Three starting pitchers the Blue Jays could pursue to replace Steven Matz

Kevin Gausman

A pitcher that has been on the Blue Jays radar since last offseason, right-hander Kevin Gausman is a free agent once again this winter. After spending the first five and a half-season of his career with the Baltimore Orioles, Gausman bounced around a couple of years before settling in with San Francisco during the 2019/2020 offseason.

Since moving to the Bay Area, Gausman has put up fantastic numbers, a 3.00 ERA through 45 appearances with 306 strikeouts, a 1.057 WHIP, and a 6.6 bWAR through the last two seasons (one and a half considering last year was shortened). Career-wise, Gausman sports a 4.02 ERA with 1161 strikeouts through 236 games, 197 of which were starts.

The Blue Jays were interested in Gausman last winter and offered him a three-year deal in the $40 million range but he decided to head back to San Francisco after they presented him with the qualifying offer. I can’t really blame him for taking a chance to improve his stock on a one-year prove-it deal, especially since he is in line for a raise after the season he put with the Giants this past year.

One reason Gausman does seem appealing to the Blue Jays is that he does have experience at the Rogers Centre from when he was a member of the Orioles, posting a 3.83 ERA through 12 appearances North of the border.

The market for the Colorado product is quite competitive, as the Giants, Seattle Mariners, and Los Angeles Angels all appear to be showing interest in the soon to be 31 year old alongside the Blue Jays. Landing Gausman would be a very effective replacement for Matz, considering the right-hander put up a 5.2 bWAR last season compared to the southpaw’s 2.0 bWAR.

Gausman will cost the Blue Jays more in terms of salary per year versus what Matz was offered by the club before he signed with the Cardinals but would be a great rotation piece alongside Hyun Jin Ryu, Jose Berrios, and Alek Manoah, further cemented if Ray returns to the fold as well.

Sonny Gray

It was announced recently that the Cincinnati Reds are looking to scale down their payroll and are now fielding trade calls on starting pitcher Sonny Gray. Gray is one of the more expensive pitchers on the roster, as he is owed just north of $10 million this season and has a club option for $12 million for next year before being eligible for free agency, so it makes sense why the Reds are looking for a suitable trade partner.

Gray has been a solid pitcher for most of his career, pitching to a 3.61 ERA through 223 appearances with 1221 strikeouts and a 1.220 WHIP. He did struggle when he was a member of the Yankees back in 2017 and 2018 but has been pretty dominant since joining the Reds, posting a 3.49 ERA and a 10.0 bWAR over the past three seasons. While the Reds may be looking to move the right-hander’s contract due to salary constraints, the Blue Jays should easily be able to accommodate Gray’s salary into their plans moving forward. The bigger question is how much prospect capital the Reds want in return for one of their top pitchers and if the Blue Jays are willing to match the price.

The Toronto Blue Jays just lost a solid rotation arm in Steven Matz to free agency but there are a few options out there to replace what the club has lost.

Last season, the Jays parted with two top prospects to land Jose Berrios, who was guaranteed to be on the roster for only one and a half more seasons before becoming a free agent. These worries were squashed when he signed the seven-year extension but the asking price for Gray might be high as well, something fans will have to consider in any potential deal. Obviously, these are two different pitchers with two different skill sets but a veteran pitcher with two years of team-friendly salary control will not come cheaply.

I wouldn’t go and say the club would need to move Orelvis Martinez or Gabriel Moreno for the starter (as they most likely would not) but somebody like Alejandro Kirk or Miguel Hiraldo could get the ball moving and provide some traction on a potential deal.

One thing to be cautious of when it comes to acquiring Gray is his past performance in the AL East, as he really did struggle when he was a member of the Yankees. The Tennessee product does have impressive stats at the Rogers Centre (2.80 ERA through eight starts) but boasts a 6.35 ERA at Yankee Stadium and a 7.78 ERA at Fenway, home of the Boston Red Sox, with both teams being clubs the Blue Jays will face quite a bit considering they are in the same division. On the other hand, Gray does have great numbers at Tropicana Field (2.97 ERA through six appearances) and could be a beneficial piece for the Blue Jays when they have to play in Tampa (until they move). Pick your poison.

With Gray being available, the Jays could look to solidify the rotation and replace Steven Matz with the veteran right-hander and his 3.4 bWAR from last season. The question will be what the price tag will be for his services and whether Ross Atkins and co. are willing to part with it to bring him to Toronto.

Jon Gray

Another starting pitcher who is gaining some traction this offseason is Jon Gray, who recently made headlines by turning down a multi-year contract from the Colorado Rockies. The deal was reportedly worth $35-40 million and the organization decided not to present him with a qualifying offer, standing in the same situation as the Blue Jays did with Steven Matz. While the door hasn’t officially closed on a return to the Rockies, Gray is starting to look like an attractive piece to any rotation but does come with some considerable risk.

For his career, the right-hander sports a 4.59 ERA through 152 appearances with 849 strikeouts and a 1.338 WHIP. The elevated ERA does come with the territory considering the Rockies home base is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the country but Gray’s numbers on the road are also a bit worrisome.

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One thing to consider is that he has spent the past seven seasons with the Rockies and the club has been struggling both on and off the field for the past few campaigns, especially after trading Nolan Arenado and the whole Trevor Story situation.

Gray is the perfect “change of scenery” candidate that could thrive in a new ballpark and with a new club but the risk will be there that he continues to carry a high-ERA, which if signed to a 3+ year contract, could become a sour situation very fast (and one Jays fans are a little used to with Tanner Roark just recently). Even with the elevated stats last year, Gray still finished with a 1.6 bWAR and just trailed behind Steven Matz. I will admit that I haven’t had the Rockies pitcher high on my priority list for the front office to go out and acquire but he is an option if the club misses out on Gausman and fails to bring back Ray.

Signing Gray may come with risk but also presents some upside, in that the club could get him for less than other free agent options like Kevin Gausman and he could turn things around and provide back end of the rotaiton relief that bodes well alongside Ryu, Berrios, and Manoah in the Blue Jays rotation.