Toronto Blue Jays: Looking at Extensions For Their Core

Let’s get two things straight right off the bat: One, the hope for Blue Jays fans and management is to keep Guerrero Jr., Bichette, and Hernandez in a Jays uniform a long time, and two, I am in no way advocating to trade either of them.

It will never only be about whether these players believe in the direction of this organization, or do they enjoy playing in front of an entire country, or whether ownership will put the money where their mouth is. There are many factors at play, and so as long as they are not extended, those factors will change along the way – for better or worse.

What do you do when you ask someone out and they say no? You either move on or keep being persistent.  However, sometimes persistence is not enough, and eventually, it is time to move on.

We have no idea what sort of behind-the-scenes conversations have taken place over the last couple of years between management and their representatives. Has ownership made formal offers?  Have the players’ representatives expressed interest in an extension?  If so, what are their terms? Have they told the Jays they prefer to wait until free agency? There is, however, one clear thing we know: though they have not signed (yet), they can be in a Blue Jays uniform for 4 more seasons – 2 for Hernandez & Gurriel – (granted no change in new CBA). Also, while the cost may go up as time goes by, it is not necessarily a pressing issue as time is on their side.

Fans rightfully want management to continue adding to this team, and due to their financial flexibility, this organization can do just that. While adding short-term deals will definitely assist the long-term plan, the goal is to bring a championship back to the city of Toronto and sometimes decisions take you out of your comfort zone.

Management’s course of action over the next year or so maybe tell whether they will extend all of Vladdy, Bo, Hernandez, and even Gurriel.  Because here is the hard truth: the odds are not in their favour to retain all of them long-term while continuously adding along the way, so difficult choices will be made.  Doable, but not easy.  I often say they need to be creative with adding new players to multi-year deals, but sometimes, for certain talent, creativity is not an option, but rather having to bite the bullet and give the player what they want if you really want to add them to this core.  That is why if they add another impact, high-priced player long-term – which is probably their next big decision – it helps today but presents tough decisions tomorrow – and fans need to realize tough decisions are not necessarily bad problems.

In the 2024-2025 seasons, Jays have ~ $66-mil in guaranteed contracts allocated to Springer, Gausman, and Berrios, so plenty of room to add – and yes I know, why do we care about 2025? When looking to sign multiple players to upper-scale contracts, you must think about both the present and future.  It is also fair to add another mid-high priced player in this mix, along with current cheaper players going through arbitration that will increase that payroll number significantly.

What do extensions for Guerrero, Bichette & Hernandez look like with the Toronto Blue Jays?

A couple of young stars in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Wander Franco recently signed extensions for 14/$340 and 11/$182, respectively. I think Tatis’ AAV is a rough starting point for Vlad and Bo, but the term is what negotiations will come down to – and the term length will dictate a decrease/increase in that AAV.

For argument’s sake, I’ll lean towards the lower end of the AAV to sign these players (given continued production), though I believe it’ll cost north of this as a total package. Hernandez ($15 mil) and Vladdy & Bo ($50 mil combined) could cost at minimum $65 mil per year. That is low-balling what would be roughly $130 million in guaranteed contracts for 6 players – though two of them at the tail-end of their contracts – and does not include Gurriel.  Add in the raises, arbitration, and other players they add along the way, suddenly you’re creeping into unfamiliar payroll territory.  By this formula, the Blue Jays would most likely need to heavily backload a couple of those deals and also need a good number of cheap players contributing – which stresses the importance of the farm system.

If both sides cannot come to an agreement or if one side is simply comfortable waiting a couple of years, then so be it.  But, if that is the case, Atkins cannot hold off on pulling the trigger on adding other players that make this team a World Series contender today because it can hinder possibly extending current players tomorrow.  The game of baseball does not wait for anybody, it keeps moving forward and it is business as usual.  You then take the approach of, at least they are contributing factors on this team for below market value while we control them, so we do not need to hash out a deal right now.  And if in the end, a trade or two needs to be made to keep this train moving, then it is what it is if, in the end, the result is a World Series.

No decisions prior to winning a World Series are considered a bad one

The goal a few years from now should still be a winning culture with a solid core intact which now includes Berrios & Gausman. If by then there is still no extension(s) and they feel for whatever reason it will not get done with one or all, you want the team to be built and positioned that:

A) you’re completely comfortable keeping them for max control and letting them explore free agency without getting anything in return (well, your return is their production while you have them),

or

B) you sell high and fix a need for whatever positional hole you have at the time.

Every signing has its own scenario, so some get locked up for most of their careers and some look like franchise players who win you a World Series (see Freddie Freeman) but their future with the same team is in limbo.  It is a wait-and-see at this point.  I do think if Hernandez signs an extension first, it could possibly mean they are only keeping one of Vlad and Bo. However, the way I see it, rather than wondering the when, why, and how on their long-term future, let’s just enjoy watching them in a Blue Jays uniform while we can – hopefully it’s beyond their current controllable years and a World Series is won while they are here.