whenever the lockout comes to an end. That list includes Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, or Kris Bryant if they still want a premium infielder, and it could mean that the rumours of their interest in Freddie Freeman are legitimate. As much as I would LOVE Freeman’s bat in the Blue Jays’ lineup, it’s hard to see how he fits with Vlad Jr. already at first base. Yes they could split time there and as the designated hitter, but they’re going to want to use the DH spot to keep other players fresh as well.

Whatever direction Ross Atkins and his front office team ultimately decide to go, it doesn’t sound like money is going to get in the way of an option that they really like. That makes dreaming about the return of the offseason all that much more fun for Blue Jays fans, as it’s clear that they’re not done shopping after signing Gausman and Yimi Garcia to free agent deals. Whether that means another significant free agent, a big trade, or maybe even both, I expect the Jays will be in the mix for several of the stars that could still be available.

The downside of hearing the Jays were in on Seager

Even before I write this, I know that some of you aren’t going to be happy with me for what I’m about to say. However, I can’t help but think about both the “glass half full” and “half empty” scenarios, and I think there might be one to examine here.

If the Blue Jays were seriously in on Corey Seager, how would that have impacted Bo Bichette?

When the Jays signed Marcus Semien last season they did so on the condition that he would move to second base so Bichette could stay at his preferred position as the shortstop. It’s possible the Jays would have given the same condition to Seager, but I don’t know that he would have been agreeable to such a thing. Early reports are that Seager will play shortstop for the Rangers, and Marcus Semien will once again be asked to play second base. Semien signed his own seven-year, 175 million dollar contract in Texas, so I’m sure he’s fine with continuing to make that concession.

As for the Jays, they obviously could have found a way to fit both Bichette and Seager into their lineup. One of them could moved to either second or third base, and Seager’s left-handed bat would have brought some welcome balance among a group of dangerous right-handed hitters. I’m willing to bet that would have been the short-term plan, but I can’t help but wonder if they didn’t have other thoughts in the back of their heads.

Earlier today I was thinking to myself, if the Blue Jays were to make a Pat Gillick-esque super-trade today, who would be involved? Gillick was famous in Blue Jays circles for the famed gutsy swap with the Padres that brought Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter to Toronto in exchange for Fred McGriff and Tony Hernandez. It was a gamble for the Jays at the time, but it obviously worked out in the end when they won back to back championships in 1992 and 1993. That’s obviously my favourite part of the story, but a close second would be that Gillick’s wife was mad at him for making the trade.

Having said all that, could Bo Bichette have been involved in a blockbuster trade? It seems like the stuff of fantasy, but stay with me for a minute here. Again, I’ve already said that I think the plan would have been to have both on the team, as the Jays obviously have a need in the infield, But what if, just what if the Jays were planning on making a fall-out-of-your-chair offer to Cleveland for Jose Ramirez AND a premium starting pitching like Shane Bieber? I know, I know, that’s bonkers to even think about and I’m probably out of my mind here, but a 10-year commitment to Seager (or something close to that) had me going down that path.

I say that because eventually both Vlad Jr. and Bichette are also going to require 20, 30, or maybe even 40 million per year when they reach the point of free agency. For the sake of simple math, let’s say they were each making 30 million by 2025, for a total of 60 million for the duo. On top of that they would still owe roughly 20 million for Berrios, 22 million for Gausman, and 25 million for Springer. That takes the total to 127 million, and that’s just for five players. Adding Seager’s current contract to the mix would have put them just shy of 160 million for six players, and that’s a tough place to be in when trying to fill out the rest of the roster.

Having said all of that, I do believe that the Jays will both spend serious money to upgrade the roster this offseason, and make a sincere effort to extend both Vlad Jr. and Bichette as soon as they can. I’m just not sure how they could have done that with a 10-year commitment to Seager, and still kept both of their foundational young superstars as well.

What I think we can glean from their recent development

So far I’ve taken you through the two more extreme scenarios, and now I’d like to make some predictions for the rest of the offseason. I’ll admit that I’m a lot more optimistic about how aggressive the Jays will be after Passan broke the news about their involvement with Corey Seager, and that also makes me more excited for what’s to come.

Having said that, I am not of the belief that they’ll be seriously players in the Carlos Correa sweepstakes. There’s an argument that he’s an even better player than Seager, but he’s also going to command just as much or possibly even more when he signs his next deal. For all reasons I shared before about the “downside”, I have a hard time seeing the Jays apply the same thinking to both players.

That said, I would not be shocked at all if they checked in with Trevor Story’s camp, especially if they believe they can sign him to five or six year contract, or even something shorter. The hype behind Story isn’t near as high as it is for Correa or Seager, but he’s been a premium performer for the Colorado Rockies for a long time, and should still have a solid market for his services. I don’t think the Jays will go overboard to bring him in, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they kept a close eye on his market.

I’ll say the same for a player like Kris Bryant, who is probably a more feasible candidate to join the Jays. He’s been more of an outfielder recently, but he has a long resume as a third baseman and could certainly fill that current hole in the Blue Jays’ infield. With his ability to play the outfield as well, he could always transition to a corner spot once some of the other Blue Jays top infield prospects graduate to the big leagues.

Speaking of those top prospects, I still think the Jays could be serious players in the trade market, but that’s now become a lot more difficult path to pursue. I say that because we don’t know when the lockout will end, and if things remain stalled into the spring then it’s possible there will be a very limited window for teams to finish their roster building before the regular season gets underway. The Jays can’t negotiate with free agents during the lockout, but they can’t make trades either, and the latter generally takes more time to come together.

The truly encouraging part is that it looks like the Blue Jays days of being reluctant spenders are clearly in the rearview mirror. They’ve spent big the last three offseasons in a row, and it’s entirely possible that they’re not done adding to the payroll for 2022 and beyond. It remains to be seen how they’ll finish off their roster build, but I’m very excited to see what Ross Atkins and company can do, and I think you should be too.