Where do the Blue Jays turn if they miss out on Ray and Gausman?

The best of the rest of the free agents

I wouldn’t say that it’s time to panic by any means, but I will acknowledge that several solid starters have already signed their next contracts. That includes Noah Syndergaard (Angels), Justin Verlander (Astros), Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers), Anthony DeSclafani (Giants), and former Blue Jay Steve Matz (Cardinals). To me it’s not so much about who has already come off of the board, it’s about the shrinking market in general. The less available starters there are, the more aggressive the needy clubs will become.

Thankfully there is still a fair bit of value on the free agent market beyond Ray, Gausman, and Stroman. There is a trio of former Cy Young veterans in Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke, although I wouldn’t expect any of them to become Blue Jays, unfortunately. Carlos Rodon is an intriguing candidate, especially if he can be had on a short-term deal, but I haven’t come across any reports linking the Blue Jays to the southpaw just yet.

My guess it the Jays would be more interested in the next tier of arms that could include the likes of Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, and maybe even Danny Duffy. None of those pitchers would match the top-of-the-rotation stuff of a guy like Ray, but there are only so many of those available. Berrios does give them a strong candidate to lead the rotation in a worst case, and Manoah and Ryu both have the upside of a #2 starter if all goes according to plan.

With Matz having signed with the Cardinals, it’s possible the Jays look for a free agent to fill out the back of their rotation. I imagine they’ll let Pearson and Stripling battle for that job as well, but it wouldn’t shock me if they signed a low-cost veteran to come to spring training and compete for a job. There are all kinds of candidates that could fit that description, and we likely won’t see that kind of deal signed until sometime in early 2022 once the market has sorted itself out a bit.

For now my expectation is that the Blue Jays are very much in on the talks with both Ray and Gausman, and likely have discussions started with other free agents as well. Ross Atkins will have more than one way of going about filling out the rotation, so we’ll see how the dominoes fall as the offseason continues. We may get some of the significant answers before Dec 2nd.

Trading for a veteran starter, you say?

If the Blue Jays can’t add the pieces they need for their rotation through free agency, there could be some great options on the trade market.

I really don’t expect there to be a lot of teams selling this offseason, but there are a few ways the Jays could go about this. First, they could go the traditional route and tap the shoulders of the rebuilding teams around baseball. That list might include the Oakland A’s, Cincinnati Reds, or Cleveland Guardians, among others, and it’s possible that none of those teams become sellers.

Assuming that the rumour mill heats up around the A’s and Reds in particular, that could mean the Blue Jays have a few more options to keep on their radar. The Reds have long been rumoured to be looking to cut payroll, already trading Tucker Barnhart for a minimal return in what many saw as a cost-cutting measure. If that’s one of the goals for the offseason for their front office, it’s possible that Sonny Gray or even Luis Castillo could be made available. It feels like we’ve been talking about them as potential trade candidates for a few years now, but this might be the offseason that one or both are finally moved. I’m sure Reds fans would be disappointed, but they’ve likely already lost Nick Castellanos as well, and the direction of the franchise could change for 2022 and beyond.

As for the A’s, they were on the periphery of the AL postseason race in 2021, but with an increasingly expensive payroll (by their standards) there have been plenty of rumours around their veteran players. The Yankees seem particularly enamoured with Matt Olson, and the Jays should likely be calling to see if any of their rotation pieces could be available. I doubt the A’s would trade Chris Bassitt, but with only two years left before he becomes a free agent it’s possible they could be talked into it. That likely goes for Frankie Montas too, who has two years before he’ll be a free agent as well, but wouldn’t it make more sense for the A’s to deal one of them now if they’re looking at a rebuild?

More likely the A’s could be willing to part with Sean Manaea, who has just one year left before he’ll hit the free agent market. I don’t know how much the Blue Jays would be willing to pay for a player with just one year left on their contract, but I also think it depends on the other moves that they make. Hypothetically, if they re-signed Marcus Semien to a long-term deal rather than giving that kind of term to a starter like Ray or Gausman, then trading for someone like Manaea makes a lot more sense to me.

My expectation is that the Blue Jays will work with the free agent market first when it comes to their efforts to improve the rotation, but thankfully there could be a few difference makers available on the trade market if that doesn’t work out.

The best of both worlds

With the Blue Jays having locked Jose Berrios down for the next seven years with his new extension, their rotation is in a pretty strong place for the long-term. That’s especially the case after Alek Manoah emerged and impressed in his rookie season in 2021, and also with Hyun Jin Ryu under contract for two more years. If Nate Pearson can ever stay healthy and harness his full potential then the Jays will really be in a great place, and re-signing Ray would be just would be the icing on the cake.

However, the Blue Jays would be wise to look at all kinds of back-up plans, and that includes ideas that could solve both short and long-term issues. Right now we know that they need another reliable starter for 2021, but that will also be the case for the next several years as well, especially after Ryu’s contract ends after the 2023 campaign. If the Jays wanted to “have their cake and eat it too”, finding a young, controllable starter would be better than Christmas morning for Ross Atkins and his front office team.

The great news is that sorta thing might just be available this winter, especially if the Miami Marlins seriously dip into the trade market. They have a plethora of talented young starting pitchers, including Sandy Alcantara (26 years old), Taylor Rogers (24), Pablo Lopez (25), Elieser Hernandez (26), Sixto Sanchez (23), and plenty more. There will be all kinds of teams that come calling if they start shopping one or more of them.

The Marlins are in an interesting place because they’re not far off from contending for a playoff spot in the National League, and I’m sure they’re looking to improve the roster. With that in mind, the most logical trade pieces they’d be looking for would be MLB-ready players who could improve their roster right away, and also into the future. Those players aren’t easy to find, but the Blue Jays might serve as a pretty good match here.

It’s possible the Blue Jays could call and offer someone like Alejandro Kirk as a centre piece of a trade, especially with Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire, and super-prospect Gabriel Moreno already in their system. Someone like Jordan Groshans, who isn’t that far off from his own MLB debut, could make a lot of sense here too. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but many fans throw around the idea of trading MLB players like Cavan Biggio or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as well.

If the Marlins decide they’re willing to trade one of their talented young starting pitchers, the Blue Jays should have the kind of MLB-ready pieces they’re looking for in order to make a competitive offer. I’m not saying there’s a perfect match here, but it’s not hard to see how the two clubs could work something out. Let’s just hope it works out better than the 2013 swap that was supposed to make the Blue Jays one of the World Series favourites.