Toronto Blue Jays: Looking through a buy-low lens

The Blue Jays have managed to extract some remarkable value from their recent free agent signings. Who might they target this offseason?

We already know that if they’re serious about trying to retain one or both of Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien that they’re going to have to spend big to do so. Last season Ross Atkins and company struck one-year contract gold with both players, signing Ray for eight million on his way to likely winning the AL Cy Young award, and Semien for 18 million, only to be rewarded with production that was good enough for a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove award, and also a top-three finish in MVP voting.

While I don’t think Atkins and his team will shy away from a big-money long-term deal for the right player, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re looking for potential candidates that could give them similar levels of bargain-rate production. Using Semien this past season as an example, he didn’t come cheap at 18 million, but he far, far outproduced his salary in terms of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) value that he brought to the Blue Jays.

I’ve talked about some buy-low candidates before, but today I’d like to focus more on players that I think could far exceed their projected free agent value. I feel like the Blue Jays are always on the hunt for that type of player, and have many that fit the description on the current roster. As they balance their immediate and long-term needs, I’m sure it’s still a central idea in their offseason plans.

Adding to the OF/DH depth

As I look at the list of potential free agents, there’s one name that sticks out to me right away as the type of player I’ve been describing, and that’s Michael Conforto of the New York Mets.

The complicating factor here is that the Mets gave Conforto a Qualifying Offer, which likely means the 28 year old is looking for a multi-year deal. That said, it would also make some sense if he was open to a “show me” contract to re-establish his value after a down 2021 campaign. He slashed just .232/.344/.384 with 14 home runs and 55 RBI across 406 at-bats.

It’s nowhere near the place of leverage that that All-Star outfielder was in previously, which is why it comes as a surprise to me that he’s reportedly going to turn down the Mets offer. If that’s the case, I think the Blue Jays should be among the first teams in line to give his agent a call even with the QO attached.

Atkins and company have a bit of room to play in that regard, at least in the event that one or both of Ray and Semien leave. Those two have the QO attached to them as well, so it’s possible the Jays could gain a pair of draft picks if they can’t re-sign their own. In that case though, I’m sure the front office would have a slightly easier time giving up a pick in order to sign a player with the QO attached, such as Conforto.

It might still cost you somewhere in the neighbourhood of 18 million to get him under contract, but I think there’s potential that he could outperform that kind of deal. His bWAR has ranged from 2.1-3.7 throughout his career, and at 28 years old he should just be entering his prime. It wouldn’t hurt to take the majority of his at-bats in a hitter-friendly park like the Rogers Centre either.

I doubt that a player like Conforto will be a priority for the Blue Jays, as they do already have a full outfield. That said, I think another outfielder that could allow the trio to rotate through the DH-spot would be ideal, and the Washington native’s left-handed bat would bring some needed balance. He’s also spent some time in centre field, and that wouldn’t hurt as added depth behind George Springer either.

I don’t know that I’d put money on Conforto coming to the Blue Jays, but as for looking for value on the open market, I think he’s a great candidate.

An unconventional “bargain”

In many cases, when I’m talking about a bargain situation with a potential free agent it usually means that it’s a short-term deal, and often a one-year contract. However, there’s one player on this year’s market that I think could be a bargain on a multi-year pact, and I fully expect the Blue Jays to be involved.

That player would be former Colorado Rockies starter Jon Gray, who will hit the open market having just turned 30 years old earlier this month. MLBtraderumors.com has the right-hander projected for a 4-year, 56 million dollar contract with his next team, and he strikes me as someone who could provide a lot of value on a mid-range contract like that.

While a matching career and 2021 ERA of 4.59 doesn’t jump off the page, we also have to take that with a grain of salt while remembering that he’s had to pitch in Colorado throughout his career. Scouts love his mid-upper nineties fastball, and it’s not hard to find folks who are talking about how much better he’ll be when he signs somewhere else. With the presence of Pete Walker in Toronto, who has a knack for getting the most out of starting pitchers who haven’t yet reached their potential, it’s a tantalizing idea to think about.

The hesitation with banking on someone like Gray is that there are so many other potential options available on this year’s market, and several are a lot more proven. For a team like the Blue Jays that are entering into an obvious win-now phase, spending their money on more of a “sure thing” might be a more desirable play here.

That said, I’m not sure there are many pitchers with his upside that could be available for 14-15 million per season, at least not on the free agent market. If Gray turns out to be as good as so many believe that he’ll be, it could be the kind of sneaky signing that makes or breaks a season. After all, the Jays only missed the playoffs by one game in 2021.

How do you replace Semien if he leaves?

There are so many different ways the Blue Jays’ offseason could work out, and it’s hard to wrap your head around how one move will set off dominoes in other directions. One of the most significant will be the status of Marcus Semien.

While I’m confident that the Blue Jays will make some sort of effort to retain their star second baseman, it wouldn’t shock me if they were outbid by another team in need of a premium middle infielder. It’s a deep market of star shortstops, but it sounds like the list of interested teams will be much longer, and Semien will be highly coveted.

My knee-jerk reaction to the idea of Semien leaving is to think about the trade market. That could produce potential All-Star level options like Jose Ramirez in Cleveland, Matt Chapman from the A’s, or maybe even Ketel Marte from the Diamondbacks if the Blue Jays are really preparing to pay big. The flexibility of both Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal means the Jays can look at both second and third baseman if they need to find a replacement for Semien.

However, why not look at another shortstop? And if they are prepared to pay big to keep Semien, would they pay a little bit less for a younger but comparable player like Trevor Story?

The more I look at this year’s crop of free agent infielders, the more I feel like Story is a bit of a forgotten man in terms of the top of the market. That’s somewhat understandable when you consider that Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, and Semien are also free agents, but there’s no reason to undersell what the 29 year old has done as a big leaguer. Yes, his numbers are inflated a bit because he’s played his home games at Coors Field as a member of the Colorado Rockies, but he’s still a premium hitter.

MLBTR has Story slated to receive a contract of six years and 126 million, while they’ve predicted six years and 138 million for Semien. The difference is an AAV of 21 million for Story vs. 23 million for Semien, but again, there’s a two-year age gap in favour of Story here.

For what it’s worth, I don’t know that I see the Blue Jays getting into the market for Story unless they really see an opportunity that they like. That said, I can’t help but wonder if that opportunity is about to present itself this offseason, and I’m very curious if they’re even considering it as an option. Depending on how things shake out this winter, Story could end up being the best “value” over the life of the next contracts for this year’s free agent crop.

A sneaky-good way to improve the bullpen

It’s not exactly a secret that the Blue Jays will be looking to improve their bullpen this offseason, even after the acquisitions of Trevor Richards and Adam Cimber, who thankfully will both return in 2022. I can’t imagine that’s going to be enough to satisfy the front office or the coaching staff though.

In an ideal world the Blue Jays would be able to find someone who is a capable set-up man for Jordan Romano, and hopefully they’d be capable of the occasional save opportunity as well. Romano could shift into a set-up role if the right veteran were acquired, like a Craig Kimbrel from the White Sox (who may be available on the trade market), or if they signed someone like Kenley Jansen. However, I’d be much more interested in chatting with an old organizational friend in Kendall Graveman, who the Jays selected in the 8th round of the 2013 MLB draft.

Graveman was absolutely lights out as the closer for the Seattle Mariners last season, and then they inexplicably dealt him to the Astros where he didn’t fare quite as a well in a set-up role. I’m not sure that the role he serves in matters, like some folks would tell you that it does for a guy like Craig Kimbrel, but I do know that Graveman is a valuable reliever either way.

MLBTR has predicted three years and 27 million for the right-hander, and that could be a bargain for a pitcher like him based on market rates for late-inning relievers these days. I’m not sure that I’d bet on him getting three years either, so if there’s a chance to sign him for two or even three years at less than 10 million per season, I have to think the Blue Jays are interested.

The presence of guys like Romano, Tim Mayza, Cimber, and even wild cards like Julian Merryweather and Nate Pearson make for a promising bullpen for the Blue Jays in 2022 and beyond. However, a known commodity like Graveman might go a long way toward shoring things up, and could provide a ton of value at a pretty reasonable rate.