Mid-tier free agent targets for Blue Jays’ rotation

Hyun Jin Ryu was the 2021 opening day starter for the Toronto Blue Jays and by the end of the season was arguably the fifth most effective pitcher in the rotation. Normally this would be a cause for concern, but for the Jays, it spoke to how great their rotation was by the end of the year.

As a team, the starting pitchers ended the season with the sixth-best ERA in MLB at 3.79 and 11th in fWAR (13.0) according to FanGraphs. But interestingly they ranked third in both ERA (3.53) and fWar (9.1) from July 1st onward. In addition to the unexpected Cy Young campaign of Robbie Ray and unsung heroics of Steven Matz, their great second half was supplemented by the acquisition of Jose Berrios and a stellar rookie performance by Alek Manoah. Though unfortunately, it all came together a little too late.

Moving forward, the long-term lockup of Berrios doesn’t necessarily mean the Toronto Blue Jays aren’t looking for top-tier pitching, especially via trade. But like many folks in 1999 looking to expand on their repertoire of dance moves, it might be worthwhile, for the time being, to move on from raising the roof, and explore how they could lift the rotation’s floor.

As of now the Blue Jays have three arms locked into the starting rotation, and although Berrios’ status as an ace is debatable, he and a full season of Manoah make for a pretty solid top of the rotation. Ryu who despite a shaky ending to last season, still ought to be productive, albeit his in-game leash may be a litter shorter as he enters his age 35 season.

This leaves two spots that need to be filled as Ray and Matz’s future with the club remains uncertain. While they do have the inhouse possibilities of Ross Stripling, who pitched an adequate 86.1 innings as a starter for them in 2021, and the optimistic option of Nate Pearson who pitched a less than adequate 2.1 innings, it might be worthwhile to search elsewhere for value to fill at least one of those spots.

Fortunately, this year’s free-agent class for starting pitchers is an embarrassment of riches, especially amongst those in the “mid-tier” category, which is exactly where they found Robbie Ray last offseason, so let’s take a look at a few interesting candidates.

Jon Gray

Age: 30

Position: RHP

Last Contract: 1yr/$6MM (avoided final year of arbitration)

2021 stats: 149.0 IP, 9.48 K/9, 3.50 BB/9, 1.27 HR/9, with a 4.59 ERA and 4.22 FIP, resulting in 2.5 fWAR.

Gray did not receive a qualifying offer, however, he reportedly turned down a deal from Colorado in the range of $35-40 million over three years, according to Nick Groke and Eno Sarris of The Athletic.

While Gray’s raw numbers are less than ideal, at least some of that can be attributed to Coors Field, right? Well, on the surface, his home/road splits don’t suggest he would fare any better in a different ballpark given his career ERA at Coors Field is 4.54, and on the road, it’s 4.65. There is, however, some compelling evidence that fatigue plays a larger role in starting pitchers’ efficacy while playing in Denver. This means Toronto could get more productivity out of Gray on a game-by-game basis than what the Rockies were able to.

Extending Jose Berrios is great for the Blue Jays in the long term, but moves still need to be made to improve the team’s rotation for 2022.

Another thing worthy of consideration is that Gray has a very similar pitch mix as Ray, both of whom throw a fastball and slider combination for over 85% of their pitches. Plus, Gray, like Ray, has above average fastball velocity and a walk rate that, though not as bad as Ray was at his worse, could still use improvement.

This could very well be meaningless, but it could also suggest that he’s a perfect client for Pete Walker who could immediately help improve his mechanics (and instruct when to strategically grunt), based on what he learned while working with Ray.

Alex Cobb

Age: 34

Position: RHP

Last Contract: 4 yrs/ $57MM

2021 stats: 93.1 IP, 9.45 K/9, 3.18 BB/9, 0.48 HR/9, with a 3.76 ERA and 2.92 FIP, resulting in 2.5 fWAR, which is tied with Alex Wood for tenth amongst free-agent starting pitchers in 2021.

The first thing to note when it comes to Cobb’s 2021 season is his ability to be productive via his high strikeout and low walk rate, despite the lack of innings he pitched due to a blister and wrist injury that caused him to miss a third of the season.

The second thing to note is his injury history, Cobb got Tommy John surgery at the beginning of 2016 and went down on a season-ending arm injury in late April 2019. Despite his solid production in 2021, the amount of time he’s missed in conjunction with the fact that he’s entering his age 34 season ought to cause concern.

He did, however, according to Baseball Savant, manage to post a barrel rate of just 4.2%, putting him in the top 6% of MLB pitchers in 2021. This was partly due to his ability to dance around the zone while still generating whiffs when he chooses to throw what would be a called strike.

Plus, his potential cost relative to the rest of the mid-tier arms available could mean he’d be an interesting flyer to round out the bottom of the rotation and perhaps add more competition for a spot in the rotation.

Danny Duffy

Age: 33

Position: LHP

Last Contract: 5 yr/ $65MM

2021 stats: 61.0 IP, 9.59 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, with a 2.51 ERA and 3.40 FIP, resulting in 1.6 fWAR.

There are a lot of reasons Duffy is unlikely to get a call from the Blue Jays early in the offseason. For starters, 2021 marked the first instance in the southpaw’s career in which he missed significant time, spending 117 days on the IL due to a recurring flexor strain in his left elbow.

Eyebrows should justifiably be raised when hearing the words “strain” and “elbow” with regards to signing a pitcher in his mid-thirties and the odds of a deal being worked out prior to a front office having a clear idea of the extent of his injury are next to nill.

Another potential speedbump for this hypothetical deal with Toronto is whether or not he would even consider playing for the Blue Jays. We’re still just four years removed from his tweet that read, “Bury me a Royal.”, and despite having been traded to the Dodgers at the deadline last season, he never officially took the mound, suggesting his existential loyalty to the team might still be intact and therefore worth preserving. Based on past career choices it’s not unreasonable to think that Duffy either re-signs on a team-friendly deal with the Royals or plays for a team in his home state of California.

However, a team that’s willing to properly utilize him might be able to take advantage of what led Duffy to increase his chase rate to 30.7%, and his whiff rate to 29.1%, both career highs according to Baseball Savant. Even his home run rate was slashed to the best in his career since the league-wide offensively quiet 2014 season, making it plausible that he could survive in the homer-prone parks of the AL East.