Blue Jays Winter Checklist: What else do they need?

After signing Kevin Gausman and Yimi Garcia over the last day or so, what else do the Blue Jays need to complete their offseason checklist?

It’s a huge development that they were able to replace Robbie Ray at the top of their rotation by agreeing to a five year, 110 million dollar contract with Gausman. You can debate over which pitcher would have been the better choice, but there was always the possibility that the Jays ended up with neither. Thankfully they have another ace-calibre arm to pair with Jose Berrios at the top of the rotation.

Now that they’ve managed to take care of one major offseason need, and also agreed to a two-year contract with Yimi Garcia to boost the bullpen, what else do the Blue Jays need to do to complete their winter work? We know that it won’t be a storybook ending now that Marcus Semien has agreed to a seven year contract with the Texas Rangers, and even with the Gausman deal and the Berrios extension, there is a lot of work to be done to help the Blue Jays become legitimate World Series contenders.

That said, I feel like Jays fans should be thrilled with the work of Ross Atkins and the front office team in Toronto, and there should be a fair bit of excitement about the moves that have yet to be made. It’s clear that the Blue Jays mean business, and that means that there are a lot of options on the table. We’ll see if anything else happens before the current CBA expires and an offseason freeze begins, but so far so good.

Let’s have a quick look at the areas that they need to address, and who knows, Atkins may just decide to make the roster better in ways that we didn’t see coming either.

Not done with the rotation

The Blue Jays are in a very strong position with their starting rotation now that Gausman is reportedly under contract. That’s especially the case after Berrios’ extension earlier this offseason, and those two will pair at the top of the rotation as a formidable duo for the next five years.

On top of those two the Jays still have Hyun Jin Ryu for two more seasons, and while he’s no longer viewed as the ace of the staff by any means, he could be a high-end third or fourth starter. The Jays have to be encouraged about the future of Alek Manoah as well, who dominated at times during his rookie season and should be a rotation fixture for the foreseeable future.

Having four spots locked down is extremely significant, and it gives Ross Atkins and company a fair bit of flexibility when it comes to how they round things out. There is no longer a whole lot of urgency around the rotation, both for the 2022 season and into the future, so they can be a lot more patient and see what the free agent or trade markets give them.

My guess is that the Blue Jays will prioritize other areas of the roster now that Gausman is signed, but I still expect them to bring in another veteran to compete for the fifth rotation spot. In an ideal world that role would go to Nate Pearson, but it’s hard to rely on him to be a consistent fixture in the rotation. Ross Stripling remains under contract for another year, and there is still organizational depth like Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, and more.

It’s still very possible that the Blue Jays could look at the trade market to round out their rotation, but my guess is they’ll find a one-year deal for a veteran starter. Someone like Dylan Bundy would be ideal (I’d love to see what Pete Walker could do with him), but it may be a pitcher that agrees for even less than Bundy is bound to make.

It all depends on how the Blue Jays spend the rest of their offseason budget, but my guess is they’ll be content to roll the dice with a low-cost veteran. That worked out well when they acquired Steven Matz from the Mets last winter, and we may not see the eventual candidate acquired until January or February. The Blue Jays are certainly in a strong place heading into December though, and the rotation should be a strength again in 2022.

How do you replace Marcus Semien?

The news of Kevin Gausman signing with the Blue Jays came at a great time because it helped soften the blow of Marcus Semien leaving for Texas. The Rangers made a VERY aggressive offer to Semien for seven years and 175 million dollars, and the 31 year old wisely signed on the dotted line. Even if he loved the Blue Jays and wanted to return, it’s hard to blame him for accepting an offer like that.

Now that we’ve confirmed that Semien won’t be back in the Blue Jays lineup next year the question becomes how Atkins and company will replace him. Semien played last season at second base, and the Jays used a combination of Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal at third. They could elect to move that duo back to second and find someone to play the hot corner, or look for a new second baseman and keep things the way they were in 2021. I believe that flexibility could turn out to be important.

If the Jays find a solution for second base they could try to convince another top free agent target like Javier Baez or Trevor Story to join a franchise that’s trending in the right direction, although that doesn’t seem terribly likely, especially after Semien set the market at such a favourable rate. More likely I would think that the Jays will explore the trade market, and a player like Ketel Marte would be a dream candidate. It remains to be seen if the Diamondbacks would make the 27 year old available, but he’s a solid second baseman who can also more than capable as a centre fielder, which could have value to the Blue Jays in the future as well. He also comes with three years of contract control at a very reasonable rate, so the acquisition cost would be huge.

If the Jays prefer to look for a third baseman they could always renew their interest in Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez. The 3x All-Star has two years remaining before he’ll be a free agent, and the Blue Jays are known to have asked about his availability last year at the trade deadline. If not Ramirez, the Jays could check in with a less-inspiring veteran like Kyle Seager, or if they’re looking to surprise everybody, Kris Bryant is still available as of this writing.

One way or another the Blue Jays are going to have to find a way to replace Semien. It’s probably next to impossible to find someone who can fill his shoes from this past season, but bringing in a talented player feels like a must.

You can never have enough pitching

The Blue Jays made a sneaky-good signing on the weekend by agreeing to a two-year contract with Yimi Garcia that could become a three-year deal if he reaches all of the incentives. The 31 year old spent time as a closer for the Miami Marlins last season before he was dealt to the Astros, and is a capable late-inning arm.

With the addition of Garcia the Blue Jays are in strong shape in the bullpen as well. A lot of that strength will depend on the health of their group as a whole, but right now I think the depth chart looks something like this:

1- Jordan Romano
2- Tim Mayza
3- Garcia
4- Adam Cimber
5- Trevor Richards
6- Julian Merryweather
7- Ryan Borucki
8- Pearson/Stripling

Depending on what happens with the fifth spot in the rotation, the Blue Jays could roll with one or both of Nate Pearson and/or Ross Stripling at the back of the pen. That would provide some nice length for the group, and Pearson could evolve into a significant weapon for the late innings with his overpowering fastball.

Speaking of elite fastballs, that’s exactly what Merryweather and Borucki can bring to the table if only they can stay healthy. For any Blue Jays fan that has followed this team over the last few seasons, you know that is a very big ‘if’.

With that in mind, I think the Blue Jays still need to bring in one more significant piece to add to the bullpen, and ideally someone else who can pitch in the late innings. Romano and Mayza were fantastic in 2021, but they’re both still relatively inexperienced in the roles. The more support they have, the better. Ideally Merryweather will be able to help in the 8th and 9th innings as well, and Garcia is going to be a nice arm to have that way.

However, if you could add one or even two more reliable veteran relievers then I think you have to do it. The 2021 campaign showed us just how important relief pitching depth can be, and even though the Blue Jays still have plenty of viable options that will likely pitch in Triple-A next season, their goals have to be different now. This is a franchise that has committed to at least 391 million to Springer, Berrios, and Gausman over the last 12 months, so skimping on the bullpen doesn’t seem all that wise.

I expect that there will be at least one more reputable arm added to the bullpen before Opening Day. Whether that comes from the free agent or trade market remains to be seen, and it could be another area that Atkins and company exercise some patience.